Online test-time adaptation for 3D human pose estimation is used for video streams that differ from training data. Ground truth 2D poses are used for adaptation, but only estimated 2D poses are available in practice. This paper addresses adapting models to streaming videos with estimated 2D poses. Comparing adaptations reveals the challenge of limiting estimation errors while preserving accurate pose information. To this end, we propose adaptive aggregation, a two-stage optimization, and local augmentation for handling varying levels of estimated pose error. First, we perform adaptive aggregation across videos to initialize the model state with labeled representative samples. Within each video, we use a two-stage optimization to benefit from 2D fitting while minimizing the impact of erroneous updates. Second, we employ local augmentation, using adjacent confident samples to update the model before adapting to the current non-confident sample. Our method surpasses state-of-the-art by a large margin, advancing adaptation towards more practical settings of using estimated 2D poses.
Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPW) has been well applied in causal inference to estimate population-level estimands from observational studies. For time-to-event outcomes, the failure time distribution can be estimated by estimating the cumulative hazard in the presence of random right censoring. IPW can be performed by weighting the event counting process and at-risk process by the inverse treatment probability, resulting in an adjusted Nelson--Aalen estimator for the population-level counterfactual cumulative incidence function. We consider the adjusted Nelson--Aalen estimator with an estimated propensity score in the competing risks setting. When the estimated propensity score is regular and asymptotically linear, we derive the influence functions for the counterfactual cumulative hazard and cumulative incidence. Then we establish the asymptotic properties for the estimators. We show that the uncertainty in the estimated propensity score contributes to an additional variation in the estimators. However, through simulation and real-data application, we find that such an additional variation is usually small.
The Highway Performance Monitoring System, managed by the Federal Highway Administration, provides data on average annual daily traffic volume across roadways in the United States, but it has limited representation of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle traffic on lower-volume roadways that are not part of the national highway system. This gap limits research and policy analysis on the community impacts of truck traffic, especially concerning air quality and public health. To address this, we use random forest regression to estimate medium- and heavy-duty vehicle traffic volumes on network links where these data are missing. The result is a comprehensive vehicle traffic dataset that covers 85.2% of public roadways in the United States. From these data, we also calculate traffic density values for each census block and vehicle class that can serve as a high-resolution surrogate for traffic-related air pollution exposure in public health studies and policy analysis. Our high-resolution spatial data products are rigorously validated and provide a more complete representation of truck traffic than any existing publicly available dataset. These datasets are valuable for transportation planni
A solution to control for nonresponse bias consists of multiplying the design weights of respondents by the inverse of estimated response probabilities to compensate for the nonrespondents. Maximum likelihood and calibration are two approaches that can be applied to obtain estimated response probabilities. We consider a common framework in which these approaches can be compared. We develop an asymptotic study of the behavior of the resulting estimator when calibration is applied. A logistic regression model for the response probabilities is postulated. Missing at random and unclustered data are supposed. Three main contributions of this work are: 1) we show that the estimators with the response probabilities estimated via calibration are asymptotically equivalent to unbiased estimators and that a gain in efficiency is obtained when estimating the response probabilities via calibration as compared to the estimator with the true response probabilities, 2) we show that the estimators with the response probabilities estimated via calibration are doubly robust to model misspecification and explain why double robustness is not guaranteed when maximum likelihood is applied, and 3) we disc
The finite sample variance of an inverse propensity weighted estimator is derived in the case of discrete control variables with finite support. The obtained expressions generally corroborate widely-cited asymptotic theory showing that estimated propensity scores are superior to true propensity scores in the context of inverse propensity weighting. However, similar analysis of a modified estimator demonstrates that foreknowledge of the true propensity function can confer a statistical advantage when estimating average treatment effects.
When inferring parameters from a Gaussian-distributed data set by computing a likelihood, a covariance matrix is needed that describes the data errors and their correlations. If the covariance matrix is not known a priori, it may be estimated and thereby becomes a random object with some intrinsic uncertainty itself. We show how to infer parameters in the presence of such an estimated covariance matrix, by marginalising over the true covariance matrix, conditioned on its estimated value. This leads to a likelihood function that is no longer Gaussian, but rather an adapted version of a multivariate t-distribution, which has the same numerical complexity as the multivariate Gaussian. As expected, marginalisation over the true covariance matrix improves inference when compared with Hartlap et al.'s method, which uses an unbiased estimate of the inverse covariance matrix but still assumes that the likelihood is Gaussian.
