共找到 20 条结果
With consistent growth in Indian Economy, Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) have become a popular avenue for investment. With the modern technology simplifying investments, more investors are interested in making data driven decisions while subscribing for IPOs. In this paper, we describe a machine learning and natural language processing based approach for estimating if an IPO will be successful. We have extensively studied the impact of various facts mentioned in IPO filing prospectus, macroeconomic factors, market conditions, Grey Market Price, etc. on the success of an IPO. We created two new datasets relating to the IPOs of Indian companies. Finally, we investigated how information from multiple modalities (texts, images, numbers, and categorical features) can be used for estimating the direction and underpricing with respect to opening, high and closing prices of stocks on the IPO listing day.
Introduction: As digital health evolves, identifying factors that drive success is crucial. This study examines how reimbursement billing codes affect the long-term financial performance of digital health companies on U.S. stock markets, addressing the question: What separates the winners from the rest? Methods: We analyzed digital health companies that went public on U.S. stock exchanges between 2010 and 2021, offering products or services aimed at improving personal health or disease management within the U.S. market. A search using Google and existing IPO lists identified eligible companies. They were categorized based on the presence or absence of billing codes at the time of their initial public offering (IPO). Key performance indicators, including Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), relative performance to benchmark indices, and market capitalization change, were compared using Mann-Whitney U and Fisher's Exact tests. Results: Of the 33 companies analyzed, 15 (45.5%) had billing codes at IPO. The median IPO price was $17.00, with no significant difference between groups. Those with billing codes were 25.5 times more likely to achieve a positive CAGR. Their median market capit
Since its inauguration, ChiNext has gone through three time periods with two different regulation regimes and three different sets of listing day trading restrictions. This paper studies the impact of regulation regimes and listing day trading restrictions on the initial return of ChiNext IPOs. We hypothesize that the initial return of a ChiNext IPO contains the issuers intrinsic value and the investors overreaction. The intrinsic value is represented by the IPOs 21st day return (monthly return), and the difference between the monthly and initial returns (intramonth return) is a proxy of the overreaction. We find that all significant variables for all three returns in all three time periods fall into four categories: pre-listing demand, post-listing demand, market condition and pre-listing issuer value. We observe stark contrasts among variable categories for each of the returns in the three time periods, which reveals an evolution of the investors behavior with regard to the progression of regulation regimes. Based on our findings, we argue that the differences among the levels and determinants of initial return, monthly return (intrinsic value) and intramonth return (overreaction
An Initial Public Offering (IPO) filing is a document released when a private firm goes public, allowing individual (retail) investors to purchase its shares. These filings describe a firm's business, financials, and risks and are long, multimodal documents with narrative text and images. Despite their importance to financial markets, there is no large-scale, standardized dataset or benchmark for studying IPO filings with modern language and multimodal models. These documents pose significant challenges: filings frequently exceed 500,000 tokens and lack consistent structural organization. We introduce the IPO-Toolkit, an open-source framework for downloading and parsing IPO filings into standardized section-structured text and extracted images. The toolkit segments filings, extracts embedded images, and produces structured outputs that enable large-scale, reproducible analysis workflows over long, multimodal documents. Using this infrastructure, we construct the IPO-Dataset, a large, section-structured, multimodal dataset covering more than 109,000 IPO filings and amendments from 1994 to 2026 and containing over 76,000 images. We establish structured evaluation tasks over extracted
Finance Agent v2 (by Vals AI) has emerged as the reference benchmark for evaluating both Anthropic Claude and OpenAI ChatGPT frontier language models on financial tasks. However, it narrowly deals with periodic reporting from publicly traded companies (SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings), and its agentic harness relies on naive, unenriched chunk retrieval. Neither the task design nor the retrieval approach addresses the distinct challenges of IPO due diligence. SEC S-1 filings combine historical financial statements, governance structures, pro forma and common-control accounting treatments, capital-formation narratives, and underwriting-sensitive risk disclosures within substantially longer documents than typical periodic filings. That is why we introduce IPO Finance Agent, which extends the Finance Agent v2 framework along two directions: task domain and retrieval architecture. During our experiments, the original Finance Agent v2 harness basically failed to deliver any output related to the SpaceX S-1 filing, due to document length. We therefore had to improve the agentic harness with contextual retrieval, a more realistic and industry-standard approach for long documents. We also built a
Which tasks inside an enterprise workflow can a large-language-model agent reliably handle, and under what conditions? Most business process modeling frameworks still answer this at the activity level, even though a single activity can bundle work of radically different difficulty. This paper takes the analysis a step smaller. We describe two design artifacts developed in a financial-services IT setting: T-IPO, which represents each task as an eight-element tuple, and LARA (LLM Agent Readiness Assessment), a five-dimension rubric that scores a task's readiness for agent substitution. Compliance Sensitivity carries $1.5\times$ weight, a value we fixed through a three-round Delphi study and cross-checked with AHP. The rubric produces four levels, L1 to L4, and applies a floor rule so that a task with maximum compliance load cannot be classified below L3 no matter what the other scores say. Both artifacts sit inside a larger methodology (PARTIS) that we map onto BWW ontology in Section 3. We evaluate the instruments across 127 tasks. Inter-rater agreement reaches Fleiss' $κ= 0.80$; a replication at three further institutions returns $κ= 0.73$. A controlled comparison against activity-
