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Selecting which companies to approach is a central challenge in business-to-business (B2B) sales, where decisions are often based on manual research and fragmented information sources. Modern B2B sales platforms centralize company records and use learned company embeddings to support tasks such as recommending and prioritizing potential clients. In this study, we investigate whether enriching these company embeddings with Semantic knowledge from DBpedia improves downstream interaction-prediction performance, within a pipeline that integrates structured company attributes and text embeddings deployed on a real B2B platform. We evaluate the learned embeddings on a downstream interaction prediction task using real user feedback data from the platform. Results show that DBpedia enrichment improves downstream performance, with gains observed on ranking and discrimination metrics.
Uplift modeling has achieved significant success in various fields, particularly in online marketing. It is a method that primarily utilizes machine learning and deep learning to estimate individual treatment effects. This paper we apply uplift modeling to analyze the effect of company adjustment on their financial status, and we treat these adjustment as treatments or interventions in this study. Although there have been extensive studies and application regarding binary treatments, multiple treatments, and continuous treatments, company adjustment are often more complex than these scenarios, as they constitute a series of multiple time-dependent actions. The effect estimation of company adjustment needs to take into account not only individual treatment traits but also the temporal order of this series of treatments. This study collects a real-world data set about company financial statements and reported behavior in Luxembourg for the experiments. First, we use two meta-learners and three other well-known uplift models to analyze different company adjustment by simplifying the adjustment as binary treatments. Furthermore, we propose a new uplift modeling framework (MTDnet) to ad
In the investment industry, it is often essential to carry out fine-grained company similarity quantification for a range of purposes, including market mapping, competitor analysis, and mergers and acquisitions. We propose and publish a knowledge graph, named CompanyKG, to represent and learn diverse company features and relations. Specifically, 1.17 million companies are represented as nodes enriched with company description embeddings; and 15 different inter-company relations result in 51.06 million weighted edges. To enable a comprehensive assessment of methods for company similarity quantification, we have devised and compiled three evaluation tasks with annotated test sets: similarity prediction, competitor retrieval and similarity ranking. We present extensive benchmarking results for 11 reproducible predictive methods categorized into three groups: node-only, edge-only, and node+edge. To the best of our knowledge, CompanyKG is the first large-scale heterogeneous graph dataset originating from a real-world investment platform, tailored for quantifying inter-company similarity.
With Company2Vec, the paper proposes a novel application in representation learning. The model analyzes business activities from unstructured company website data using Word2Vec and dimensionality reduction. Company2Vec maintains semantic language structures and thus creates efficient company embeddings in fine-granular industries. These semantic embeddings can be used for various applications in banking. Direct relations between companies and words allow semantic business analytics (e.g. top-n words for a company). Furthermore, industry prediction is presented as a supervised learning application and evaluation method. The vectorized structure of the embeddings allows measuring companies similarities with the cosine distance. Company2Vec hence offers a more fine-grained comparison of companies than the standard industry labels (NACE). This property is relevant for unsupervised learning tasks, such as clustering. An alternative industry segmentation is shown with k-means clustering on the company embeddings. Finally, this paper proposes three algorithms for (1) firm-centric, (2) industry-centric and (3) portfolio-centric peer-firm identification.
An insurance company, as a risk bearer, is exposed to the likelihood of running into ruin. This is the situation where the initial surplus falls below zero. There is the need to find the required start-up capital to hedge against insolvency. Most researchers, irrespective of whether the test for claim dependency holds or not, assume claim independence in their computing of ruin probabilities to start up their initial capital. The objective of this study is to carry out comparative sensitivity analysis of ruin probability under both assumptions of dependence and independence, irrespective of whether the data exhibits independence or not, based on data from an insurance company in Ghana. Secondary data from an insurance company was obtained from the National Insurance Commission (NIC) for the period of 2013 to 2017. The study employed copulas to determine the claim dependence among the various insurance products and the company in general. The study concluded that when there is dependence in the claim data, computing the ruin probability based on the assumption of independence results in underestimation. Among the various insurance products, the most profitable insurance product was
Determining company similarity is a vital task in finance, underpinning risk management, hedging, and portfolio diversification. Practitioners often rely on sector and industry classifications such as SIC and GICS codes to gauge similarity, the former being used by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the latter widely used by the investment community. Since these classifications lack granularity and need regular updating, using clusters of embeddings of company descriptions has been proposed as a potential alternative, but the lack of interpretability in token embeddings poses a significant barrier to adoption in high-stakes contexts. Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) have shown promise in enhancing the interpretability of Large Language Models (LLMs) by decomposing Large Language Model (LLM) activations into interpretable features. Moreover, SAEs capture an LLM's internal representation of a company description, as opposed to semantic similarity alone, as is the case with embeddings. We apply SAEs to company descriptions, and obtain meaningful clusters of equities. We benchmark SAE features against SIC-codes, Industry codes, and Embeddings. Our results demonstrate that
Product co-creation based on company-sponsored online community has come to be a paradigm of developing new products collaboratively with customers. In such a product co-creation campaign, the sponsoring company needs to interact intensively with active community members about the design scheme of the product. We call the collection of the rates of the company's response to active community members at all time in the co-creation campaign as a company response policy (CRP). This paper addresses the problem of finding a cost-effective CRP (the CRP problem). First, we introduce a novel community state evolutionary model and, thereby, establish an optimal control model for the CRP problem (the CRP model). Second, based on the optimality system for the CRP model, we present an iterative algorithm for solving the CRP model (the CRP algorithm). Thirdly, through extensive numerical experiments, we conclude that the CRP algorithm converges and the resulting CRP exhibits excellent cost benefit. Consequently, we recommend the resulting CRP to companies that embrace product co-creation. Next, we discuss how to implement the resulting CRP. Finally, we investigate the effect of some factors on t
Company fundamentals are key to assessing companies' financial and overall success and stability. Forecasting them is important in multiple fields, including investing and econometrics. While statistical and contemporary machine learning methods have been applied to many time series tasks, there is a lack of comparison of these approaches on this particularly challenging data regime. To this end, we try to bridge this gap and thoroughly evaluate the theoretical properties and practical performance of 24 deterministic and probabilistic company fundamentals forecasting models on real company data. We observe that deep learning models provide superior forecasting performance to classical models, in particular when considering uncertainty estimation. To validate the findings, we compare them to human analyst expectations and find that their accuracy is comparable to the automatic forecasts. We further show how these high-quality forecasts can benefit automated stock allocation. We close by presenting possible ways of integrating domain experts to further improve performance and increase reliability.
