搜索结果：Surprising

Consider the following story: A teacher announces to her students a test for the following week, such that the test will be ``surprising''. The students use this as the basis for a ``logical derivation'' and reach a contradiction, which they (falsely) interpret as saying that there cannot be a test. The teacher gives a test e.g. on Wednesday, ``surprising'' the students. Its curious turns give the story the flavor of a paradox. Alternative names are the {\it unexpected hanging paradox\/} and the {\it prediction paradox}. Discussions and analyses of the story in the philosophical and mathematical literature are abundant, spanning 80 years until today. Apparently, none of the known explanations has been generally accepted as conclusive. We offer a fresh view, in propositional logic. ``Surprise'' is captured as unprovability of a certain formula from some axiom system. ``Knowledge'' corresponds to axiom systems and can be gained by mathematical proofs. The notorious property of self-reference in the announcement is cleanly accommodated. All errors made by the students are identified. A general analysis shows that the students cannot learn anything from the announcement. This is the fi

Understanding how humans perceive visual complexity is a key area of study in visual cognition. Previous approaches to modeling visual complexity assessments have often resulted in intricate, difficult-to-interpret algorithms that employ numerous features or sophisticated deep learning architectures. While these complex models achieve high performance on specific datasets, they often sacrifice interpretability, making it challenging to understand the factors driving human perception of complexity. Recently (Shen, et al. 2024) proposed an interpretable segmentation-based model that accurately predicted complexity across various datasets, supporting the idea that complexity can be explained simply. In this work, we investigate the failure of their model to capture structural, color and surprisal contributions to complexity. To this end, we propose Multi-Scale Sobel Gradient (MSG) which measures spatial intensity variations, Multi-Scale Unique Color (MUC) which quantifies colorfulness across multiple scales, and surprise scores generated using a Large Language Model. We test our features on existing benchmarks and a novel dataset (Surprising Visual Genome) containing surprising images

Anomaly detection methods are widely used but often rely on ad hoc rules or strong assumptions, and they often focus on tail events, missing ``inlier'' anomalies that occur in low-density gaps between modes. We propose a unified framework that defines an anomaly as an observation with unusually low probability under a (possibly misspecified) model. For each observation we compute its surprisal (the negative log generalized density) and define an anomaly score as the probability of a surprisal at least as large as that observed. This reduces anomaly detection for complex univariate or multivariate data to estimating the upper tail of a univariate surprisal distribution. We develop two model-robust estimators of these tail probabilities: an empirical estimator based on the observed surprisal distribution and an extreme-value estimator that fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution above a high threshold. For the empirical method we give conditions under which tail ordering is preserved and derive finite-sample confidence guarantees via the Dvoretzky--Kiefer--Wolfowitz inequality. For the GPD method we establish broad tail conditions ensuring classical extreme-value behavior. Simulations

Most self-supervised image clustering models, actually almost all deep learning approaches, are based on gradient descent: In order to calculate the loss, every optimization step requires a clearly defined target, whether a contrastive split, a masked patch or entity, an EMA-teacher output, a pseudo-label, or a differentiable information-theoretic functional. We propose a self-supervised framework that drops this requirement for image clustering. Without any prior knowledge, we have to assume that each pixel is i.i.d. according to the Principle of Maximum Entropy. Taking this as our null hypothesis H0, we define a "surprise score" that measures how unlikely the model's output representation would be under H0. Maximizing the surprise score forces the deep learning model to reject H0 - equivalently, to discover non-random feature from data. Also, here is our fundamental assumption: a surprise score cannot, in general, be reduced to a per-step loss. Hence, we propose the "converge-to-surprise" scheme to optimize our model: an evolution-strategy (ES) outer loop, which directly maximizes the surprise score without needing its gradient, paired with a periodic gradient-descent inner loop,

Scientific breakthroughs typically emerge through the surprising violation of established research ideas, yet quantifying surprise has remained elusive because it requires a coherent model of all contemporary scientific worldviews. Deep neural networks like large language models (LLMs) are arbitrary function approximators tuned to consistently expect the expressions and ideas on which they were trained and those semantically nearby. This suggests that as LLMs improve at generating plausible text, so the perplexity or improbability a text sequence would be generated by them should come to better predict scientific surprise and disruptive importance. Analyzing over 2 million papers across multiple disciplines published immediately following the training of 5 prominent open LLMs, here we show that higher perplexity scores systematically predict papers that receive more variable review ratings, longer editorial delays, and greater reviewer uncertainty. The most perplexing papers exhibit bimodal outcomes: disproportionately represented among the most celebrated scientific achievements and also the most discounted. High-perplexity papers tend to be published in journals with more variabl

Real-world videos often show routine activities punctuated by memorable, surprising events. However, most Video-LLMs process videos by sampling frames uniformly, likely missing critical moments that define a video's narrative. We introduce SPIKE, an inference-time framework that quantifies Bayesian Surprise as the belief update triggered by new visual evidence in the video stream, identifying moments where new visual evidence conflicts with prior beliefs. SPIKE effectively localizes surprise in videos, strongly correlated with humans on positive (FunQA) and negative (Oops!) surprise benchmarks. Since the beliefs of zero-shot Video-LLMs are often suboptimal, we develop SPIKE-RL, which leverages GRPO to optimize belief hypotheses based on a reward signal from the video caption. SPIKE and SPIKE-RL guide query-agnostic surprise-weighted frame sampling, which allocates more frames to interesting moments in the video. With this strategy, we achieve consistent performance gains on five downstream benchmarks over uniform sampling. By enabling Video-LLMs to track beliefs and register surprise, our work paves the way for more robust models that can revise their understanding in response to n

Language-model (LM) surprisal is widely used as a proxy for contextual predictability and has been reported to correlate with metaphor novelty judgments. However, surprisal is tightly intertwined with lexical frequency. We explore this interaction on metaphor novelty ratings using two different word frequency measures. We analyse surprisal estimates from eight Pythia model sizes and 154 training checkpoints. Across settings, word frequency is a stronger predictor of metaphor novelty than surprisal. Across training stages, the surprisal--novelty association peaks at an early stage and then falls again, mirroring a similarly timed increase in the surprisal--frequency association. These results suggest that the often-reported optimal LM surprisal settings may incorrectly associate contextual predictability with metaphor novelty and processing difficulty, whereas lexical frequency may be the major underlying factor.

