In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, empirical data have revealed that large-scale health crises not only cause immediate disruptions in mortality dynamics but also have persistent effects that may last for several years. Existing mortality models largely assume that mortality shocks are transitory and overlook how their effects can be long-lasting and heterogeneous across age groups and causes of death. In response to this limitation, we propose a novel stochastic mortality model that captures age- and cause-specific long-lasting effects of mortality jumps through a gamma-density-like decay function, estimated via a customized conditional maximum likelihood algorithm. Applying the model to recent U.S. mortality data, we reveal divergent persistence patterns across demographic groups and provide key insights into the tail risk profiles of life insurance and annuity products. Our scenario-based analyses further show that neglecting persistent shock effects can lead to suboptimal hedging, while the proposed model enables what-if testing to analyze such effects under potential future health crises.
Accurately estimating nonlinear audio effects without access to paired input-output signals remains a challenging problem. This work studies unsupervised probabilistic approaches for solving this task. We introduce a method, novel for this application, based on diffusion generative models for blind system identification, enabling the estimation of unknown nonlinear effects using black- and gray-box models. This study compares this method with a previously proposed adversarial approach, analyzing the performance of both methods under different parameterizations of the effect operator and varying lengths of available effected recordings. Through experiments on guitar distortion effects, we show that the diffusion-based approach provides more stable results and is less sensitive to data availability, while the adversarial approach is superior at estimating more pronounced distortion effects. Our findings contribute to the robust unsupervised blind estimation of audio effects, demonstrating the potential of diffusion models for system identification in music technology.
Tightly-focused laser beams, or optical tweezers, are essential for analogue and digital quantum simulation with neutral atoms and trapped ions. Despite this, most of the current intuition and theoretical treatment utilizes the paraxial approximation, which breaks down at the focus of optical tweezers. We develop an analytic model, which we use in tandem with numerical simulations, to quantify how non-paraxial effects will manifest in the next-generation of scalable quantum hardware, where tightly focused beams are used for individual qubit control. In particular, we calculate the light potentials of Gaussian and Laguerre-Gaussian beams driving the quadrupole $^2$S$_{1/2}\rightarrow$ $^2$D$_{5/2}$ transition in $^{40}$Ca$^+$. Longitudinal field components in the beam center cause spatially-dependent Rabi frequencies and AC Stark shifts, leading to unexpected qubit-motion coupling. We characterize single- and two-qubit gate infidelities due to this effect with an analytic model and numerical simulation. We identify regimes where non-paraxial effects should be taken into account for high-precision quantum control. Finally, we highlight that non-paraxial effects are potentially more s
We propose causal effect estimators based on empirical Fréchet means and operator-valued kernels, tailored to functional data spaces. These methods address the challenges of high-dimensionality, sequential ordering, and model complexity while preserving robustness to treatment misspecification. Using structural assumptions, we obtain compact representations of potential outcomes, enabling scalable estimation of causal effects over time and across covariates. We provide both theoretical, regarding the consistency of functional causal effects, as well as empirical comparison of a range of proposed causal effect estimators. Applications to binary treatment settings with functional outcomes illustrate the framework's utility in biomedical monitoring, where outcomes exhibit complex temporal dynamics. Our estimators accommodate scenarios with registered covariates and outcomes, aligning them to the Fréchet means, as well as cases requiring higher-order representations to capture intricate covariate-outcome interactions. These advancements extend causal inference to dynamic and non-linear domains, offering new tools for understanding complex treatment effects in functional data settings.
