The synthetic control method (SCM) estimates causal effects in panel data with a single-treated unit by constructing a counterfactual outcome as a weighted combination of untreated control units that matches the pre-treatment trajectory. In this paper, we introduce the targeted synthetic control (TSC) method, a new two-stage estimator that directly estimates the counterfactual outcome. Specifically, our TSC method (1) yields a targeted debiasing estimator, in the sense that the targeted updating refines the initial weights to produce more stable weights; and (2) ensures that the final counterfactual estimation is a convex combination of observed control outcomes to enable direct interpretation of the synthetic control weights. TSC is flexible and can be instantiated with arbitrary machine learning models. Methodologically, TSC starts from an initial set of synthetic-control weights via a one-dimensional targeted update through the weight-tilting submodel, which calibrates the weights to reduce bias of weights estimation arising from pre-treatment fit. Furthermore, TSC avoids key shortcomings of existing methods (e.g., the augmented SCM), which can produce unbounded counterfactual e
Recently, pre-trained encoders have gained widespread use due to their strong capability in representation extraction. However, they are vulnerable to downstream-agnostic attacks (DAAs). Existing DAA methods operate under a permissive threat model, where an attack is successful if the generated downstream-agnostic adversarial examples (DAEs) change the original prediction, without requiring a specific target. In this paper, we propose a Targeted DAA (TDAA) method under a stricter threat model requiring the attack to be both targeted and downstream-agnostic. Since the downstream task is unknown and encoders do not directly produce predictions, achieving a targeted attack is particularly challenging. To address this, we introduce a novel component termed the 'threat image', pre-selected by the attacker as the target. Specifically, a generator is designed to produce example-specific adversarial perturbations that compel the victim encoder to output identical features for both the DAEs and the threat image. Unlike previous DAA methods that generate a single shared perturbation for all samples, which often fails due to image diversity, our method adopts an example-specific paradigm. Thi
Targeted bit-flip attacks (BFAs) exploit hardware faults to manipulate model parameters, posing a significant security threat. While prior work targets single-step inference models (e.g., image classifiers), LLM-based agents with multi-stage pipelines and external tools present new attack surfaces, which remain unexplored. This work introduces Flip-Agent, the first targeted BFA framework for LLM-based agents, manipulating both final outputs and tool invocations. Our experiments show that Flip-Agent significantly outperforms existing targeted BFAs on real-world agent tasks, revealing a critical vulnerability in LLM-based agent systems.
Adversarial examples' (AE) transferability refers to the phenomenon that AEs crafted with one surrogate model can also fool other models. Notwithstanding remarkable progress in untargeted transferability, its targeted counterpart remains challenging. This paper proposes an everywhere scheme to boost targeted transferability. Our idea is to attack a victim image both globally and locally. We aim to optimize 'an army of targets' in every local image region instead of the previous works that optimize a high-confidence target in the image. Specifically, we split a victim image into non-overlap blocks and jointly mount a targeted attack on each block. Such a strategy mitigates transfer failures caused by attention inconsistency between surrogate and victim models and thus results in stronger transferability. Our approach is method-agnostic, which means it can be easily combined with existing transferable attacks for even higher transferability. Extensive experiments on ImageNet demonstrate that the proposed approach universally improves the state-of-the-art targeted attacks by a clear margin, e.g., the transferability of the widely adopted Logit attack can be improved by 28.8%-300%.We a
