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Astronomers have uncovered 31 of the oldest known quasars, including the two earliest ever detected, shining from a time when the universe was only about 670 million years old。 Powered by supermassive black holes billions of times the Sun’s mass, these incredibly bright objects challenge scientists’ understanding of how such enormous black holes fo
In recent decades, asset booms and busts have been important factors in macroeconomic fluctuations in both industrial and developing countries. In light of this experience, how, if at all, should central bankers respond to asset price volatility? We have addressed this issue in previous work (Bernanke and Gertler, 1999). The context of our earlier study was the relatively new, but increasingly popular, monetary-policy framework known as inflation-targeting (see e.g., Bernanke and Frederic Mishkin, 1997). In an inflation-targeting framework, publicly announced medium-term inflation targets provide a nominal anchor for monetary policy, while allowing the central bank some flexibility to help stabilize the real economy in the short run. The inflation-targeting approach gives a specific answer to the question of how central bankers should respond to asset prices: Changes in asset prices should affect monetary policy only to the extent that they affect the central bank’s forecast of inflation. To a first approximation, once the predictive content of asset prices for inflation has been accounted for, there should be no additional response of monetary policy to assetprice fluctuations. In use now for about a decade, inflationtargeting has generally performed well in practice. However, so far this approach has not often been stress-tested by large swings in asset prices. Our earlier research employed simulations of a small, calibrated macroeconomic model to examine how an inflation-targeting policy (defined as one in which the central bank’s instrument interest rate responds primarily to changes in expected inflation) might fare in the face of a boom-and-bust cycle in asset prices. We found that an aggressive inflationtargeting policy rule (in our simulations, one in which the coefficient relating the instrument interest rate to expected inflation is 2.0) substantially stabilizes both output and inflation in scenarios in which a bubble in stock prices develops and then collapses, as well as in scenarios in which technology shocks drive stock prices. Intuitively, inflation-targeting central banks automatically accommodate productivity gains that lift stock prices, while offsetting purely speculative increases or decreases in stock values whose primary effects are through aggregate demand. Conditional on a strong policy response to expected inflation, we found little if any additional gains from allowing an independent response of central-bank policy to the level of asset prices. In our view, there are good reasons, outside of our formal model, to worry about attempts by central banks to influence asset prices, including the fact that (as history has shown) the effects of such attempts on market psychology are dangerously unpredictable. Hence, we concluded that inflationtargeting central banks need not respond to asset prices, except insofar as they affect the inflation forecast. In the spirit of recent work on robust control, the exercises in our earlier paper analyzed the performance of policy rules in worst-case † Discussants: Robert Shiller, Yale University; Glenn Rudebusch, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University.
Scientists are raising concerns that we may be overlooking evidence of extraterrestrial life even when it is present。 Hidden biosignatures, limitations in detection technology, and assumptions about what life should look like can all create dangerous false negatives。 The researchers say future missions should focus not only on finding life, but als
Two newly confirmed "super-puff" planets are so diffuse that they are less dense than cotton candy, despite being about the size of Jupiter。 Their rare orbital relationship and enormous, lightweight atmospheres could provide valuable clues about how some of the strangest planets in the galaxy come to exist
A new quantum device can generate precisely controlled bursts of sound-like particles, or phonons, by forcing electrons through an ultra-thin crystal at extremely low temperatures。 The surprising behavior pushes beyond the limits predicted by current theories, suggesting scientists need to rethink how energy moves through advanced materials。 In the
A major breakthrough in quantum technology has turned magnons, tiny magnetic waves once considered too short-lived for practical use, into promising carriers of quantum information。 Researchers extended their lifetime by nearly 100 times, reaching up to 18 microseconds, and discovered that the main limitation is not a law of physics but the purity
A newly developed material can control and "program" heat, allowing it to direct thermal radiation, switch modes, and remember its settings without continuous power。 The innovation could lead to smarter infrared sensors, better energy technologies, and memory devices that use light and heat instead of electrical charges
Scientists have combined machine learning with quantum physics to discover two new superconductors and create a much faster way to search for many more。 The technique could bring researchers significantly closer to the long-sought goal of a room-temperature superconductor
Reinforcement learning uses error information to adjust control algorithms
Ultra-fine bubbles may offer a cleaner way to perfect inkjet printing for next-generation electronics。 By simply changing the number of bubbles in each droplet, researchers were able to dramatically reshape the final printed pattern without leaving behind unwanted chemical residues
An unusual gravitational wave signal has renewed hopes that primordial black holes, long considered purely theoretical, may finally be within reach of discovery。 If confirmed, they could solve one of astronomy's greatest mysteries by explaining the nature of dark matter
Water’s odd behavior becomes even more dramatic when it is supercooled, but scientists have struggled to compare the many different ways of describing its microscopic structure。 Researchers at the University of Osaka used an AI model trained on computer simulations to evaluate 16 different structural descriptors。 The system identified the most effe
NASA is marking the United States' 250th birthday with four striking red, white, and blue images of deep space from the Chandra X-ray Observatory。 The collection features an exploded star, a stellar nursery, a galaxy where stars are rapidly forming, and a galaxy cluster that provides evidence for dark matter
Researchers have created an AI-based simulation that makes it much faster to model how neutron star mergers produce many of the universe's heaviest elements。 The new tool could improve predictions of these powerful explosions while helping scientists better connect observations in space with experiments on Earth