Whether natural factors could interpret the rise of the Earth's surface temperature is still controversial. Though numerous recent researches have reported apparent correlations between solar activity and the Earth's climate, solar activity has encountered a big problem when describing the rapid global warming after 1970s. Our investigation shows the good positive correlations between the Earth's surface Ultraviolet irradiance (280-400 nm) and the Earth's surface temperature both in temporal and spatial variations by analyzing the global surface Ultraviolet irradiance (280-400 nm) and global surface temperature data from 1980-1999. The rise of CO$_2$ cannot interpret the good positive correlations, and we could even get an opposite result to the good correlations when employing the rise of CO$_2$ to describe the relation between them. Based on the good positive correlations, we suggest a new effect, named "Highly Excited Water Vapor" (HEWV) effect, which can interpret how the Sun influences the Earth's surface temperature reasonably, including the rapid warming after 1970s.
This research examines how the emotional tone of human-AI interactions shapes ChatGPT and human behavior. In a between-subject experiment, we asked participants to express a specific emotion while working with ChatGPT (GPT-4.0) on two tasks, including writing a public response and addressing an ethical dilemma. We found that compared to interactions where participants maintained a neutral tone, ChatGPT showed greater improvement in its answers when participants praised ChatGPT for its responses. Expressing anger towards ChatGPT also led to a higher albeit smaller improvement relative to the neutral condition, whereas blaming ChatGPT did not improve its answers. When addressing an ethical dilemma, ChatGPT prioritized corporate interests less when participants expressed anger towards it, while blaming increases its emphasis on protecting the public interest. Additionally, we found that people used more negative, hostile, and disappointing expressions in human-human communication after interactions during which participants blamed rather than praised for their responses. Together, our findings demonstrate that the emotional tone people apply in human-AI interactions not only shape Cha
LLM-based agents depend on effective tool-use policies to solve complex tasks, yet optimizing these policies remains challenging due to delayed supervision and the difficulty of credit assignment in long-horizon trajectories. Existing optimization approaches tend to be either monolithic, which are prone to entangling behaviors, or single-aspect, which ignore cross-module error propagation. To address these limitations, we propose EvoTool, a self-evolving framework that optimizes a modular tool-use policy via a gradient-free evolutionary paradigm. EvoTool decomposes agent's tool-use policy into four modules, including Planner, Selector, Caller, and Synthesizer, and iteratively improves them in a self-improving loop through three novel mechanisms. Trajectory-Grounded Blame Attribution uses diagnostic traces to localize failures to a specific module. Feedback-Guided Targeted Mutation then edits only that module via natural-language critique. Diversity-Aware Population Selection preserves complementary candidates to ensure solution diversity. Across four benchmarks, EvoTool outperforms strong baselines by over 5 points on both GPT-4.1 and Qwen3-8B, while achieving superior efficiency a
The defensive performance of football players is commonly measured through a limited number of actions like tackles and interceptions while their continuous impact through positional behaviour has hardly been studied before. We formulate this problem as an attribution over multi-agent spatiotemporal trajectories without player-level ground truth labels, where event-level changes of expected threat are distributed among individuals. We propose a framework that performs this attribution using player involvement scores calculated from defensive pressure areas (DPAs). By computing role-conditioned baselines within automatically detected team structures, we can determine each defender's expected responsibility for threat created through arbitrary passes. The validity and robustness of this approach are evaluated on a uniquely extensive cross-gender and cross-competition data set, including positional and event data from 64 matches of the men's World Cup, 116 matches of the women's German Bundesliga and 336 matches of the men's German 3. Liga. In the absence of a ground truth, we propose an evaluation protocol that combines multiple relatively weak proxies into robust summary scores. We
Ideologically homogeneous online environments - often described as "echo chambers" or "filter bubbles" - are widely seen as drivers of polarization, radicalization, and misinformation. A central debate asks whether such homophily stems primarily from algorithmic curation or users' preference for like-minded peers. This study challenges that view by showing that homogeneity can emerge in the absence of both filtering algorithms and user preferences. Using an agent-based model inspired by Schelling's model of residential segregation, we demonstrate that weak individual preferences, combined with simple group-based interaction structures, can trigger feedback loops that drive communities toward segregation. Once a small imbalance forms, cascades of user exits and regrouping amplify homogeneity across the system. Counterintuitively, algorithmic filtering - often blamed for "filter bubbles" - can in fact sustain diversity by stabilizing mixed communities. These findings highlight online polarization as an emergent system-level dynamic and underscore the importance of applying a complexity lens to the study of digital public spheres.
