Biological evolution depends on the passing down to subsequent generations of genetic information encoding beneficial traits, and on the removal of unfit individuals by a selection mechanism. However, selection acts on phenotypes, and is affected by random contingencies. Thus, a combination of fitness and luck determines which individuals will successfully reproduce and give rise to the next generation. To understand how randomness in the selection mechanism affects the long-term patterns of evolution, we studied an idealized evolution model. We show through simulations and mathematical analysis, that the speed of adaptation increases with increasing selection pressure only up to a threshold. Beyond the threshold, any increase of the selection pressure results in more weight given to random effects rather than on genetic fitness in determining which individuals will successfully reproduce. This severely reduces the speed of adaptation and the diversity in the gene pool. Our findings may be considered as a biological instance of Goodhart's law: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure". Finally, we show that this intricate response of evolution to natural sel
The set of known dialects of the genetic code (GC) is analyzed from the viewpoint of the genetic octave Yin-Yang-algebra. This algebra was described in the previous author's publications. The algebra was discovered on the basis of structural features of the GC in the matrix form of its presentation ("matrix genetics"). The octave Yin-Yang-algebra is considered as the pre-code or as the model of the GC. From the viewpoint of this algebraic model, for example, the sets of 20 amino acids and of 64 triplets consist of sub-sets of "male", "female" and "androgynous" molecules, etc. This algebra permits to reveal hidden peculiarities of the structure and evolution of the GC and to propose the conception of "sexual" relationships among genetic molecules. The first results of the analysis of the GC systems from such algebraic viewpoint say about the close connection between evolution of the GC and this algebra. They include 8 evolutionary rules of the dialects of the GC. The evolution of the GC is appeared as the struggle between male and female beginnings. The hypothesis about new biophysical factor of "sexual" interactions among genetic molecules is put forward. The matrix forms of presen
Two mechanisms that have been used to study the evolution of cooperative behavior are altruistic punishment, in which cooperative individuals pay additional costs to punish defection, and multilevel selection, in which competition between groups can help to counteract individual-level incentives to cheat. Boyd, Gintis, Bowles, and Richerson have used simulation models of cultural evolution to suggest that altruistic punishment and pairwise group-level competition can work in concert to promote cooperation, even when neither mechanism can do so on its own. In this paper, we formulate a PDE model for multilevel selection motivated by the approach of Boyd and coauthors, modeling individual-level birth-death competition with a replicator equation based on individual payoffs and describing group-level competition with pairwise conflicts based on differences in the average payoffs of the competing groups. Building off of existing PDE models for multilevel selection with frequency-independent group-level competition, we use analytical and numerical techniques to understand how the forms of individual and average payoffs can impact the long-time ability to sustain altruistic punishment in
Stronger selection implies faster evolution---that is, the greater the force, the faster the change. This apparently self-evident proposition, however, is derived under the assumption that genetic variation within a population is primarily supplied by mutation (i.e.\ mutation-driven evolution). Here, we show that this proposition does not actually hold for recombination-driven evolution, i.e.\ evolution in which genetic variation is primarily created by recombination rather than mutation. By numerically investigating population genetics models of recombination, migration and selection, we demonstrate that stronger selection can slow down evolution on a perfectly smooth fitness landscape. Through simple analytical calculation, this apparently counter-intuitive result is shown to stem from two opposing effects of natural selection on the rate of evolution. On the one hand, natural selection tends to increase the rate of evolution by increasing the fixation probability of fitter genotypes. On the other hand, natural selection tends to decrease the rate of evolution by decreasing the chance of recombination between immigrants and resident individuals. As a consequence of these opposing
We give a overview of stochastic models of evolution that have found applications in genetics, ecology and linguistics for an audience of nonspecialists, especially statistical physicists. In particular, we focus mostly on neutral models in which no intrinsic advantage is ascribed to a particular type of the variable unit, for example a gene, appearing in the theory. In many cases these models are exactly solvable and furthermore go some way to describing observed features of genetic, ecological and linguistic systems.