Survivorship analysis allows to statistically analyze situations that can be modeled as waiting times to an event. These waiting times are characterized by the cumulative hazard rate, which can be estimated by the Nelson-Aalen estimator or diverse confidence estimators based on asymptotic statistics. To better understand the small sample properties of these estimators, the speed of convergence of the estimate to the exact value is examined. This is done by deriving large deviation principles and their rate functions for the estimators and examining their properties. It is shown that these rate functions are asymmetric, leading to a tendency of the estimated cumulative hazard rate to overestimate the true cumulative hazard rate. This tendency is strongest in the cases of (1) small sample sizes and (2) low tail probabilities. Taking this tendency into account can improve risk assessments of rare events and of cases where only little data is available.
We consider Empirical Bayes (EB) estimation in the normal means problem, when the standard deviations of the observations are not known precisely, but estimated with error -- which is almost always the case in practical applications. In classical statistics accounting for estimated standard errors usually involves replacing a normal distribution with a $t$ distribution. This suggests approaching this problem by replacing the normal assumption with a $t$ assumption, leading to an "EB $t$-means problem". Here we show that an approach along these lines can indeed work, but only with some care. Indeed, a naive application of this idea is flawed, and can perform poorly. We suggest how this flaw can be remedied by a two-stage procedure, which first performs EB shrinkage estimation of the standard errors and then solves an EB $t$-means problem. We give numerical results illustrating the effectiveness of this remedy.
This manuscript is a supplemental document providing the omitted material for our paper entitled "Nonparametric kernel estimation of the probability density function of regression errors using estimated residuals" [arXiv:1010.0439]. The paper is submitted to Journal of Nonparametric Statistics.
This paper deals with the nonparametric density estimation of the regression error term assuming its independence with the covariate. The difference between the feasible estimator which uses the estimated residuals and the unfeasible one using the true residuals is studied. An optimal choice of the bandwidth used to estimate the residuals is given. We also study the asymptotic normality of the feasible kernel estimator and its rate-optimality.
The main purpose of this paper is to provide an asymptotically optimal test. The proposed statistic is of Neyman-Pearson-type when the parameters are estimated with a particular kind of estimators. It is shown that the proposed estimators enable us to achieve this end. Two particular cases, AR(1) and ARCH models were studied and the asymptotic power function was derived.
We present empirical relations for determining the amount by which the effective temperatures and radii -- and therefore the estimated masses -- of low-mass stars and brown dwarfs are altered due to chromospheric activity. We base our relations on a large set of low-mass stars in the field with Halpha activity measurements, and on a set of low-mass eclipsing binaries with X-ray activity measurements from which we indirectly infer the Halpha activity. Both samples yield consistent relations linking the amount by which an active object's temperature is suppressed, and its radius inflated, to the strength of its Halpha emission. These relations are found to approximately preserve bolometric luminosity. We apply these relations to the peculiar brown-dwarf eclipsing binary 2M0535-05, in which the active, higher-mass brown dwarf has a cooler temperature than its inactive, lower-mass companion. The relations correctly reproduce the observed temperatures and radii of 2M0535-05 after accounting for the Halpha emission; 2M0535-05 would be in precise agreement with theoretical isochrones were it inactive. The relations that we present are applicable to brown dwarfs and low-mass stars with mas
This paper focuses on random projection operators when the subspace of projection is estimated. We derive non-asymptotic upper bounds on the error between the projection onto the estimated subspace and the projection onto the underlying subspace. The provided upper bounds depend on the noise and on intrinsic properties of the estimated subspace. Several scenarios are considered according to the distribution of the estimator of the matrix spanning the subspace. The aforementioned bounds are attained under a structural assumption on the Gram matrix associated with the subspace. Regularized estimators are introduced to circumvent this assumption. An example is given in the partial least square (PLS) framework where the estimated subspace is spanned by the PLS weights.
In a widely cited paper, Xie and Liu (henceforth XL) proposed to use inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to account for possible confounding in observational studies with survival endpoints subject to right censoring. Their proposal includes an IPTW Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimator for the survival function of a treatment-specific potential failure time, which can be used to evaluate the causal effect of one treatment versus another. The IPTW KM estimator is remarkably simple and highly effective for confounding bias correction. The method has been implemented in SAS's popular procedure LIFETEST for analyzing survival data and has seen widespread use. This letter is concerned with variance estimation for the IPTW KM estimator. The variance estimator provided by XL does not account for the variability of the IPTW weight when the propensity score is estimated from data, as is usually the case in observational studies. In this letter, we provide a rigorous asymptotic analysis of the IPTW KM estimator based on an estimated propensity score. Our analysis indicates that estimating the propensity score does tend to result in a smaller asymptotic variance, which can be estimated c
Comparative Judgement is an assessment method where item ratings are estimated based on rankings of subsets of the items. These rankings are typically pairwise, with ratings taken to be the estimated parameters from fitting a Bradley-Terry model. Likelihood penalization is often employed. Adaptive scheduling of the comparisons can increase the efficiency of the assessment. We show that the most commonly used penalty is not the best-performing penalty under adaptive scheduling and can lead to substantial bias in parameter estimates. We demonstrate this using simulated and real data and provide a theoretical explanation for the relative performance of the penalties considered. Further, we propose a superior approach based on bootstrapping. It is shown to produce better parameter estimates for adaptive schedules and to be robust to variations in underlying strength distributions and initial penalization method.