Death among subjects is common in observational studies evaluating the causal effects of interventions among geriatric or severely ill patients. High mortality rates complicate the comparison of the prevalence of adverse events (AEs) between interventions. This problem is often referred to as outcome "truncation" by death. A possible solution is to estimate the survivor average causal effect (SACE), an estimand that evaluates the effects of interventions among those who would have survived under both treatment assignments. However, because the SACE does not include subjects who would have died under one or both arms, it does not consider the relationship between AEs and death. We propose a Bayesian method which imputes the unobserved mortality and AE outcomes for each participant under the intervention they did not receive. Using the imputed outcomes we define a composite ordinal outcome for each patient, combining the occurrence of death and the AE in an increasing scale of severity. This allows for the comparison of the effects of the interventions on death and the AE simultaneously among the entire sample. We implement the procedure to analyze the incidence of heart failure amon
Natural science datasets frequently violate assumptions of independence. Samples may be clustered (e.g. by study site, subject, or experimental batch), leading to spurious associations, poor model fitting, and confounded analyses. While largely unaddressed in deep learning, this problem has been handled in the statistics community through mixed effects models, which separate cluster-invariant fixed effects from cluster-specific random effects. We propose a general-purpose framework for Adversarially-Regularized Mixed Effects Deep learning (ARMED) models through non-intrusive additions to existing neural networks: 1) an adversarial classifier constraining the original model to learn only cluster-invariant features, 2) a random effects subnetwork capturing cluster-specific features, and 3) an approach to apply random effects to clusters unseen during training. We apply ARMED to dense, convolutional, and autoencoder neural networks on 4 applications including simulated nonlinear data, dementia prognosis and diagnosis, and live-cell image analysis. Compared to prior techniques, ARMED models better distinguish confounded from true associations in simulations and learn more biologically
We derive a complete expression for the neutrino-mediated quantum force beyond the four-Fermi approximation within the Standard Model. Using this new result, we study the effect of atomic parity violation caused by neutrinos. We find that the neutrino effect is sizable compared to the current experimental sensitivity and can also significantly affect the value of the Weinberg angle measured in atomic systems. This offers a promising method for detecting the neutrino force in the future and facilitates the application of precision atomic physics as a probe for neutrino physics and the electroweak sector of the Standard Model.
Coupling effects among different physical fields substantially reflect the conversion of energies from one form into another. For simple physical processes, their governing or constitutive equations all satisfy the law of conservation of energy. Then, analysis is extended to coupling effects. First, it is found for the linear direct and converse piezoelectric and piezomagnetic effects, their constitutive equations guarantee that the total energy is conserved during the process of energy conversion between the elastic and electromagnetic fields; however, energies are converted via work terms, $(β_{ijk} E_i )_{,k} v_j$ and $(γ_{ijk} H_i)_{,k} v_j$, rather than via energy terms, $β_{ijk} E_i e_{jk}$ and $γ_{ijk} H_i e_{jk}$. Second, for the generalized Villari effects, the electromagnetic energy can be treated as an extra contribution to the generalized elastic energy. Third, for electrostriction and magnetostriction, it is argued both effects are induced by the Maxwell stress; moreover, their energy is purely electromagnetic and thus both have no converse effects. During these processes, energy can be converted in three different ways, i.e., via non-potential forces, via cross-depend
Memory effects can lead to history-dependent behavior of a system, and they are ubiquitous in our daily life and have broad applications. Here we explore possibilities of generating memory effects in simple isolated quantum systems. By utilizing geometrical effects from a class of lattices supporting flat-bands consisting of localized states, memory effects could be observed in ultracold atoms in optical lattices. As the optical lattice continuously transforms from a triangular lattice into a kagome lattice with a flat band, history-dependent density distributions manifest quantum memory effects even in noninteracting systems, including fermionic as well as bosonic systems in the proper ranges of temperatures. Rapid growth in ultracold technology predicts a bright future for quantum memory-effect systems, and here two prototypical applications of geometry-induced quantum memory effects are proposed: An accelerometer recording the mechanical change rate in a coupled system and a rate-controlled memvalve where the rate of ramping the lattice potential acts as a control of the remnant density in the lattice.
Algebraic effects offer a versatile framework that covers a wide variety of effects. However, the family of operations that delimit scopes are not algebraic and are usually modelled as handlers, thus preventing them from being used freely in conjunction with algebraic operations. Although proposals for scoped operations exist, they are either ad-hoc and unprincipled, or too inconvenient for practical programming. This paper provides the best of both worlds: a theoretically-founded model of scoped effects that is convenient for implementation and reasoning. Our new model is based on an adjunction between a locally finitely presentable category and a category of functorial algebras. Using comparison functors between adjunctions, we show that our new model, an existing indexed model, and a third approach that simulates scoped operations in terms of algebraic ones have equal expressivity for handling scoped operations. We consider our new model to be the sweet spot between ease of implementation and structuredness. Additionally, our approach automatically induces fusion laws of handlers of scoped effects, which are useful for reasoning and optimisation.
