Surrogate endpoints are used in place of long-term outcomes in randomized experiments when observing the real outcome for a large enough cohort is prohibitively expensive or impractical. A short-term surrogate is good if the result of an experiment using the surrogate is predictive of the result of a hypothetical study using the real outcome. Much attention has been paid to formalizing this property in causal terms, but most criteria are unidentifiable and cannot be turned into practical algorithms for learning surrogate endpoints from data. To address this, we study plug-in composite surrogates, functions of post-treatment variables that may be substituted directly for the primary outcome in a randomized experiment. We propose two methods for learning plug-in surrogates that maximize effect predictiveness, and characterize the possibility of finding endpoints that yield unbiased effect estimates in representative scenarios. Finally, in both synthetic experiments with known effects and in data from a real-world experiment, we find that our method, based on directly modeling the surrogate effect, returns plug-in endpoints more predictive of the primary effect than established method
We propose ULFS-KDPE, a kernel debiased plug-in estimator based on the universal least favorable submodel, for estimating pathwise differentiable parameters in nonparametric models. The method constructs a data-adaptive debiasing flow in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), producing a plug-in estimator that achieves semiparametric efficiency without requiring explicit derivation or evaluation of efficient influence functions. We place ULFS-KDPE on a rigorous functional-analytic foundation by formulating the universal least favorable update as a nonlinear ordinary differential equation on probability densities. We establish existence, uniqueness, stability, and finite-time convergence of the empirical score along the induced flow. Under standard regularity conditions, the resulting estimator is regular, asymptotically linear, and attains the semiparametric efficiency bound simultaneously for a broad class of pathwise differentiable parameters. The method admits a computationally tractable implementation based on finite-dimensional kernel representations and principled stopping criteria. In finite samples, the combination of solving a rich collection of score equations with RK
We study the sample complexity of the plug-in approach for learning $\varepsilon$-optimal policies in average-reward Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a generative model. The plug-in approach constructs a model estimate then computes an average-reward optimal policy in the estimated model. Despite representing arguably the simplest algorithm for this problem, the plug-in approach has never been theoretically analyzed. Unlike the more well-studied discounted MDP reduction method, the plug-in approach requires no prior problem information or parameter tuning. Our results fill this gap and address the limitations of prior approaches, as we show that the plug-in approach is optimal in several well-studied settings without using prior knowledge. Specifically it achieves the optimal diameter- and mixing-based sample complexities of $\widetilde{O}\left(SA \frac{D}{\varepsilon^2}\right)$ and $\widetilde{O}\left(SA \frac{τ_{\mathrm{unif}}}{\varepsilon^2}\right)$, respectively, without knowledge of the diameter $D$ or uniform mixing time $τ_{\mathrm{unif}}$. We also obtain span-based bounds for the plug-in approach, and complement them with algorithm-specific lower bounds suggesting that
In this work, CausalVAE is introduced as a plug-in structural module for latent world models and is attached to diverse encoder-transition backbones. Across the reported benchmarks, competitive factual prediction is preserved and intervention-aware counterfactual retrieval is improved after the plug-in is added, suggesting stronger robustness under distribution shift and interventions. The largest gains are observed on the Physics benchmark: when averaged over 8 paired baselines, CF-H@1 is improved by +102.5%. In a representative GNN-NLL setting on Physics, CF-H@1 is increased from 11.0 to 41.0 (+272.7%). Through causal analysis, learned structural dependencies are shown to recover meaningful first-order physical interaction trends, supporting the interpretability of the learned latent causal structure.
We present a new plug-in for the ARGoS swarm robotic simulator to implement the Crazyflie drone, including its controllers, sensors, and some expansion decks. We have based our development on the former Spiri drone, upgrading the position controller, adding a new speed controller, LED ring, onboard camera, and battery discharge model. We have compared this new plug-in in terms of accuracy and efficiency with data obtained from real Crazyflie drones. All our experiments showed that the proposed plug-in worked well, presenting high levels of accuracy. We believe that this is an important contribution to robot simulations which will extend ARGoS capabilities through the use of our proposed, open-source plug-in.
In the present paper, we consider the moderate deviation principle for the plug-in estimators of a large class of diversity indices on countable alphabets, where the distribution may change with the sample size. Our results cover some of the most commonly used indices, including Tsallis entropy, Reńyi entropy and Hill diversity number.
In the present paper, we consider the plug-in estimator of Shannon's entropy defined on a finite alphabet which is assumed to dynamically vary as the sample size increases. The asymptotic behaviors for the plug-in estimator, such as, asymptotic normality, Berry-Esseen bound and moderate deviation principle, are established.