We present a comprehensive neural architecture, the PUREPath, which leverages a nested Probabilistic multi-modal U- Net framework, augmented by the inclusion of probabilistic ResNet blocks in the Expanding Pathway of the decoders, to estimate the posterior density of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) signal conditioned on the observed CMB data and the training dataset. By seamlessly integrating Bayesian statistics and variational methods our model effectively minimizes foreground contamination in the observed CMB maps. The model is trained using foreground and noise contaminated CMB temperature maps simulated at Planck LFI and HFI frequency channels 30 - 353 GHz using publicly available Code for Anisotropies in the Microwave Background (CAMB) and Python Sky Model (PySM) packages. During training, our model transforms initial prior distribution on the model parameters to posterior distributions based on the training data. From the joint full posterior of the model parameters, during inference, a predicitve CMB posterior and summary statistics such as the predictive mean, variance etc of the cleaned CMB map is estimated. The predictive standard deviation map provides a direct and
We consider likelihood-based two-step estimation of latent variable models, in which just the measurement model is estimated in the first step and the measurement parameters are then fixed at their estimated values in the second step where the structural model is estimated. We show how this approach can be implemented for latent trait models (item response theory models) where the latent variables are continuous and their measurement indicators are categorical variables. The properties of two-step estimators are examined using simulation studies and applied examples. They perform well, and have attractive practical and conceptual properties compared to the alternative one-step and three-step approaches. These results are in line with previous findings for other families of latent variable models. This provides strong evidence that two-step estimation is a flexible and useful general method of estimation for different types of latent variable models.
This paper proposes a highly accurate trajectory estimation method for outdoor mobile robots using global navigation satellite system (GNSS) time differences of carrier phase (TDCP) measurements. By using GNSS TDCP, the relative 3D position can be estimated with millimeter precision. However, when a phenomenon called cycle slip occurs, wherein the carrier phase measurement jumps and becomes discontinuous, it is impossible to accurately estimate the relative position using TDCP. Although previous studies have eliminated the effect of cycle slip using a robust optimization technique, it was difficult to completely eliminate the effect of outliers. In this paper, we propose a method to detect GNSS carrier phase cycle slip, estimate the amount of cycle slip, and modify the observed TDCP to calculate the relative position using the factor graph optimization framework. The estimated relative position acts as a loop closure in graph optimization and contributes to the reduction in the integration error of the relative position. Experiments with an unmanned aerial vehicle showed that by modifying the cycle slip using the proposed method, the vehicle trajectory could be estimated with an ac
The recently published ICH E9 addendum on estimands in clinical trials provides a framework for precisely defining the treatment effect that is to be estimated, but says little about estimation methods. Here we report analyses of a clinical trial in type 2 diabetes, targeting the effects of randomised treatment, handling rescue treatment and discontinuation of randomised treatment using the so-called hypothetical strategy. We show how this can be estimated using mixed models for repeated measures, multiple imputation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, G-formula and G-estimation. We describe their assumptions and practical details of their implementation using packages in R. We report the results of these analyses, broadly finding similar estimates and standard errors across the estimators. We discuss various considerations relevant when choosing an estimation approach, including computational time, how to handle missing data, whether to include post intercurrent event data in the analysis, whether and how to adjust for additional time-varying confounders, and whether and how to model different types of ICE separately.
Self-supervised learning for monocular depth estimation is widely investigated as an alternative to supervised learning approach, that requires a lot of ground truths. Previous works have successfully improved the accuracy of depth estimation by modifying the model structure, adding objectives, and masking dynamic objects and occluded area. However, when using such estimated depth image in applications, such as autonomous vehicles, and robots, we have to uniformly believe the estimated depth at each pixel position. This could lead to fatal errors in performing the tasks, because estimated depth at some pixels may make a bigger mistake. In this paper, we theoretically formulate a variational model for the monocular depth estimation to predict the reliability of the estimated depth image. Based on the results, we can exclude the estimated depths with low reliability or refine them for actual use. The effectiveness of the proposed method is quantitatively and qualitatively demonstrated using the KITTI benchmark and Make3D dataset.