Mixed-effects models have emerged as the gold standard of statistical analysis in different sub-fields of linguistics (Baayen, Davidson & Bates, 2008; Johnson, 2009; Barr, et al, 2013; Gries, 2015). One problematic feature of these models is their failure to converge under maximal (or even near-maximal) random effects structures. The lack of convergence is relatively unaddressed in linguistics and when it is addressed has resulted in statistical practices (e.g. Jaeger, 2009; Gries, 2015; Bates, et al, 2015b) that are premised on the idea that non-convergence is an indication that a random effects structure is over-specified (or not parsimonious), the parsimonious convergence hypothesis (PCH). We test the PCH by running simulations in lme4 under two sets of assumptions for both a linear dependent variable and a binary dependent variable in order to assess the rate of non-convergence for both types of mixed effects models when a known maximal effect structure is used to generate the data (i.e. when non-convergence cannot be explained by random effects with zero variance). Under the PCH, lack of convergence is treated as evidence against a more maximal random effects structure, bu
This paper surveys the empirical literature of inflation targeting. The main findings from our review are the following: there is robust empirical evidence that larger and more developed countries are more likely to adopt the IT regime; the introduction of this regime is conditional on previous disinflation, greater exchange rate flexibility, central bank independence, and higher level of financial development; the empirical evidence has failed to provide convincing evidence that IT itself may serve as an effective tool for stabilizing inflation expectations and for reducing inflation persistence; the empirical research focused on advanced economies has failed to provide convincing evidence on the beneficial effects of IT on inflation performance, while there is some evidence that the gains from the IT regime may have been more prevalent in the emerging market economies; there is not convincing evidence that IT is associated with either higher output growth or lower output variability; the empirical research suggests that IT may have differential effects on exchange-rate volatility in advanced economies versus EMEs; although the empirical evidence on the impact of IT on fiscal poli
We provide a uniform treatment of electromagnetic and gravitational memory effects, based on the gravito-electromagnetic formulation of GR and a generalization of the geodesic deviation equation. This allows us to find novel results: in gauge theory, we derive relativistic corrections to the well-known kick memory observable, and a general expression for the displacement memory observable, typically overlooked in the literature. In GR, we find relativistic corrections to displacement and kick memory observables. In both theories, we find novel radial memory effects. Next, we show that electromagnetic and gravitational memory observables can be formulated in terms of certain holonomies on a holographic screen in asymptotically flat spacetimes. In gauge theory, the displacement and kick memory effects form a Hamiltonian vector field which is canonically generated by a Wilson loop. In the first order formulation of GR, we show that the holonomy naturally splits into translational and Lorentz parts. While the former encodes the leading and subleading displacement and kick memory observables, the latter reproduces the gyroscopic memory effect.
The chiral vortical effect is a chiral anomaly induced transport phenomenon characterized by an axial current in a uniformly rotating chiral fluid. It is well-understood for Weyl fermions in high energy physics, but its realization in condensed matter band structures, including those of Weyl semimetals, has been controversial. In this work, we develop the Kubo response theory for electrons in a general band structure subject to space- and time-dependent rotation or vorticity relative to the background lattice. We recover the chiral vortical effect in the static limit; in the transport or uniform limit, we discover a new effect that we dub the gyrotropic vortical effect. The latter is governed by Berry curvature of the occupied bands while the former contains an additional contribution from the magnetic moment of electrons on the Fermi surface. The two vortical effects can be understood as analogs of the well-known chiral and gyrotropic magnetic effects in chiral band structures. We address recent controversies in the field and conclude by describing device geometries that exploit Ohmic or Seebeck transport to drive the vortical effects.
The effect of the presence of two probe waveguides on the dynamics of hyper-Raman processes is studied in terms of quantum Zeno and anti-Zeno effects. Specifically, the enhancement (diminution) of the evolution of the hyper-Raman processes due to interaction with the probe waveguides via evanescent waves is viewed as quantum Zeno (anti-Zeno) effect. We considered the two probe waveguides interacting with only one of the optical modes at a time. For instance, as a specific scenario, it is considered that the two non-degenerate pump modes interact with each probe waveguide linearly while Stokes and anti-Stokes modes do not interact with the probes. Similarly, in another scenario, we assumed both the probe waveguides interact with Stokes (anti-Stokes) mode simultaneously. The present results show that quantum Zeno (anti-Zeno) effect is associated with phase-matching (mismatching). However, we did not find any relation between the presence of the quantum Zeno effect and antibunching in the bosonic modes present in the hyper-Raman processes.