Numerous living systems are hierarchically organised, whereby replicating components are grouped into reproducing collectives -- e.g., organelles are grouped into cells, and cells are grouped into multicellular organisms. In such systems, evolution can operate at two levels: evolution among collectives, which tends to promote selfless cooperation among components within collectives (called altruism), and evolution within collectives, which tends to promote cheating among components within collectives. The balance between within- and among-collective evolution thus exerts profound impacts on the fitness of these systems. Here, we investigate how this balance depends on the size of a collective (denoted by $N$) and the mutation rate of components ($m$) through mathematical analyses and computer simulations of multiple population genetics models. We first confirm a previous result that increasing $N$ or $m$ accelerates within-collective evolution relative to among-collective evolution, thus promoting the evolution of cheating. Moreover, we show that when within- and among-collective evolution exactly balance each other out, the following scaling relation generally holds: $Nm^α$ is a c
The possibility of complicated dynamic behaviour driven by non-linear feedbacks in dynamical systems has revolutionized science in the latter part of the last century. Yet despite examples of complicated frequency dynamics, the possibility of long-term evolutionary chaos is rarely considered. The concept of "survival of the fittest" is central to much evolutionary thinking and embodies a perspective of evolution as a directional optimization process exhibiting simple, predictable dynamics. This perspective is adequate for simple scenarios, when frequency-independent selection acts on scalar phenotypes. However, in most organisms many phenotypic properties combine in complicated ways to determine ecological interactions, and hence frequency-dependent selection. Therefore, it is natural to consider models for the evolutionary dynamics generated by frequency-dependent selection acting simultaneously on many different phenotypes. Here we show that complicated, chaotic dynamics of long-term evolutionary trajectories in phenotype space is very common in a large class of such models when the dimension of phenotype space is large, and when there are epistatic interactions between the pheno
1) Micro-evolutionary predictions are complicated by ecological feedbacks like density dependence, while ecological predictions can be complicated by evolutionary change. A widely used approach in micro-evolution, quantitative genetics, struggles to incorporate ecological processes into predictive models, while structured population modelling, a tool widely used in ecology, rarely incorporates evolution explicitly. 2) In this paper we develop a flexible, general framework that links quantitative genetics and structured population models. We use the quantitative genetic approach to write down the phenotype as an additive map. We then construct integral projection models for each component of the phenotype. The dynamics of the distribution of the phenotype are generated by combining distributions of each of its components. Population projection models can be formulated on per generation or on shorter time steps. 3) We introduce the framework before developing example models with parameters chosen to exhibit specific dynamics. These models reveal (i) how evolution of a phenotype can cause populations to move from one dynamical regime to another (e.g. from stationarity to cycles), (ii)
Environmental and genetic mutations can transform the cells in a co-operating healthy tissue into an ecosystem of individualistic tumour cells that compete for space and resources. Various selection forces are responsible for driving the evolution of cells in a tumour towards more malignant and aggressive phenotypes that tend to have a fitness advantage over the older populations. Although the evolutionary nature of cancer has been recognised for more than three decades (ever since the seminal work of Nowell) it has been only recently that tools traditionally used by ecological and evolutionary researchers have been adopted to study the evolution of cancer phenotypes in populations of individuals capable of co-operation and competition. In this chapter we will describe game theory as an important tool to study the emergence of cell phenotypes in a tumour and will critically review some of its applications in cancer research. These applications demonstrate that game theory can be used to understand the dynamics of somatic cancer evolution and suggest new therapies in which this knowledge could be applied to gain some control over the evolution of the tumour.
We present the Prime Focus Spectrograph (PFS) Galaxy Evolution pillar of the 360-night PFS Subaru Strategic Program. This 130-night program will capitalize on the wide wavelength coverage and massive multiplexing capabilities of PFS to study the evolution of typical galaxies from cosmic dawn to the present. From Lyman alpha emitters at z~7 to probe reionization, drop-outs at z~3 to map the inter-galactic medium in absorption, and a continuum-selected sample at z~1.5, we will chart the physics of galaxy evolution within the evolving cosmic web. This article is dedicated to the memory of Olivier Le Fevre, who was an early advocate for the construction of PFS, and a key early member of the Galaxy Evolution Working Group.