This paper argues that conventional blame practices fall short of capturing the complexity of moral experiences, neglecting power dynamics and discriminatory social practices. It is evident that robots, embodying roles linked to specific social groups, pose a risk of reinforcing stereotypes of how these groups behave or should behave, so they set a normative and descriptive standard. In addition, we argue that faulty robots might create expectations of who is supposed to compensate and repair after their errors, where social groups that are already disadvantaged might be blamed disproportionately if they do not act according to their ascribed roles. This theoretical and empirical gap becomes even more urgent to address as there have been indications of potential carryover effects from Human-Robot Interactions (HRI) to Human-Human Interactions (HHI). We therefore urge roboticists and designers to stay in an ongoing conversation about how social traits are conceptualised and implemented in this technology. We also argue that one solution could be to 'embrace the glitch' and to focus on constructively disrupting practices instead of prioritizing efficiency and smoothness of interactio
After major disasters, formal inquiries become arenas where responsibility is publicly contested. While extensive research has examined blame attribution through qualitative and actor-centred approaches, the relational structure of blame within formal accountability processes remains poorly understood. Using evidence from the Grenfell Tower Inquiry, this study analyses the web of blame presented during the Phase 2 closing proceedings, in which Counsel to the Inquiry synthesised how core participants publicly attributed responsibility to one another. We represent this synthesis as a directed network and examine its structural properties using standard tools from network analysis. The resulting configuration is interconnected, with pronounced reciprocity and local clustering, indicating that responsibility claims were articulated within a dense institutional environment rather than as isolated, one-to-one accusations. Comparisons with neutral benchmark models show that several observed features depart from expectations based on simple structural constraints alone, revealing patterned organisation in the public articulation of blame within the Inquiry. By applying network-analytic met
This paper studies the supply and effects of causal rhetoric in U.S. politics. We define causal rhetoric as assigning responsibility for political outcomes, via claims of blame and merit. Training a supervised classifier, we detect causal rhetoric in over a decade of congressional tweets, finding that its supply has risen rapidly and pervasively, displacing affective messaging. We show that the production of causal rhetoric involves a trade-off between revenues and costs. First, quasi-random variation in Twitter adoption shows that blame increases small-donor revenues by expanding donor count, while merit raises average donation size. Second, fine-grained legislative data suggest that policy ownership determines relative costs: blame is cheaper for opponents, merit for proposers. Finally, causal rhetoric has downstream effects on societal outcomes, fostering protest activity and shaping polarization and institutional trust.
The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a significant rise in the spread of misinformation on online platforms such as Twitter. Oftentimes this growth is blamed on the idea of the "echo chamber." However, the behavior said to characterize these echo chambers exists in two dimensions. The first is in a user's social interactions, where they are said to stick with the same clique of like-minded users. The second is in the content of their posts, where they are said to repeatedly espouse homogeneous ideas. In this study, we link the two by using Twitter's network of retweets to study social interactions and topic modeling to study tweet content. In order to measure the diversity of a user's interactions over time, we develop a novel metric to track the speed at which they travel through the social network. The application of these analysis methods to misinformation-focused data from the pandemic demonstrates correlation between social behavior and tweet content. We believe this correlation supports the common intuition about how antisocial users behave, and further suggests that it holds even in subcommunities already rife with misinformation.