We study the tendency of AI systems to deceive by constructing a realistic simulation setting of a company AI assistant. The simulated company employees provide tasks for the assistant to complete, these tasks spanning writing assistance, information retrieval and programming. We then introduce situations where the model might be inclined to behave deceptively, while taking care to not instruct or otherwise pressure the model to do so. Across different scenarios, we find that Claude 3 Opus 1) complies with a task of mass-generating comments to influence public perception of the company, later deceiving humans about it having done so, 2) lies to auditors when asked questions, and 3) strategically pretends to be less capable than it is during capability evaluations. Our work demonstrates that even models trained to be helpful, harmless and honest sometimes behave deceptively in realistic scenarios, without notable external pressure to do so.
In recent years, natural language processing (NLP) has become increasingly important in a variety of business applications, including sentiment analysis, text classification, and named entity recognition. In this paper, we propose an approach for company classification using NLP and zero-shot learning. Our method utilizes pre-trained transformer models to extract features from company descriptions, and then applies zero-shot learning to classify companies into relevant categories without the need for specific training data for each category. We evaluate our approach on a dataset obtained through the Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS), which comprises textual descriptions of publicly traded companies. We demonstrate that the approach can streamline the process of company classification, thereby reducing the time and resources required in traditional approaches such as the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). The results show that this method has potential for automation of company classification, making it a promising avenue for future research in this area.
Company profiling is an analytical process to build an indepth understanding of company's fundamental characteristics. It serves as an effective way to gain vital information of the target company and acquire business intelligence. Traditional approaches for company profiling rely heavily on the availability of rich finance information about the company, such as finance reports and SEC filings, which may not be readily available for many private companies. However, the rapid prevalence of online employment services enables a new paradigm - to obtain the variety of company's information from their employees' online ratings and comments. This, in turn, raises the challenge to develop company profiles from an employee's perspective. To this end, in this paper, we propose a method named Company Profiling based Collaborative Topic Regression (CPCTR), for learning the latent structural patterns of companies. By formulating a joint optimization framework, CPCTR has the ability in collaboratively modeling both textual (e.g., reviews) and numerical information (e.g., salaries and ratings). Indeed, with the identified patterns, including the positive/negative opinions and the latent variable
This study is intended to provide in-depth insights into how design thinking and creativity issues are understood and possibly evolve in the course of design discussions in a company context. For that purpose, we use the seminar transcripts of the Design Thinking Research Symposium 12 (DTRS12) dataset "Tech-centred Design Thinking: Perspectives from a Rising Asia," which are primarily concerned with how Korean companies implement design thinking and what role designers currently play. We employed a novel method of information processing based on constructed dynamic semantic networks to investigate the seminar discussions according to company representatives and company size. We compared the quantitative dynamics in two seminars: the first involved managerial representatives of four companies, and the second involved specialized designers and management of a design center of single company. On the basis of dynamic semantic networks, we quantified the changes in four semantic measures -- abstraction, polysemy, information content, and pairwise word similarity -- in chronologically reconstructed individual design-thinking processes. Statistical analyses show that design thinking in th
Company financial risk is ubiquitous and early risk assessment for listed companies can avoid considerable losses. Traditional methods mainly focus on the financial statements of companies and lack the complex relationships among them. However, the financial statements are often biased and lagged, making it difficult to identify risks accurately and timely. To address the challenges, we redefine the problem as \textbf{company financial risk assessment on tribe-style graph} by taking each listed company and its shareholders as a tribe and leveraging financial news to build inter-tribe connections. Such tribe-style graphs present different patterns to distinguish risky companies from normal ones. However, most nodes in the tribe-style graph lack attributes, making it difficult to directly adopt existing graph learning methods (e.g., Graph Neural Networks(GNNs)). In this paper, we propose a novel Hierarchical Graph Neural Network (TH-GNN) for Tribe-style graphs via two levels, with the first level to encode the structure pattern of the tribes with contrastive learning, and the second level to diffuse information based on the inter-tribe relations, achieving effective and efficient ris
Entity Matching is an essential part of all real-world systems that take in structured and unstructured data coming from different sources. Typically no common key is available for connecting records. Massive data cleaning and integration processes require completion before any data analytics, or further processing can be performed. Although record linkage is frequently regarded as a somewhat tedious but necessary step, it reveals valuable insights, supports data visualization, and guides further analytic approaches to the data. Here, we focus on organization entity matching. We introduce CompanyName2Vec, a novel algorithm to solve company entity matching (CEM) using a neural network model to learn company name semantics from a job ad corpus, without relying on any information on the matched company besides its name. Based on a real-world data, we show that CompanyName2Vec outperforms other evaluated methods and solves the CEM challenge with an average success rate of 89.3%.