Evolutionary dynamics in an uncorrelated rugged fitness landscape is studied in the framework of Eigen's molecular quasispecies model. We consider the case of strong selection, which is analogous to the zero temperature limit in the equivalent problem of directed polymers in random media. In this limit the population is always localized at a single temporary master sequence $σ^\ast(t)$, and we study the statistical properties of the evolutionary trajectory which $σ^\ast(t)$ traces out in sequence space. Numerical results for binary sequences of length N=10 and exponential and uniform fitness distributions are presented. Evolution proceeds by intermittent jumps between local fitness maxima, where high lying maxima are visited more frequently by the trajectories. The probability distribution for the total time $T$ required to reach the global maximum shows a $T^{-2}$-tail, which is argued to be universal and to derive from near-degenerate fitness maxima. The total number of jumps along any given trajectory is always small, much smaller than predicted by the statistics of records for random long-ranged evolutionary jumps.
Epistatic interactions between residues determine a protein's adaptability and shape its evolutionary trajectory. When a protein experiences a changed environment, it is under strong selection to find a peak in the new fitness landscape. It has been shown that strong selection increases epistatic interactions as well as the ruggedness of the fitness landscape, but little is known about how the epistatic interactions change under selection in the long-term evolution of a protein. Here we analyze the evolution of epistasis in the protease of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) using protease sequences collected for almost a decade from both treated and untreated patients, to understand how epistasis changes and how those changes impact the long-term evolvability of a protein. We use an information-theoretic proxy for epistasis that quantifies the co-variation between sites, and show that positive information is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition that detects epistasis in most cases. We analyze the "fossils" of the evolutionary trajectories of the protein contained in the sequence data, and show that epistasis continues to enrich under strong selection, but not for
The last few million years on planet Earth have witnessed two remarkable phases of hominid development, starting with a phase of biological evolution characterised by rather rapid increase of the size of the brain. This has been followed by a phase of even more rapid technological evolution and concomitant expansion of the size of the population, that began when our own particular `sapiens' species emerged, just a few hundred thousand years ago. The present investigation exploits the analogy between the neo-Darwinian genetic evolution mechanism governing the first phase, and the memetic evolution mechanism governing the second phase. From the outset of the latter until very recently -- about the year 2000 -- the growth of the global population N was roughly governed by an equation of the form dN/Ndt= N/T*, in which T* is a coefficient introduced (in 1960) by von Foerster, who evaluated it empirically as about two hundred thousand million years. It is shown here how the value of this hitherto mysterious timescale governing the memetic phase is explicable in terms of what happenned in the preceding genetic phase. The outcome is that the order of magnitude of the Foerster timescale ca
The evolution of cooperation often depends upon population structure, yet nearly all models of cooperation implicitly assume that this structure remains static. This is a simplifying assumption, because most organisms possess genetic traits that affect their population structure to some degree. These traits, such as a group size preference, affect the relatedness of interacting individuals and hence the opportunity for kin or group selection. We argue that models that do not explicitly consider their evolution cannot provide a satisfactory account of the origin of cooperation, because they cannot explain how the prerequisite population structures arise. Here, we consider the concurrent evolution of genetic traits that affect population structure, with those that affect social behavior. We show that not only does population structure drive social evolution, as in previous models, but that the opportunity for cooperation can in turn drive the creation of population structures that support it. This occurs through the generation of linkage disequilibrium between socio-behavioral and population-structuring traits, such that direct kin selection on social behavior creates indirect select
The evolutionary dynamics of HIV during the chronic phase of infection is driven by the host immune response and by selective pressures exerted through drug treatment. To understand and model the evolution of HIV quantitatively, the parameters governing genetic diversification and the strength of selection need to be known. While mutation rates can be measured in single replication cycles, the relevant effective recombination rate depends on the probability of coinfection of a cell with more than one virus and can only be inferred from population data. However, most population genetic estimators for recombination rates assume absence of selection and are hence of limited applicability to HIV, since positive and purifying selection are important in HIV evolution. Here, we estimate the rate of recombination and the distribution of selection coefficients from time-resolved sequence data tracking the evolution of HIV within single patients. By examining temporal changes in the genetic composition of the population, we estimate the effective recombination to be r=1.4e-5 recombinations per site and generation. Furthermore, we provide evidence that selection coefficients of at least 15% o
