This study utilizes mathematical models to assess progress toward achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets aimed at managing and eradicating HIV/AIDS. It contrasts stochastic and deterministic models, focusing on their utility in optimizing public health strategies. Stochastic models account for real-world unpredictability, offering more realistic insights compared to deterministic approaches. The 95-95-95 targets aim for 95\% of people living with HIV to know their status, 95\% of those diagnosed to receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 95\% of those on ART to achieve viral suppression. These benchmarks are critical for reducing transmission and improving health outcomes. This analysis establishes the basic reproduction number ($R_0$) to guide interventions and examines the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria, providing a foundation for applying optimal control strategies to minimize HIV prevalence effectively and cost-efficiently. Moreover, the data for this study was sourced from the official UNAIDS website, focusing on North America. An innovative feature of this study is the application of the Stochastic method, which enhances model accuracy and oper
We present and discuss broad band CCD $UBV(I)_C$ photometry and low resolution spectroscopy for stars in the region of the open cluster NGC 6996, located in the North America Nebula. The new data allow us to tightly constrain the basic properties of this object. We revise the cluster size, which in the past has been significantly underestimated. The width of the Main Sequence is mainly interpreted in terms of differential reddening, and indeed the stars' color excess $E_{B-V}$ ranges from 0.43 to 0.65, implying the presence of a significant and evenly distributed dust component. We cross-correlate our optical photometry with near infrared from 2MASS, and by means of spectral classification we are able to build up extinction curves for an handful of bright members. We find that the reddening slope and the total to selective absorption ratio $R_V$ toward NGC 6996 are anomalous. Moreover the reddening corrected colors and magnitudes allow us to derive estimates for the cluster distance and age, which turn out to be $760 \pm 70 pc$ ($V_{0}-M_{V} = 9.4 \pm 0.2$) and $\sim 350$ Myr, respectively. Basing on our results, we suggest that NGC 6996 is located in front of the North America Neb
In the area covering the complex of the North America and Pelican nebulae we identified 13 faint stars with J-H and H-Ks color indices which simulate heavily reddened O-type stars. One of these stars is CP05-4 classified as O5 V by Comeron and Pasquali (2005). Combining magnitudes of these stars in the passbands I, J, H, Ks and [8.3] we were able to suspect that two of them are carbon stars and five are late M-type AGB stars. Interstellar extinction in the direction of these stars was estimated from the background red clump giants in the J-H vs. H-Ks diagram and from star counts in the Ks passband. Four or five stars are found to have a considerable probability of being O-type stars, contributing to the ionization of North America and Pelican. If they really are O-type stars, their interstellar extinction A(V) should be from 16 to 35 mag. Two of them seem to be responsible for bright E and J radio rims discovered by Matthews and Goss (1980).
Elucidating the statistical properties of extreme meteo-climatic events and capturing the physical processes responsible for their occurrence are key steps for improving our understanding of climate variability and climate change and for better evaluating the associated hazards. It has recently become apparent that large deviation theory is very useful for investigating persistent extreme events, and specifically, for flexibly estimating long return periods and for introducing a notion of dynamical typicality. Using a methodological framework based on large deviation theory and taking advantage of long simulations by a state-of-the-art Earth System Model, we investigate the 2021 North America Heatwave. Indeed, our analysis shows that the 2021 event can be seen as an unlikely but possible manifestation of climate variability, whilst its probability of occurrence is greatly amplified by the ongoing climate change. We also clarify the properties of spatial coherence of the 2021 heatwave and elucidate the role played by the Rocky Mountains in modulating hot, dry, and persistent extreme events in the Western Pacific region of North America.