Domain walls arise in theories where there is spontaneous symmetry breaking of a discrete symmetry such as $\mathbb{Z}_{N}$ and are a feature of many BSM models. In this work we consider the possibility of detecting domain walls through their optical effects and specify three different methods of coupling domain walls to the photon. We consider the effects of these couplings in the context of gravitational wave detectors, such as LIGO, and examine the sensitivity of these experiments to domain wall effects. In cases where gravitational wave detectors are not sensitive we examine our results in the context of axion experiments and show how effects of passing domain walls can be detected at interferometers searching for an axion signal.
We present a fully relativistic calculation of the observed galaxy number counts in the linear regime. We show that besides the density fluctuations and redshift-space distortions, various relativistic effects contribute to observations at large scales. These effects all have the same physical origin: they result from the fact that our coordinate system, namely the galaxy redshift and the incoming photons' direction, is distorted by inhomogeneities in our universe. We then discuss the impact of the relativistic effects on the angular power spectrum and on the two-point correlation function in configuration space. We show that the latter is very well adapted to isolate the relativistic effects since it naturally makes use of the symmetries of the different contributions. In particular, we discuss how the Doppler effect and the gravitational redshift distortions can be isolated by looking for a dipole in the cross-correlation function between a bright and a faint population of galaxies.
Combining patient-level data from clinical trials can connect rare phenomena with clinical endpoints, but statistical techniques applied to a single trial may become problematical when trials are pooled. Estimating the hazard of a binary variable unevenly distributed across trials showcases a common pooled database issue. We studied how an unevenly distributed binary variable can compromise the integrity of fixed and random effects Cox proportional hazards models. We compared fixed effect and random effects Cox proportional hazards models on a set of simulated datasets inspired by a 17-trial pooled database of patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-STEMI undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. An unevenly distributed covariate can bias hazard ratio estimates, inflate standard errors, raise type I error, and reduce power. While uneveness causes problems for all Cox proportional hazards models, random effects suffer least. Compared to fixed effect models, random effects suffer lower bias and trade inflated type I errors for improved power. Contrasting hazard rates between trials prevent accurate estimates from both fixed and random
Long-range beam-beam effects occurred in the Tevatron at all stages (injection, ramp, squeeze, and collisions) and affected both proton and antiproton beams. They resulted in beam losses and emittance blow-ups, which occurred in remarkable bunch-to-bunch dependent patterns. On the way to record-high luminosities of the collider, many issues related to the long-range beam-beam interactions have been addressed. Below we present a short overview of the long-range beam-beam effects in the Tevatron. (For a detailed discussion on the beam-beam effects in the Tevatron please see reviews in Refs. [1-3] and references therein).
We unveil a quantum Pontus-Mpemba effect enabled by the Liouvillian skin effect in a dissipative tight-binding chain with asymmetric incoherent hopping and coherent boundary coupling. The skin effect, induced by non-reciprocal dissipation, localizes relaxation modes near the system boundaries and gives rise to non-orthogonal spectral geometry. While such non-normality is often linked to slow relaxation, we show that it can instead accelerate relaxation through a two-step protocol - realizing a quantum Pontus-Mpemba effect. Specifically, we consider a one-dimensional open chain with coherent hopping $J$, asymmetric incoherent hoppings $J_{\rm R} eq J_{\rm L}$, and a controllable end-to-end coupling $ε$. For $ε=0$, the system exhibits the Liouvillian skin effect, with left and right eigenmodes localized at opposite edges. We compare two relaxation protocols toward the same stationary state: (i) a direct relaxation with $ε=0$, and (ii) a two-step (Pontus) protocol where a brief coherent evolution transfers the excitation across the lattice before relaxation. Although both share the same asymptotic decay rate, the two-step protocol relaxes significantly faster due to its reduced overl