Recent developments in text-to-image models, particularly Stable Diffusion, have marked significant achievements in various applications. With these advancements, there are growing safety concerns about the vulnerability of the model that malicious entities exploit to generate targeted harmful images. However, the existing methods in the vulnerability of the model mainly evaluate the alignment between the prompt and generated images, but fall short in revealing the vulnerability associated with targeted image generation. In this study, we formulate the problem of targeted adversarial attack on Stable Diffusion and propose a framework to generate adversarial prompts. Specifically, we design a gradient-based embedding optimization method to craft reliable adversarial prompts that guide stable diffusion to generate specific images. Furthermore, after obtaining successful adversarial prompts, we reveal the mechanisms that cause the vulnerability of the model. Extensive experiments on two targeted attack tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in targeted attacks. The code can be obtained in https://github.com/datar001/Revealing-Vulnerabilities-in-Stable-Diffusion-via-Targeted
Negative-Bias Temperature Instability is a dominant aging mechanism in nanoscale CMOS circuits such as microprocessors. With this aging mechanism, the rate of device aging is dependent not only on overall operating conditions, such as heat, but also on user controllable inputs to the transistors. This dependence on input implies a possible timing fault-injection attack wherein a targeted path of logic is intentionally degraded through the purposeful, software-driven actions of an attacker, rendering a targeted bit effectively stuck. In this work, we describe such an attack mechanism, which we dub a "$\textbf{Targeted Wearout Attack}$", wherein an attacker with sufficient knowledge of the processor core, executing a carefully crafted software program with only user privilege, is able to degrade a functional unit within the processor with the aim of eliciting a particular desired incorrect calculation in a victim application. Here we give a general methodology for the attack. We then demonstrate a case study where a targeted path within the fused multiply-add pipeline in a RISC-V CPU sees a $>7x$ increase in wear over time than would be experienced under typical workloads. We show
How does targeted advertising influence electoral outcomes? This paper presents a one-dimensional spatial model of voting in which a privately informed challenger persuades voters to support him over the status quo. I show that targeted advertising enables the challenger to persuade voters with opposing preferences and swing elections decided by such voters; under simple majority, the challenger can defeat the status quo even when it is located at the median voter's bliss point. Ex-ante commitment power is unnecessary -- the challenger succeeds by strategically revealing different pieces of verifiable information to different voters. Publicizing all political ads would mitigate the negative effects of targeted advertising and help voters collectively make the right choice.
Local projection (LP) and structural vector autoregression (SVAR) are commonly employed to estimate dynamic causal effects of macroeconomic policies at multiple horizons. With enough lags as controls, LP estimators have little bias but their variance can increase with the horizon due to accumulating additional shocks. Because they typically employ fewer lags or suffer from local misspecification, SVAR estimators typically incur higher bias, but their variance decreases with the horizon due to exponentiation. We propose to target the LP estimators towards their SVAR counterparts - constructed with fewer lags than LP at each horizon - to reduce their variance at the cost of incurring some bias. The resulting targeted LP estimator is a linear combination of the LP and SVAR estimators. We propose choosing this linear combination optimally to minimize the mean-squared error of the new estimator. Our simulations show that, under a locally misspecified SVAR model, targeting substantially reduces the LP variance at longer horizons while maintaining near-nominal coverage in small samples when a double bootstrap is employed.
In this paper, we investigate discrete topological complexity $TC(K)$ introduced for situations where the configuration space possesses a simplicial structure. %Simplicial complexes are well-known and commonly used in programming for robotic motion. Let $K$ be a complex and let $L$ be a subcomplex considered as the target of the motion. We introduce targeted simplicial complexity $TC(K,L)$, which yields smaller values than the discrete version $TC(K)$. We then demonstrate that targeted simplicial complexity is strongly homotopy invariant and it varies between simplicial LS-categories of $K$ and $K \prod K$. Utilizing this information, we calculate targeted simplicial complexity for scenarios such as strongly collapsible complexes. Finally, we compare targeted simplicial complexity with relative topological complexity and we show that $TC(|K|, |L|) \le TC (K,L)$ where $|\cdot|$ denotes the geometric realization functor. Although relative topological complexity is generally lower than targeted simplicial complexity, they are equal in certain cases, such as arbitrary wedges of triangulated circles.
Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are widely acknowledged to be susceptible to adversarial examples, wherein imperceptible perturbations are added to clean examples through diverse input transformation attacks. However, these methods originally designed for non-targeted attacks exhibit low success rates in targeted attacks. Recent targeted adversarial attacks mainly pay attention to gradient optimization, attempting to find the suitable perturbation direction. However, few of them are dedicated to input transformation.In this work, we observe a positive correlation between the logit/probability of the target class and diverse input transformation methods in targeted attacks. To this end, we propose a novel targeted adversarial attack called AutoAugment Input Transformation (AAIT). Instead of relying on hand-made strategies, AAIT searches for the optimal transformation policy from a transformation space comprising various operations. Then, AAIT crafts adversarial examples using the found optimal transformation policy to boost the adversarial transferability in targeted attacks. Extensive experiments conducted on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet-Compatible datasets demonstrate that the proposed AAIT
Targeted adversarial attacks are widely used to evaluate the robustness of neural machine translation systems. Unfortunately, this paper first identifies a critical issue in the existing settings of NMT targeted adversarial attacks, where their attacking results are largely overestimated. To this end, this paper presents a new setting for NMT targeted adversarial attacks that could lead to reliable attacking results. Under the new setting, it then proposes a Targeted Word Gradient adversarial Attack (TWGA) method to craft adversarial examples. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed setting could provide faithful attacking results for targeted adversarial attacks on NMT systems, and the proposed TWGA method can effectively attack such victim NMT systems. In-depth analyses on a large-scale dataset further illustrate some valuable findings. 1 Our code and data are available at https://github.com/wujunjie1998/TWGA.
Clustering traditionally aims to reveal a natural grouping structure within unlabeled data. However, this structure may not always align with users' preferences. In this paper, we propose a personalized clustering method that explicitly performs targeted representation learning by interacting with users via modicum task information (e.g., $\textit{must-link}$ or $\textit{cannot-link}$ pairs) to guide the clustering direction. We query users with the most informative pairs, i.e., those pairs most hard to cluster and those most easy to miscluster, to facilitate the representation learning in terms of the clustering preference. Moreover, by exploiting attention mechanism, the targeted representation is learned and augmented. By leveraging the targeted representation and constrained contrastive loss as well, personalized clustering is obtained. Theoretically, we verify that the risk of personalized clustering is tightly bounded, guaranteeing that active queries to users do mitigate the clustering risk. Experimentally, extensive results show that our method performs well across different clustering tasks and datasets, even when only a limited number of queries are available.
The transferability of adversarial perturbations provides an effective shortcut for black-box attacks. Targeted perturbations have greater practicality but are more difficult to transfer between models. In this paper, we experimentally and theoretically demonstrated that neural networks trained on the same dataset have more consistent performance in High-Sample-Density-Regions (HSDR) of each class instead of low sample density regions. Therefore, in the target setting, adding perturbations towards HSDR of the target class is more effective in improving transferability. However, density estimation is challenging in high-dimensional scenarios. Further theoretical and experimental verification demonstrates that easy samples with low loss are more likely to be located in HSDR. Perturbations towards such easy samples in the target class can avoid density estimation for HSDR location. Based on the above facts, we verified that adding perturbations to easy samples in the target class improves targeted adversarial transferability of existing attack methods. A generative targeted attack strategy named Easy Sample Matching Attack (ESMA) is proposed, which has a higher success rate for target
Diffusion models build a new milestone for image generation yet raising public concerns, for they can be fine-tuned on unauthorized images for customization. Protection based on adversarial attacks rises to encounter this unauthorized diffusion customization, by adding protective watermarks to images and poisoning diffusion models. However, current protection, leveraging untargeted attacks, does not appear to be effective enough. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective improvement for the protection against unauthorized diffusion customization by introducing targeted attacks. We show that by carefully selecting the target, targeted attacks significantly outperform untargeted attacks in poisoning diffusion models and degrading the customization image quality. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of our method on two mainstream customization methods of diffusion models, compared to existing protections. To explain the surprising success of targeted attacks, we delve into the mechanism of attack-based protections and propose a hypothesis based on our observation, which enhances the comprehension of attack-based protections. To the best of our knowledge, we are the f
The era characterized by an exponential increase in data has led to the widespread adoption of data intelligence as a crucial task. Within the field of data mining, frequent episode mining has emerged as an effective tool for extracting valuable and essential information from event sequences. Various algorithms have been developed to discover frequent episodes and subsequently derive episode rules using the frequency function and anti-monotonicity principles. However, currently, there is a lack of algorithms specifically designed for mining episode rules that encompass user-specified query episodes. To address this challenge and enable the mining of target episode rules, we introduce the definition of targeted precise-positioning episode rules and formulate the problem of targeted mining precise-positioning episode rules. Most importantly, we develop an algorithm called Targeted Mining Precision Episode Rules (TaMIPER) to address the problem and optimize it using four proposed strategies, leading to significant reductions in both time and space resource requirements. As a result, TaMIPER offers high accuracy and efficiency in mining episode rules of user interest and holds promisin
In this technical note we present a targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) for a previously studied target parameter that aims to transport an average treatment effect (ATE) on a clinical outcome in a source population to what the ATE would have been in another target population. It is assumed that one only observes baseline covariates in the target population, while we assume that one can learn the conditional treatment effect on the outcome of interest in the source population. We also allow that one might observe only a subset of the covariates in the target population while all covariates are measured in the source population. We consider the case that the outcome is a clinical outcome at some future time point that is subject to missingness, or that our outcome of interest is a time to event that is subject to right-censoring. We derive the canonical gradients and present the corresponding TMLEs for these two cases.
Hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) improves the efficiency of long-horizon reinforcement-learning tasks with sparse rewards by decomposing the task into a hierarchy of subgoals. The main challenge of HRL is efficient discovery of the hierarchical structure among subgoals and utilizing this structure to achieve the final goal. We address this challenge by modeling the subgoal structure as a causal graph and propose a causal discovery algorithm to learn it. Additionally, rather than intervening on the subgoals at random during exploration, we harness the discovered causal model to prioritize subgoal interventions based on their importance in attaining the final goal. These targeted interventions result in a significantly more efficient policy in terms of the training cost. Unlike previous work on causal HRL, which lacked theoretical analysis, we provide a formal analysis of the problem. Specifically, for tree structures and, for a variant of Erdős-Rényi random graphs, our approach results in remarkable improvements. Our experimental results on HRL tasks also illustrate that our proposed framework outperforms existing work in terms of training cost.
In today's digital world, cybercrime is responsible for significant damage to organizations, including financial losses, operational disruptions, or intellectual property theft. Cyberattacks often start with an email, the major means of corporate communication. Some rare, severely damaging email threats - known as spear phishing or Business Email Compromise - have emerged. However, the literature disagrees on their definition, impeding security vendors and researchers from mitigating targeted attacks. Therefore, we introduce targeted attacks. We describe targeted-attack-detection techniques as well as social-engineering methods used by fraudsters. Additionally, we present text-based attacks - with textual content as malicious payload - and compare non-targeted and targeted variants.
We develop Probabilistic Targeted Factor Analysis (PTFA), a likelihood-based framework for constructing latent factors that are explicitly targeted to variables of economic interest. PTFA provides a probabilistic foundation for Partial Least Squares, allowing supervised factor extraction under uncertainty. The model is estimated via a fast expectation maximization algorithm and naturally accommodates missing data, mixed-frequency observations, stochastic volatility, and factor dynamics. Simulation evidence shows that PTFA improves recovery of economically relevant latent factors relative to standard PLS, particularly in noisy environments. Applications to financial conditions indices, macroeconomic forecasting, and equity premium prediction illustrate the measurement and forecasting gains delivered by targeted probabilistic factor extraction.
It is well known that deep learning models are vulnerable to adversarial examples crafted by maliciously adding perturbations to original inputs. There are two types of attacks: targeted attack and non-targeted attack, and most researchers often pay more attention to the targeted adversarial examples. However, targeted attack has a low success rate, especially when aiming at a robust model or under a black-box attack protocol. In this case, non-targeted attack is the last chance to disable AI systems. Thus, in this paper, we propose a new attack mechanism which performs the non-targeted attack when the targeted attack fails. Besides, we aim to generate a single adversarial sample for different deployed models of the same task, e.g. image classification models. Hence, for this practical application, we focus on attacking ensemble models by dividing them into two groups: easy-to-attack and robust models. We alternately attack these two groups of models in the non-targeted or targeted manner. We name it a bagging and stacking ensemble (BAST) attack. The BAST attack can generate an adversarial sample that fails multiple models simultaneously. Some of the models classify the adversarial