The prevailing conceptual model for the production of severe local storm (SLS) environments over North America asserts that upstream elevated terrain and the Gulf of Mexico are both essential to their formation. This work tests this hypothesis using two prescribed-ocean climate model experiments with North American topography removed or the Gulf of Mexico converted to land and analyzes how SLS environments and associated synoptic-scale drivers (southerly Great Plains low-level jets, drylines, elevated mixed layers, and extratropical cyclones) change relative to a control historical run. Overall, SLS environments depend strongly on upstream elevated terrain but weakly on the Gulf of Mexico. Removing elevated terrain substantially reduces SLS environments especially over the continental interior due to broad reductions in both thermodynamic and kinematic parameters, leaving a more zonally-uniform residual distribution that is maximized near the Gulf coast and decays toward the continental interior. This response is associated with a strong reduction in synoptic-scale drivers and a cooler and drier mean-state atmosphere. Replacing the Gulf of Mexico with land modestly reduces SLS envi
Objective: Reproducibility is a core tenet of scientific research. A reproducible study is one where the results can be recreated by different investigators in different circumstances using the same methodology and materials. Unfortunately, reproducibility is not a standard to which the majority of research is currently adherent. Methods: We objectively evaluated 300 trials in the field of Obstetrics and Gynecology for fourteen indicators of reproducibility. These indicators include availability of data, analysis scripts, pre-registration information, study protocols and whether or not the study was available via Open Access. We also assessed the trials for financial conflict of interest statements and source of funding. Results: Of the 300 trials in our sample, 208 contained empirical data that could be assessed for reproducibility. None of the trials in our sample provided a link to their protocols or provided a statement on availability of materials. None were replication studies. Just 10.58% provided a statement regarding their data availability, while only 5.82% provided a statement on preregistration. 25.85% failed to report the presence or absence of conflicts of interest an
The development of a kilometer-scale E3SM Land Model (km-scale ELM) is an integral part of the E3SM project, which seeks to advance energy-related Earth system science research with state-of-the-art modeling and simulation capabilities on exascale computing systems. Through the utilization of high-fidelity data products, such as atmospheric forcing and soil properties, the km-scale ELM plays a critical role in accurately modeling geographical characteristics and extreme weather occurrences. The model is vital for enhancing our comprehension and prediction of climate patterns, as well as their effects on ecosystems and human activities. This study showcases the first set of full-capability, km-scale ELM simulations over various computational domains, including simulations encompassing 21.6 million land gridcells, reflecting approximately 21.5 million square kilometers of North America at a 1 km x 1 km resolution. We present the largest km-scale ELM simulation using up to 100,800 CPU cores across 2,400 nodes. This continental-scale simulation is 300 times larger than any previous studies, and the computational resources used are about 400 times larger than those used in prior efforts
We present a spectroscopic survey of over 3400 potential members in the North America and Pelican nebulae (NAP) using several low-resolution ($R\approx$ 1300-2000) spectrographs: Palomar/Norris, WIYN/HYDRA, Keck/DEIMOS, and MMT/Hectospec. We identify 580 young stars as likely members of the NAP region based on criteria involving infrared excess, Li I 6708 absorption, X-ray emission, parallax, and proper motions. The spectral types of individual spectra are derived by fitting them with templates that are either empirical spectra of pre-main sequence stars, or model atmospheres. The templates are artificially veiled, and a best-fit combination of spectral type and veiling parameter is derived for each star. We use the spectral types with archival photometry to derive $V$-band extinction and stellar luminosity. From the H-R diagram, the median age of the young stars is about 1 Myr, with a luminosity dispersion of $\sim$0.3--0.4 dex. We investigate the photometric variability of the spectroscopic member sample using ZTF data, and conclude that photometric variability, while present, does not significantly contribute to the luminosity dispersion. While larger than the formal errors, the
We present observations of near-infrared 2.12 micro-meter molecular hydrogen outflows emerging from 1.1 mm dust continuum clumps in the North America and Pelican Nebula (NAP) complex selected from the Bolocam Galactic Plane Survey (BGPS). Hundreds of individual shocks powered by over 50 outflows from young stars are identified, indicating that the dusty molecular clumps surrounding the NGC 7000 / IC 5070 / W80 HII region are among the most active sites of on-going star formation in the Solar vicinity. A spectacular X-shaped outflow, MHO 3400, emerges from a young star system embedded in a dense clump more than a parsec from the ionization front associated with the Pelican Nebula (IC 5070). Suspected to be a binary, the source drives a pair of outflows with orientations differing by 80 degrees. Each flow exhibits S-shaped symmetry and multiple shocks indicating a pulsed and precessing jet. The `Gulf of Mexico' located south of the North America Nebula (NGC 7000), contains a dense cluster of molecular hydrogen objects (MHOs), Herbig-Haro (HH) objects, and over 300 YSOs, indicating a recent burst of star formation. The largest outflow detected thus far in the North America and Pelican