A community of researchers appears to think that a machine can be surprised and have introduced various surprise measures, principally the Shannon Surprise and the Bayesian Surprise. The questions of what constitutes a surprise and how to react to one still elicit debates. In this work, we introduce Mutual Information Surprise (MIS), a new framework that redefines surprise not as anomaly measure, but as a signal of epistemic growth. Furthermore, we develop a statistical test sequence that could trigger a surprise reaction and propose a MIS-based reaction policy that dynamically governs system behavior through sampling adjustment and process forking. Empirical evaluations -- on both synthetic domains and a dynamic pollution map estimation task -- show that a system governed by the MIS-based reaction policy significantly outperforms those under classical surprise-based approaches in stability, responsiveness, and predictive accuracy. The important implication of our new proposal is that MIS quantifies the impact of new observations on mutual information, shifts surprise from reactive to reflective, enables reflection on learning progression, and thus offers a path toward self-aware a

Predicting corporate earnings surprises is a profitable yet challenging task, as accurate forecasts can inform significant investment decisions. However, progress in this domain has been constrained by a reliance on expensive, proprietary, and text-only data, limiting the development of advanced models. To address this gap, we introduce \textbf{FinCall-Surprise} (Financial Conference Call for Earning Surprise Prediction), the first large-scale, open-source, and multi-modal dataset for earnings surprise prediction. Comprising 2,688 unique corporate conference calls from 2019 to 2021, our dataset features word-to-word conference call textual transcripts, full audio recordings, and corresponding presentation slides. We establish a comprehensive benchmark by evaluating 26 state-of-the-art unimodal and multi-modal LLMs. Our findings reveal that (1) while many models achieve high accuracy, this performance is often an illusion caused by significant class imbalance in the real-world data. (2) Some specialized financial models demonstrate unexpected weaknesses in instruction-following and language generation. (3) Although incorporating audio and visual modalities provides some performance

A key criterion for evaluating sports competitions is their attractiveness to consumers. In this paper, we propose using match-level suspense and surprise, which capture the entertainment utility generated by competitive balance and outcome uncertainty for sports spectators, to assess attractiveness. Through simulations, we derive a benchmark range for suspense and surprise based on an otherwise balanced match with home advantage, before analyzing more than 25,000 matches from Europe's top five football leagues played between 2010/11 and 2023/24. Our findings reveal that mean match suspense is often lower than the benchmark range, particularly for top teams, while mean match surprise most often aligns with the benchmark. Moreover, we identify nuanced trends over time and highlight notable differences across leagues and clubs. These insights enhance our understanding of how the attractiveness of matches arises from competitive balance and carry important policy implications.

Surprisal Theory is often characterized as a computational-level explanation per (Marr, 1982). We argue in this work that, even though a computational level narrative has been used to support "representation-agnostic research" within computational psycholinguistics, the movement toward black box systems embodied by large language models (LLMs) does not exempt modelers using the surprisal metric from the representational decisions required by computational-level characterizations. In fact, we argue that the uncritical use of LLM-surprisal obfuscates the representational and algorithmic-level commitments of different models. In three analyses, we show that the choice of algorithm and model architecture play significant roles in the computation of language model probabilities. We advise that researchers who wish to test Surprisal Theory re-evaluate the practice of treating large language model probabilities as interchangeable

Surprisal theory links human processing effort to the predictability of an upcoming linguistic unit, but empirical work often leaves the notion of a unit underspecified. In practice, experimental stimuli are segmented into linguistically motivated units (e.g., words), while pretrained language models assign probability mass to a fixed token alphabet that typically does not align with those units. As a result, surprisal-based predictors depend implicitly on ad hoc procedures that conflate two distinct modeling choices: the definition of the unit of analysis and the choice of regions of interest over which predictions are evaluated. In this paper, we disentangle these choices and give a unified framework for reasoning about surprisal over arbitrary unit inventories. We argue that surprisal-based analyses should make these choices explicit and treat tokenization as an implementation detail rather than a scientific primitive.

In modeling musical surprisal expectancy with computational methods, it has been proposed to use the information content (IC) of one-step predictions from an autoregressive model as a proxy for surprisal in symbolic music. With an appropriately chosen model, the IC of musical events has been shown to correlate with human perception of surprise and complexity aspects, including tonal and rhythmic complexity. This work investigates whether an analogous methodology can be applied to music audio. We train an autoregressive Transformer model to predict compressed latent audio representations of a pretrained autoencoder network. We verify learning effects by estimating the decrease in IC with repetitions. We investigate the mean IC of musical segment types (e.g., A or B) and find that segment types appearing later in a piece have a higher IC than earlier ones on average. We investigate the IC's relation to audio and musical features and find it correlated with timbral variations and loudness and, to a lesser extent, dissonance, rhythmic complexity, and onset density related to audio and musical features. Finally, we investigate if the IC can predict EEG responses to songs and thus model