Deep learning methods have been widely used as an end-to-end modeling strategy of electrical energy systems because of their conveniency and powerful pattern recognition capability. However, due to the "closed-box" nature, deep learning methods have long been blamed for their poor interpretability when modeling a physical system. In this paper, we introduce a novel neural network structure, Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN), to achieve "glass-box" modeling for electrical energy systems to enhance the interpretability. The most distinct feature of KAN lies in the learnable activation function together with the sparse training and symbolification process. Consequently, KAN can express the physical process with concise and explicit mathematical formulas while remaining the nonlinear-fitting capability of deep neural networks. Simulation results based on three electrical energy systems demonstrate the effectiveness of KAN in the aspects of interpretability, accuracy, robustness and generalization ability.
Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) often exhibit failure modes in which the PDE residual loss converges while the solution error stays large, a phenomenon traditionally blamed on local optima separated from the true solution by steep loss barriers. We challenge this understanding by demonstrate that the real culprit is insufficient arithmetic precision: with standard FP32, the LBFGS optimizer prematurely satisfies its convergence test, freezing the network in a spurious failure phase. Simply upgrading to FP64 rescues optimization, enabling vanilla PINNs to solve PDEs without any failure modes. These results reframe PINN failure modes as precision induced stalls rather than inescapable local minima and expose a three stage training dynamic unconverged, failure, success whose boundaries shift with numerical precision. Our findings emphasize that rigorous arithmetic precision is the key to dependable PDE solving with neural networks.
The number of local model-agnostic explanation techniques proposed has grown rapidly recently. One main reason is that the bar for developing new explainability techniques is low due to the lack of optimal evaluation measures. Without rigorous measures, it is hard to have concrete evidence of whether the new explanation techniques can significantly outperform their predecessors. Our study proposes a new taxonomy for evaluating local explanations: robustness, evaluation using ground truth from synthetic datasets and interpretable models, model randomization, and human-grounded evaluation. Using this proposed taxonomy, we highlight that all categories of evaluation methods, except those based on the ground truth from interpretable models, suffer from a problem we call the "blame problem." In our study, we argue that this category of evaluation measure is a more reasonable method for evaluating local model-agnostic explanations. However, we show that even this category of evaluation measures has further limitations. The evaluation of local explanations remains an open research problem.
Scholars have not asked why so many governments created ad hoc scientific advisory bodies (ahSABs) to address the Covid-19 pandemic instead of relying on existing public health infrastructure. We address this neglected question with an exploratory study of the US, UK, Sweden, Italy, Poland, and Uganda. Drawing on our case studies and the blame-avoidance literature, we find that ahSABs are created to excuse unpopular policies and take the blame should things go wrong. Thus, membership typically represents a narrow range of perspectives. An ahSAB is a good scapegoat because it does little to reduce government discretion and has limited ability to deflect blame back to government. Our explanation of our deviant case of Sweden, that did not create and ahSAB, reinforces our general principles. We draw the policy inference that ahSAB membership should be vetted by the legislature to ensure broad membership.
Cognitive and psychological studies on morality have proposed underlying linguistic and semantic factors. However, laboratory experiments in the philosophical literature often lack the nuances and complexity of real life. This paper examines how well the findings of these cognitive studies generalize to a corpus of over 30,000 narratives of tense social situations submitted to a popular social media forum. These narratives describe interpersonal moral situations or misgivings; other users judge from the post whether the author (protagonist) or the opposing side (antagonist) is morally culpable. Whereas previous work focuses on predicting the polarity of normative behaviors, we extend and apply natural language processing (NLP) techniques to understand the effects of descriptions of the people involved in these posts. We conduct extensive experiments to investigate the effect sizes of features to understand how they affect the assignment of blame on social media. Our findings show that aggregating psychology theories enables understanding real-life moral situations. Moreover, our results suggest that there exist biases in blame assignment on social media, such as males are more like
Artificial intelligence (AI) systems can cause harm to people. This research examines how individuals react to such harm through the lens of blame. Building upon research suggesting that people blame AI systems, we investigated how several factors influence people's reactive attitudes towards machines, designers, and users. The results of three studies (N = 1,153) indicate differences in how blame is attributed to these actors. Whether AI systems were explainable did not impact blame directed at them, their developers, and their users. Considerations about fairness and harmfulness increased blame towards designers and users but had little to no effect on judgments of AI systems. Instead, what determined people's reactive attitudes towards machines was whether people thought blaming them would be a suitable response to algorithmic harm. We discuss implications, such as how future decisions about including AI systems in the social and moral spheres will shape laypeople's reactions to AI-caused harm.