Free tropospheric (FT) nitrogen dioxide (NO2) plays a critical role in atmospheric oxidant chemistry as a source of tropospheric ozone and of the hydroxyl radical (OH). It also contributes significantly to satellite-observed tropospheric NO2 columns, and must be subtracted when using these columns to quantify surface emissions of nitrogen oxide radicals (NOx = NO + NO2). But large uncertainties remain in the sources and chemistry of FT NO2 because observations are sparse. Here, we construct a new cloud-sliced FT NO2 (700-300 hPa) product from the TEMPO geostationary satellite instrument over North America. This product provides higher data density and quality than previous products from low Earth orbit (LEO) instruments, with the first observation of the FT NO2 diurnal cycle across seasons. Combined with coincident observations from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), the TEMPO data demonstrate the dominance of lightning as a source of FT NO2 in non-winter seasons. Comparison of TEMPO FT NO2 data with the GEOS-CF atmospheric chemistry model shows overall consistent magnitudes, seasonality, and diurnal variation, with a midday minimum in non-winter seasons from photochemical l
Scientists collaborate through intricate networks, which impact the quality and scope of their research. At the same time, funding and institutional arrangements, as well as scientific and political cultures, affect the structure of collaboration networks. Since such arrangements and cultures differ across regions in the world in systematic ways, we surmise that collaboration networks and impact should also differ systematically across regions. To test this, we compare the structure of collaboration networks among prominent researchers in North America and Europe. We find that prominent researchers in Europe establish denser collaboration networks, whereas those in North-America establish more decentralized networks. We also find that the impact of the publications of prominent researchers in North America is significantly higher than for those in Europe, both when they collaborate with other prominent researchers and when they do not. Although Europeans collaborate with other prominent researchers more often, which increases their impact, we also find that repeated collaboration among prominent researchers decreases the synergistic effect of collaborating.
We present a study of 323 photometrically variable young stellar objects that are likely members of the North America and Pelican (NAP) nebulae star forming region. To do so, we utilize over two years of data in the $g$ and $r$ photometric bands from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). We first investigate periodic variability, finding 46 objects ($\sim$15\% of the sample) with significant periods that phase well, and can be attributed to stellar rotation. We then use the quasi-periodicity (Q) and flux asymmetry (M) variability metrics to assign morphological classifications to the remaining aperiodic light curves. Another $\sim$39\% of the variable star sample beyond the periodic sources are also flux-symmetric, but with a quasi-periodic (moderate $Q$) or stochastic (high $Q$) nature. Concerning flux-asymmetric sources, our analysis reveals $\sim$14\% bursters (high negative $M$) and $\sim$29\% dippers (high positive $M$). We also investigate the relationship between variability slopes in the $g$ vs $g-r$ color-magnitude diagram, and the light curve morphological classes. Burster-type objects have shallow slopes, while dipper-type variables tend to have higher slopes that are con
Far red spectra for 34 stars with V magnitudes between 15 and 18 in the direction of the North America and Pelican nebulae (NAP) star-forming region are obtained. Some of these stars were known earlier as emission-line objects, others were suspected as pre-main-sequence stars from photometry in the J, H, Ks and Vilnius systems. We confirm the presence of the H alpha line emission in the spectra of 19 stars, some of them exhibit also emission in the O I and Ca II lines. In some of the stars the H alpha absorption line is filled with emission. To estimate their evolutionary status, the spectral energy distributions, based on Vilnius, 2MASS, MSX and Spitzer photometry, are applied. Only eight emission-line stars are found to be located at a distance of the NAP complex. Others are either chromospherically active stars in front of the complex or distant luminous stars with H alpha absorption and emission components. For five stars with faint emission the data are not sufficient to estimate their distance. One star is found to be a heavily reddened K-supergiant located in the Outer arm. The stars, for which we failed to confirm the emission in H alpha, are mostly red dwarfs located in fr
We present the first results from a CARMA high-resolution $^{12}$CO(1-0), $^{13}$CO(1-0), and C$^{18}$O(1-0) molecular line survey of the North America and Pelican (NAP) Nebulae. CARMA observations have been combined with single-dish data from the Purple Mountain 13.7m telescope to add short spacings and produce high-dynamic-range images. We find that the molecular gas is predominantly shaped by the W80 HII bubble that is driven by an O star. Several bright rims are probably remnant molecular clouds heated and stripped by the massive star. Matching these rims in molecular lines and optical images, we construct a model of the three-dimensional structure of the NAP complex. Two groups of molecular clumps/filaments are on the near side of the bubble, one being pushed toward us, whereas the other is moving toward the bubble. Another group is on the far side of the bubble and moving away. The young stellar objects in the Gulf region reside in three different clusters, each hosted by a cloud from one of the three molecular clump groups. Although all gas content in the NAP is impacted by feedback from the central O star, some regions show no signs of star formation, while other areas clea