This study investigates the effect of bandwidth selection via a plug-in method on the asymptotic structure of the nonparametric kernel density estimator. We generalise the result of Hall and Kang (2001) and find that the plug-in method has no effect on the asymptotic structure of the estimator up to the order of $O\{(nh_0)^{-1/2}+h_0^L\}=O(n^{-L/(2L+1)})$ for a bandwidth $h_0$ and any kernel order $L$ when the kernel order for pilot estimation $L_p$ is high enough. We also provide the valid Edgeworth expansion up to the order of $O\{(nh_0)^{-1}+h_0^{2L}\}$ and find that, as long as the $L_p$ is high enough , the plug-in method has an effect from on the term whose convergence rate is $O\{(nh_0)^{-1/2}h_0+h_0^{L+1}\}=O(n^{-(L+1)/(2L+1)})$. In other words, we derive the exact achievable convergence rate of the deviation between the distribution functions of the estimator with a deterministic bandwidth and with the plug-in bandwidth. In addition, we weaken the conditions on kernel order $L_p$ for pilot estimation by considering the effect of pilot bandwidth associated with the plug-in bandwidth. We also show that the bandwidth selection via the global plug-in method possibly has an eff
Electric vehicle (EV) charge points (CPs) can be used by aggregators to provide frequency response (FR) services. Aggregators must have day-ahead half-hourly forecasts of minimum aggregate vehicle-to-grid (V2G) plug-in to produce meaningful bids for the day-ahead ancillary services market. However, there is a lack of understanding on what features should be considered and how complex the forecasting model should be. This paper explores the dependency of aggregate V2G plug-in on historic plug-in levels, calendar variables, and weather conditions. These investigations are used to develop three day-ahead forecasts of minimum aggregate V2G plug-in during 30-minute window. A neural network that considers previous V2G plug-in values the day before, three days before, and seven days before, in addition to day of the week, month, and hour, is found to be the most accurate.
Objectives: Highly flexible nonparametric estimators have gained popularity in causal inference and epidemiology. Popular examples of such estimators include targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLE) and double machine learning (DML). TMLE is often argued or suggested to be better than DML estimators and several other estimators in small to moderate samples -- even if they share the same large-sample properties -- because TMLE is a plug-in estimator and respects the known bounds on the parameter, while other estimators might fall outside the known bounds and yield absurd estimates. However, this argument is not a rigorously proven result and may fail in certain cases. Methods: In a carefully chosen simulation setting, I compare the performance of several versions of TMLE and DML estimators of the average treatment effect among treated in small to moderate samples. Results: In this simulation setting, DML estimators outperforms some versions of TMLE in small samples. TMLE fluctuations are unstable, and hence empirically checking the magnitude of the TMLE fluctuation might alert cases where TMLE might perform poorly. Conclusions: As a plug-in estimator, TMLE is not guaranteed to
This paper focuses on the computational complexity of computing empirical plug-in estimates for causal effect queries. Given a causal graph and observational data, any identifiable causal query can be estimated from an expression over the observed variables, called the estimand. The estimand can then be evaluated by plugging in probabilities computed empirically from data. In contrast to conventional wisdom, which assumes that high dimensional probabilistic functions will lead to exponential evaluation time of the estimand. We show that computation can be done efficiently, potentially in time linear in the data size, depending on the estimand's hypergraph. In particular, we show that both the treewidth and hypertree width of the estimand's structure bound the evaluation complexity of the plug-in estimands, analogous to their role in the complexity of probabilistic inference in graphical models. Often, the hypertree width provides a more effective bound, since the empirical distributions are sparse.
This paper presents a promising design concept for reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RISs), named plug-in RIS, wherein the RIS is plugged into an appropriate position in the environment, adjusted once according to the location of both base station and blocked region, and operates with fixed beams to enhance the system performance. The plug-in RIS is a novel system design, streamlining RIS-assisted millimeter-wave (mmWave) communication without requiring decoupling two parts of the end-to-end channel, traditional control signal transmission, and online RIS configuration. In plug-in RIS-aided transmission, the transmitter efficiently activates specific regions of the divided large RIS by employing hybrid beamforming techniques, each with predetermined phase adjustments tailored to reflect signals to desired user locations. This user-centric approach enhances connectivity and overall user experience by dynamically illuminating the targeted user based on location. By introducing plug-in RIS's theoretical framework, design principles, and performance evaluation, we demonstrate its potential to revolutionize mmWave communications for the limited channel state information (CSI) scenari
We propose a procedure for estimating the Schrödinger bridge between two probability distributions. Unlike existing approaches, our method does not require iteratively simulating forward and backward diffusions or training neural networks to fit unknown drifts. Instead, we show that the potentials obtained from solving the static entropic optimal transport problem between the source and target samples can be modified to yield a natural plug-in estimator of the time-dependent drift that defines the bridge between two measures. Under minimal assumptions, we show that our proposal, which we call the \emph{Sinkhorn bridge}, provably estimates the Schrödinger bridge with a rate of convergence that depends on the intrinsic dimensionality of the target measure. Our approach combines results from the areas of sampling, and theoretical and statistical entropic optimal transport.
Persistent homology is a tool from Topological Data Analysis (TDA) used to summarize the topology underlying data. It can be conveniently represented through persistence diagrams. Observing a noisy signal, common strategies to infer its persistence diagram involve plug-in estimators, and convergence properties are then derived from sup-norm stability. This dependence on the sup-norm convergence of the preliminary estimator is restrictive, as it essentially imposes to consider regular classes of signals. Departing from these approaches, we design an estimator based on image persistence. In the context of the Gaussian white noise model, and for large classes of piecewise-constant signals, we prove that the proposed estimator is consistent and achieves parametric rates.