Many life-history traits, like the age at maturity or adult longevity, are important determinants of the generation time. For instance, semelparous species whose adults reproduce once and die have shorter generation times than iteroparous species that reproduce on several occasions. A shorter generation time ensures a higher growth rate in stable environments where resources are in excess, and is therefore a positively selected feature in this (rarely met) situation. In a stable and limiting environment, all combination of traits (or strategies) that produce the same number of viable offspring on average are strictly neutral even when their generation times differ. We first study the evolution of life-history strategies with different generation times in this context, and show that those with the longest generation time represent the most likely evolutionary outcomes. Indeed, strategies with longer generation times generate fewer mutants per time unit, which makes them less likely to be replaced within a given time period. This `turnover bias' inevitably exists and favors the evolution of strategies with long generation times. Its real impact, however, should depend on the strength
Although mutations drive the evolutionary process, the rates at which the mutations occur are themselves subject to evolutionary forces. Our purpose here is to understand the role of selection and random genetic drift in the evolution of mutation rates, and we address this question in asexual populations at mutation-selection equilibrium neglecting selective sweeps. Using a multitype branching process, we calculate the fixation probability of a rare nonmutator in a large asexual population of mutators, and find that a nonmutator is more likely to fix when the deleterious mutation rate of the mutator population is high. Compensatory mutations in the mutator population are found to decrease the fixation probability of a nonmutator when the selection coefficient is large. But, surprisingly, the fixation probability changes nonmonotonically with increasing compensatory mutation rate when the selection is mild. Using these results for the fixation probability and a drift-barrier argument, we find a novel relationship between the mutation rates and the population size. We also discuss the time to fix the nonmutator in an adapted population of asexual mutators, and compare our results wit
Genetic robustness, the preservation of an optimal phenotype in the face of mutations, is critical to the understanding of evolution as phenotypically expressed genetic variation is the fuel of natural selection. The origin of genetic robustness, whether it evolves directly by natural selection or it is a correlated byproduct of other phenotypic traits, is, however, unresolved. Examining microRNA (miRNA) genes of several eukaryotic species, Borenstein and Ruppin (Borenstein et al. 2006, PNAS 103: 6593), showed that the structure of miRNA precursor stem-loops exhibits significantly increased mutational robustness in comparison with a sample of random RNA sequences with the same stem-loop structure. The observed robustness was found to be uncorrelated with traditional measures of environmental robustness -- implying that miRNA sequences show evidence of the direct evolution of genetic robustness. These findings are surprising as theoretical results indicate that the direct evolution of robustness requires high mutation rates and/or large effective population sizes only found among RNA viruses, not multicellular eukaryotes. Introducing a novel measure of environmental robustness based
Energy levels statistics following the Gaussian Symplectic Ensemble (GSE) of Random Matrix Theory have been predicted theoretically and observed numerically in numerous quantum chaotic systems. However in all these systems there has been one unifying feature: the combination of half-integer spin and time-reversal invariance. Here we provide an alternative mechanism for obtaining GSE statistics that is based on geometric symmetries of a quantum system which alleviates the need for spin. As an example, we construct a quantum graph with a particular discrete symmetry given by the quaternion group Q8. GSE statistics is then observed within one of its subspectra.
The distribution and heritability of many traits depends on numerous loci in the genome. In general, the astronomical number of possible genotypes makes the system with large numbers of loci difficult to describe. Multilocus evolution, however, greatly simplifies in the limit of weak selection and frequent recombination. In this limit, populations rapidly reach Quasi-Linkage Equilibrium (QLE) in which the dynamics of the full genotype distribution, including correlations between alleles at different loci, can be parameterized by the allele frequencies. This review provides a simplified exposition of the concept and mathematics of QLE which is central to the statistical description of genotypes in sexual populations. We show how key results of Quantitative Genetics such as the generalized Fisher's "Fundamental Theorem", along with Wright's Adaptive Landscape, emerge within QLE from the dynamics of the genotype distribution. We then discuss under what circumstances QLE is applicable, and what the breakdown of QLE implies for the population structure and the dynamics of selection. Understanding of the fundamental aspects of multilocus evolution obtained through simplified models may b