Severe local storm (SLS) activity is known to occur within specific thermodynamic and kinematic environments. These environments are commonly associated with key synoptic-scale features--including southerly Great Plains low-level jets, drylines, elevated mixed layers, and extratropical cyclones--that link the large-scale climate to SLS environments. This work analyzes spatiotemporal distributions of both the environmental parameters and synoptic-scale features in ERA5 reanalysis and in Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) during 1980--2014 over North America. Compared to radiosondes, ERA5 successfully reproduces SLS environments, with strong spatiotemporal correlations and low biases, especially over the Great Plains. Both ERA5 and CAM6 reproduce the climatology of SLS environments over the central United States as well as its strong seasonal and diurnal cycles. ERA5 and CAM6 also reproduce the climatological occurrence of the synoptic-scale features, with the distribution pattern similar to that of SLS environments. Compared to ERA5, CAM6 exhibits a high bias in Convective Available Potential Energy over the eastern United States primarily due to a high bias in surface mois
Network-wide traffic flow, which captures dynamic traffic volume on each link of a general network, is fundamental to smart mobility applications. However, the observed traffic flow from sensors is usually limited across the entire network due to the associated high installation and maintenance costs. To address this issue, existing research uses various supplementary data sources to compensate for insufficient sensor coverage and estimate the unobserved traffic flow. Although these studies have shown promising results, the inconsistent availability and quality of supplementary data across cities make their methods typically face a trade-off challenge between accuracy and generality. In this research, we first time advocate using the Global Open Multi-Source (GOMS) data within an advanced deep learning framework to break the trade-off. The GOMS data primarily encompass geographical and demographic information, including road topology, building footprints, and population density, which can be consistently collected across cities. More importantly, these GOMS data are either causes or consequences of transportation activities, thereby creating opportunities for accurate network-wide
Magnitudes and color indices in the Vilnius seven-color system are measured for 690 stars down to ~13.2 mag in the area of the North America and Pelican nebulae. Spectral types, absolute magnitudes, color excesses, interstellar extinctions and distances of the stars are determined. The plots of interstellar extinction Av versus distance for the North America Nebula and for the dark cloud L935 show that both areas are covered by the same absorbing cloud, situated at a distance of 600 pc. The maximal extinction in the area of the nebula is ~3 mag, while in the dark cloud L935 it is much greater.
A possibility of applying 2MASS J, H, Ks, IPHAS r, i and MegaCam u, g photometry of red giants for determining distances to dark clouds is investigated. Red clump giants with a small admixture of G5-K1 and M2-M3 stars of the giant branch can be isolated and used in determining distances to separate clouds or spiral arms. The method is applied to an area of the North America and Pelican nebulae complex. Interstellar extinctions of background red giants can be also used for mapping dust surface density in the cloud.
We propose a Bayesian, noisy-input, spatial-temporal generalised additive model to examine regional relative sea-level (RSL) changes over time. The model provides probabilistic estimates of component drivers of regional RSL change via the combination of a univariate spline capturing a common regional signal over time, random slopes and intercepts capturing site-specific (local), long-term linear trends and a spatial-temporal spline capturing residual, non-linear, local variations. Proxy and instrumental records of RSL and corresponding measurement errors inform the model and a noisy-input method accounts for proxy temporal uncertainties. Results focus on the decomposition of RSL over the past 3000 years along the Atlantic coast of North America.
Computer-Supported Cooperative Work, or simply CSCW, is the research area that studies the design and use of socio-technical technology for supporting group work. CSCW has a long tradition in interdisciplinary work exploring technical, social, and theoretical challenges for the design of technologies to support cooperative and collaborative work and life activities. However, most of the research tradition, methods, and theories in the field follow a strong trend grounded in social and cultural aspects from North America and Western Europe. Therefore, it is inevitable that some of the underlying, and established, knowledge in the field will not be directly transferrable or applicable to other populations. This paper presents the results of an interview study conducted with Latin American faculty on the feasability, viability, and prospect of a curriculum proposal for CSCW Education in Latin America: To this end, we conducted nine interviews with faculty currently based in six countries of the region, aiming to understand how a CSCW course targeted to undergraduate and/or graduate students in Latin America might be deployed. Our findings suggest that there are specific traits that ne