Shannon's entropy is one of the building blocks of information theory and an essential aspect of Machine Learning methods (e.g., Random Forests). Yet, it is only finitely defined for distributions with fast decaying tails on a countable alphabet. The unboundedness of Shannon's entropy over the general class of all distributions on an alphabet prevents its potential utility from being fully realized. To fill the void in the foundation of information theory, Zhang (2020) proposed generalized Shannon's entropy, which is finitely defined everywhere. The plug-in estimator, adopted in almost all entropy-based ML method packages, is one of the most popular approaches to estimating Shannon's entropy. The asymptotic distribution for Shannon's entropy's plug-in estimator was well studied in the existing literature. This paper studies the asymptotic properties for the plug-in estimator of generalized Shannon's entropy on countable alphabets. The developed asymptotic properties require no assumptions on the original distribution. The proposed asymptotic properties allow interval estimation and statistical tests with generalized Shannon's entropy.
We present PRETUS -a Plugin-based Real Time UltraSound software platform for live ultrasound image analysis and operator support. The software is lightweight; functionality is brought in via independent plug-ins that can be arranged in sequence. The software allows to capture the real-time stream of ultrasound images from virtually any ultrasound machine, applies computational methods and visualises the results on-the-fly. Plug-ins can run concurrently without blocking each other. They can be implemented in C ++ and Python. A graphical user interface can be implemented for each plug-in, and presented to the user in a compact way. The software is free and open source, and allows for rapid prototyping and testing of real-time ultrasound imaging methods in a manufacturer-agnostic fashion. The software is provided with input, output and processing plug-ins, as well as with tutorials to illustrate how to develop new plug-ins for PRETUS.
Derivatives are a key nonparametric functional in wide-ranging applications where the rate of change of an unknown function is of interest. In the Bayesian paradigm, Gaussian processes (GPs) are routinely used as a flexible prior for unknown functions, and are arguably one of the most popular tools in many areas. However, little is known about the optimal modeling strategy and theoretical properties when using GPs for derivatives. In this article, we study a plug-in strategy by differentiating the posterior distribution with GP priors for derivatives of any order. This practically appealing plug-in GP method has been previously perceived as suboptimal and degraded, but this is not necessarily the case. We provide posterior contraction rates for plug-in GPs and establish that they achieve optimal rates simultaneously for all derivative orders. We show that the posterior measure of the regression function and its derivatives, with the same choice of hyperparameter that does not depend on the order of derivatives, converges at the minimax optimal rate up to a logarithmic factor for functions in certain classes. We analyze a data-driven hyperparameter tuning method based on empirical B
In this paper we improve the zero-shot generalization ability of language models via Mixture-Of-Memory Augmentation (MoMA), a mechanism that retrieves augmentation documents from multiple information corpora ("external memories"), with the option to "plug in" new memory at inference time. We develop a joint learning mechanism that trains the augmentation component with latent labels derived from the end retrieval task, paired with hard negatives from the memory mixture. We instantiate the model in a zero-shot dense retrieval setting by augmenting a strong T5-based retriever with MoMA. Our model, MoMA, obtains strong zero-shot retrieval accuracy on the eighteen tasks included in the standard BEIR benchmark. It outperforms systems that seek generalization from increased model parameters and computation steps. Our analysis further illustrates the necessity of augmenting with mixture-of-memory for robust generalization, the benefits of augmentation learning, and how MoMA utilizes the plug-in memory at inference time without changing its parameters. We plan to open source our code.
The Theory plug-in enables modellers to extend the mathematical modelling notation for Event-B, with accompanying support for reasoning about the extended language. Previous version of the Theory plug-in has been implemented based on Rodin 2.x. This presentation outline the main improvements to the The- ory plug-in, to be compatible with Rodin 3.x, in terms of both reliability and us- ability. We will also present the changes that were needed in the Rodin core to accommodate the Theory plug-in. Finally, we identify future enhancements and research directions for the Theory plug-in.
The knowledge tracing (KT) problem is an extremely important topic in personalized education, which aims to predict whether students can correctly answer the next question based on their past question-answer records. Prior work on this task mainly focused on learning the sequence of behaviors based on the IDs or textual information. However, these studies usually fail to capture students' sufficient behavioral patterns without reasoning with rich world knowledge about questions. In this paper, we propose a large language models (LLMs)-based framework for KT, named \texttt{\textbf{LLM-KT}}, to integrate the strengths of LLMs and traditional sequence interaction models. For task-level alignment, we design Plug-and-Play instruction to align LLMs with KT, leveraging LLMs' rich knowledge and powerful reasoning capacity. For modality-level alignment, we design the plug-in context and sequence to integrate multiple modalities learned by traditional methods. To capture the long context of history records, we present a plug-in context to flexibly insert the compressed context embedding into LLMs using question-specific and concept-specific tokens. Furthermore, we introduce a plug-in sequenc