Crash localization, an important step in debugging crashes, is challenging when dealing with an extremely large number of diverse applications and platforms and underlying root causes. Large-scale error reporting systems, e.g., Windows Error Reporting (WER), commonly rely on manually developed rules and heuristics to localize blamed frames causing the crashes. As new applications and features are routinely introduced and existing applications are run under new environments, developing new rules and maintaining existing ones become extremely challenging. We propose a data-driven solution to address the problem. We start with the first large-scale empirical study of 362K crashes and their blamed methods reported to WER by tens of thousands of applications running in the field. The analysis provides valuable insights on where and how the crashes happen and what methods to blame for the crashes. These insights enable us to develop DeepAnalyze, a novel multi-task sequence labeling approach for identifying blamed frames in stack traces. We evaluate our model with over a million real-world crashes from four popular Microsoft applications and show that DeepAnalyze, trained with crashes fro
A question we can ask of multi-agent systems is whether the agents' collective interaction satisfies particular goals or specifications, which can be either individual or collective. When a collaborative goal is not reached, or a specification is violated, a pertinent question is whether any agent is to blame. This paper considers a two-agent synchronous setting and a formal language to specify when agents' collaboration is required. We take a deontic approach and use obligations, permissions, and prohibitions to capture notions of non-interference between agents. We also handle reparations, allowing violations to be corrected or compensated. We give trace semantics to our logic, and use it to define blame assignment for violations. We give an automaton construction for the logic, which we use as the base for model checking and blame analysis. We also further provide quantitative semantics that is able to compare different interactions in terms of the required reparations.
In recent years, public discourse has blamed digital technologies for making people feel "alone together," distracting us from engaging with one another, even when we are interacting in-person. We argue that in order to design technologies that foster and augment co-located interactions, we need to first understand the context in which enjoyable co-located socialization takes place. We address this gap by surveying and interviewing over 1,000 U.S.-based participants to understand what, where, with whom, how, and why people enjoy spending time in-person. Our findings suggest that people enjoy engaging in everyday activities with individuals with whom they have strong social ties because it helps enable nonverbal cues, facilitate spontaneity, support authenticity, encourage undivided attention, and leverage the physicality of their bodies and the environment. We conclude by providing a set of recommendations for designers interested in creating co-located technologies that encourage social engagement and relationship building.
Transcending the binary categorization of racist texts, our study takes cues from social science theories to develop a multi-dimensional model for racism detection, namely stigmatization, offensiveness, blame, and exclusion. With the aid of BERT and topic modeling, this categorical detection enables insights into the underlying subtlety of racist discussion on digital platforms during COVID-19. Our study contributes to enriching the scholarly discussion on deviant racist behaviours on social media. First, a stage-wise analysis is applied to capture the dynamics of the topic changes across the early stages of COVID-19 which transformed from a domestic epidemic to an international public health emergency and later to a global pandemic. Furthermore, mapping this trend enables a more accurate prediction of public opinion evolvement concerning racism in the offline world, and meanwhile, the enactment of specified intervention strategies to combat the upsurge of racism during the global public health crisis like COVID-19. In addition, this interdisciplinary research also points out a direction for future studies on social network analysis and mining. Integration of social science perspec