This paper proposes an original methodology based on Named Entity Recognition (NER) to identify companies involved in downstream space activities, i.e., companies that provide services or products exploiting data and technology from space. Using a rule-based approach, the method leverages a corpus of texts from digitized French press articles to extract company names related to the downstream space segment. This approach allowed the detection of 88 new downstream space companies, enriching the existing database of the sector by 33\%. The paper details the identification process and provides guidelines for future replications, applying the method to other geographic areas, or adapting it to other industries where new entrants are challenging to identify using traditional activity classifications.
Identifying companies with similar profiles is a core task in finance with a wide range of applications in portfolio construction, asset pricing and risk attribution. When a rigorous definition of similarity is lacking, financial analysts usually resort to 'traditional' industry classifications such as Global Industry Classification System (GICS) which assign a unique category to each company at different levels of granularity. Due to their discrete nature, though, GICS classifications do not allow for ranking companies in terms of similarity. In this paper, we explore the ability of pre-trained and finetuned large language models (LLMs) to learn company embeddings based on the business descriptions reported in SEC filings. We show that we can reproduce GICS classifications using the embeddings as features. We also benchmark these embeddings on various machine learning and financial metrics and conclude that the companies that are similar according to the embeddings are also similar in terms of financial performance metrics including return correlation.
We present an analytical study of an insurance company. We model the company's performance on a statistical basis and evaluate the predicted annual income of the company in terms of insurance parameters namely the premium, total number of the insured, average loss claims etc. We restrict ourselves to a single insurance class the so-called automobile insurance. We show the existence a crossover premium p_c below which the company is loss-making. Above p_c, we also give detailed statistical analysis of the company's financial status and obtain the predicted profit along with the corresponding risk as well as ruin probability in terms of premium. Furthermore we obtain the optimal premium p_{opt} which maximizes the company's profit.
Earnings conference calls are significant information events for volatility forecasting, which is essential for financial risk management and asset pricing. Although some recent volatility forecasting models have utilized the textual content of conference calls, the dialogue structures of conference calls and company relationships are almost ignored in extant literature. To bridge this gap, we propose a new model called Temporal Virtual Graph Neural Network (TVGNN) for volatility forecasting by jointly modeling conference call dialogues and company networks. Our model differs from existing models in several important ways. First, we propose to exploit more dialogue structures by encoding position, utterance, speaker role, and Q\&A segments. Second, we propose to encode the market states for volatility forecasting by extending the Gated Recurrent Units (GRU). Third, we propose a new method for constructing temporal company networks in which the messages can only flow from temporally preceding to successive nodes, and extend the Graph Attention Networks (GAT) for modeling company relationships. We collect conference call transcripts of S\&P500 companies from 2008 to 2019, and
Because the asset value of a private company does not observable except in quarterly reports, the structural model has not been developed for a private company. For this reason, this paper attempt to develop the Merton's structural model for the private company by using the dividend discount model (DDM). In this paper, we obtain closed--form formulas of risk--neutral equity and liability values and default probability for the private company. Also, the paper provides ML estimators and the EM algorithm of our model's parameters.
Performing company valuations within the domain of biotechnology, pharmacy and medical technology is a challenging task, especially when considering the unique set of risks biotech start-ups face when entering new markets. Companies specialized in global valuation services, therefore, combine valuation models and past experience with heterogeneous metrics and indicators that provide insights into a company's performance. This paper illustrates how automated knowledge discovery, extraction and data fusion can be used to (i) obtain additional indicators that provide insights into the success of a company's product development efforts, and (ii) support labor-intensive data curation processes. We apply deep web knowledge acquisition methods to identify and harvest data on clinical trials that is hidden behind proprietary search interfaces and integrate the extracted data into the industry partner's company valuation ontology. In addition, focused Web crawls and shallow semantic parsing yield information on the company's key personnel and respective contact data, notifying domain experts of relevant changes that get then incorporated into the industry partner's company data.