Spatial patterns in observed climate trends remain poorly understood. Here we argue that a warming of land relative to ocean has shaped observed surface temperature and atmospheric circulation trends, including the negative Inter-Decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)-like tendency across the Pacific basin. Observed and modeled trends display an overall decline in sea level pressure over the faster-warming land relative to ocean, with a spatial pattern that resembles the seasonal cycle and the response to land heating in idealized climate model experiments. Coupled climate model simulations with historical forcing underestimate the land-sea warming ratio. It is only in the early response of abrupt CO2 quadrupling climate model simulations that climate models are able to recreate the observed land-sea warming ratio, in which case a strengthening of oceanic surface highs and a negative IPO-like surface warming pattern over the Pacific comparable to observed trends are seen. We propose that discrepancies between modeled and observed trends in many climate variables may be explained by the underestimation of the land-sea warming ratio by climate models. Determining the cause of this discrep
Prompt optimization has often been framed as a discrete search problem to find high-performing and robust instructions for an LLM. However, the search result might not make it transparent why and where specific prompt changes lead to performance gains. This is in contrast to how humans are instructed for annotation tasks. Here, researchers carefully design annotation guidelines, leading to enhanced annotation consistency. Our paper aims at joining these two approaches and introduces iPOE, a novel interpretable prompt optimization strategy via explanations. We guide the prompt optimization process by automatically created guidelines from explanations of annotation decisions (either automatically generated or from humans). This set of guidelines is furthermore optimized by as series of operations, including removing, adding, shuffling, and merging. The resulting prompt includes guidelines that instruct the annotation, making the decision process of the LLM and the optimization transparent. It therefore supports also laypeople in the area of prompt optimization, particularly in challenging domains requiring expertise. In our experiments on four datasets, we find that iPOE can improves
I examine potential mechanisms behind two stylized facts of initial public offerings (IPOs) returns. By analyzing investor emotions expressed on StockTwits and Twitter, I find that emotions conveyed through these social media platforms can help explain the mispricing of IPO stocks. The abundance of information and opinions shared on social media can generate hype around certain stocks, leading to investors' irrational buying and selling decisions. This can result in an overvaluation of the stock in the short term but often leads to a correction in the long term as the stock's performance fails to meet the inflated expectations. In particular, I find that IPOs with high levels of pre-IPO enthusiasm tend to have a significantly higher first-day return of 29.73%, compared to IPOs with lower levels of pre-IPO investor enthusiasm, which have an average first-day return of 17.59%. However, this initial enthusiasm may be misplaced, as IPOs with high pre-IPO investor enthusiasm demonstrate a much lower average long-run industry-adjusted return of -8.22%, compared to IPOs with lower pre-IPO investor enthusiasm, which have an average long-run industry-adjusted return of -0.14%. Diving deeper
Human preferences are diverse and dynamic, shaped by regional, cultural, and social factors. Existing alignment methods like Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and its variants often default to majority views, overlooking minority opinions and failing to capture latent user intentions in prompts. To address these limitations, we introduce \underline{\textbf{A}}daptive \textbf{\underline{I}}ntent-driven \textbf{\underline{P}}reference \textbf{\underline{O}}ptimization (\textbf{A-IPO}). Specifically,A-IPO introduces an intention module that infers the latent intent behind each user prompt and explicitly incorporates this inferred intent into the reward function, encouraging stronger alignment between the preferred model's responses and the user's underlying intentions. We demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that incorporating an intention--response similarity term increases the preference margin (by a positive shift of $λ\,Δ\mathrm{sim}$ in the log-odds), resulting in clearer separation between preferred and dispreferred responses compared to DPO. For evaluation, we introduce two new benchmarks, Real-pref, Attack-pref along with an extended version of an existing datas
In 2017 Jordanova and co-authors consider probabilities for p-outside values, and later on, they use them in order to construct distribution sensitive IPO estimators. These works do not take into account the asymmetry of the distribution. This shortcoming was recently overcome and the corresponding probabilities for asymmetric p-outside values, together with the so-called IAPO estimators, were defined. Here we apply these results to Exponentiated-Frechet distribution, introduced in 2003 by Nadarajah and Kotz. The abbreviation "IAPO" comes from "Inverse Probabilities for Asymmetric P-Outside Values". These estimators use as an auxiliary characteristic the empirical asymmetric $p$-fences. In this way, the system relating the estimated parameters and the asymmetric probabilities for $p$-outside values has an easier solution. The comparison with our previous study about the corresponding IPO and IPO-NM estimators shows that IAPO estimators give better results for the index of regular variation of the right tail of the cumulative distribution function. A simulation study depicts their rates of convergence, and finishes this work.
Offline algorithms for Reinforcement Learning from Human Preferences (RLHF), which use only a fixed dataset of sampled responses given an input, and preference feedback among these responses, have gained increasing prominence in the literature on aligning language models. In this paper, we study how the different design choices made in methods such as DPO, IPO, SLiC and many variants influence the quality of the learned policy, from a theoretical perspective. Our treatment yields insights into the choices of loss function, the policy which is used to normalize log-likelihoods, and also the role of the data sampling policy. Notably, our results do not rely on the standard reparameterization-style arguments used to motivate some of the algorithms in this family, which allows us to give a unified treatment to a broad class of methods. We also conduct a small empirical study to verify some of the theoretical findings on a standard summarization benchmark.
Post-training LLMs with RLHF and preference optimization methods (e.g., DPO, IPO) has greatly improved alignment, yet these approaches assume a single objective. In reality, humans express multiple, often conflicting objectives, such as helpfulness and harmlessness, with no natural scalarization. We study the multi-objective preference alignment problem, where a policy must balance several objectives simultaneously. We propose Multi-Objective Preference Optimization (MOPO), a constrained KL-regularized framework that maximizes a primary objective while enforcing lower bounds on secondary objectives via tunable safety thresholds. MOPO operates directly on pairwise preferences without point-wise rewards, and admits simple closed-form iterative updates. Empirically, MOPO recovers Pareto-optimal policies on synthetic benchmarks and, when fine-tuned on human-preference data, yields multi-billion parameter models that achieve higher rewards and Pareto-dominate baselines, with stable and robust optimization dynamics.
The rapid development of large language model (LLM) alignment algorithms has resulted in a complex and fragmented landscape, with limited clarity on the effectiveness of different methods and their inter-connections. This paper introduces Reward-Aware Preference Optimization (RPO), a mathematical framework that unifies popular preference optimization techniques in LLM alignment, including DPO, IPO, SimPO, and REINFORCE (LOO), among others. RPO provides a structured approach to disentangle and systematically study the impact of various design choices, such as the optimization objective, the number of responses per prompt, and the use of implicit versus explicit reward models, on LLM preference optimization. We additionally propose a new experimental setup that enables the clean and direct ablation of such design choices. Through an extensive series of ablation studies within the RPO framework, we gain insights into the critical factors shaping model alignment, offering practical guidance on the most effective strategies for improving LLM alignment.
Exit timing after an IPO is one of the most consequential decisions for venture capital (VC) investors, yet existing research focuses mainly on describing when VCs exit rather than evaluating whether those choices are economically optimal. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in synthesizing complex financial data and textual information but have not been applied to post-IPO exit decisions. This study introduces a framework that uses LLMs to estimate the optimal time for VC exit by analyzing monthly post IPO information financial performance, filings, news, and market signals and recommending whether to sell or continue holding. We compare these LLM generated recommendations with the actual exit dates observed for VCs and compute the return differences between the two strategies. By quantifying gains or losses associated with following the LLM, this study provides evidence on whether AI-driven guidance can improve exit timing and complements traditional hazard and real-options models in venture capital research.
Recent advances in video generation have enabled thrilling experiences in producing realistic videos driven by scalable diffusion transformers. However, they usually fail to produce satisfactory outputs that are aligned to users' authentic demands and preferences. In this work, we introduce Dual-Iterative Optimization (Dual-IPO), an iterative paradigm that sequentially optimizes both the reward model and the video generation model for improved synthesis quality and human preference alignment. For the reward model, our framework ensures reliable and robust reward signals via CoT-guided reasoning, voting-based self-consistency, and preference certainty estimation. Given this, we optimize video foundation models with guidance of signals from reward model's feedback, thus improving the synthesis quality in subject consistency, motion smoothness and aesthetic quality, etc. The reward model and video generation model complement each other and are progressively improved in the multi-round iteration, without requiring tediously manual preference annotations. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed Dual-IPO can effectively and consistently improve the video generation qualit
The biotech venture market faces intense capital demands and regulatory scrutiny, yet academic research on VC networks remains rooted in software and consumer-tech contexts. This dissertation investigates how repeated co-investment ties and domain-expertise homophily influence a venture's exit likelihood, timing, and route amid the sector's pronounced technological and market uncertainty. Using a novel panel of 11,680 biotechnology start-ups from the United States, Canada, and Europe (2010-2024), we apply pooled logit, Cox proportional-hazards, multinomial logit, and Fine-Gray competing-risk models. Our findings show that both average prior co-investment and investor homophily exhibit robust inverted-U relationships with exit outcomes. Moderate familiarity and scientific overlap maximize exit probability, while either sparse or excessive embedding reduces success. Governance mechanisms also play a crucial role: participation of a pharmaceutical corporate VC or a highly independent board flattens the negative effects of over-embedding, enabling syndicates to sustain exit momentum at higher levels of familiarity or homogeneity. Furthermore, the optimal degree of embeddedness is route
Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has emerged as the primary method for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. While it enables LLMs to achieve human-level alignment, it often incurs significant computational and financial costs due to its reliance on training external reward models or human-labeled preferences. In this work, we propose Implicit Preference Optimization (IPO), an alternative approach that leverages generative LLMs as preference classifiers, thereby reducing the dependence on external human feedback or reward models to obtain preferences. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation on the preference classification ability of LLMs using RewardBench, assessing models across different sizes, architectures, and training levels to validate our hypothesis. Furthermore, we investigate the self-improvement capabilities of LLMs by generating multiple responses for a given instruction and employing the model itself as a preference classifier for Direct Preference Optimization (DPO)-based training. Our findings demonstrate that models trained through IPO achieve performance comparable to those utilizing state-of-the-art reward models for obtaini
Although Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have progressed in solving complex problems, their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning often contains harmful content that can persist even when the final responses appear safe. We show that this issue still remains in existing methods which overlook the unique significance of safe reasoning, undermining their trustworthiness and posing potential risks in applications if unsafe reasoning is accessible for and exploited by malicious users. We therefore shift our focus to aligning the safety of reasoning itself in this paper and explore process supervision as the solution. However, simply rewarding safe reasoning proves inadequate due to low rollout diversity and limited training signals. To tackle this challenge, we first delve into the characteristics of safe reasoning and uncover several critical insights that 1) safe reasoning is often consolidated by a few critical steps of safety triggers; 2) compliance cues strongly correlate with unsafe continuations; and 3) corrective interventions reliably steer unsafe trajectories towards safer traces. Motivated by these, we propose Intervened Preference Optimization (IPO), an alignment method that enfor
Startups face a classic dilemma in innovation strategy: should they pursue cumulative, low-risk improvements or disruptive, high-risk breakthroughs? The Henderson and Clark framework suggests that architectural innovation, which reconfigures existing economic modules in novel ways, tends to be disruptive and risky for established organizations, but the success of this strategy for entrepreneurs remains less well understood, largely based on methodological constraints. Building on a complex-economics perspective and advanced computational models, we distinguish architectural innovation from modular innovation, which incrementally updates economic modules, and modular invention, which forges new ones, within the entrepreneurship context. Then we examine how each strategy influences startup performance. We analyze 298,915 U.S. venture-funded start-ups from 1976-2020, embedding company descriptions within a dynamic semantic space constructed from business and patent discourse to measure innovation structure across the entire economy. Event history models reveal that architectural innovation leads to successful IPOs and high-value acquisitions, while both modular innovation and inventio