搜索结果：Behavioural processes

Bisimulation is a concept that captures behavioural equivalence of states in a variety of types of transition systems. It has been widely studied in discrete-time settings where a key notion is the bisimulation metric which quantifies "how similar two states are". In [ 11], we generalized the concept of bisimulation metric in order to metrize the behaviour of continuous-time Markov processes. Similarly to the discrete-time case, we constructed a pseudometric following two iterative approaches - through a functional and through a real-valued logic, and showed that the outcomes coincide: the pseudometric obtained from the logic is a specific fixpoint of the functional which yields our first pseudometric. However, different from the discrete-time setting, in which the process has a step-by-step dynamics, the behavioural pseudometric we constructed applies to Markov processes that evolve continuously through time, such as diffusions and jump diffusions. While our treatment of the pseudometric in [11] relied on the time-indexed Markov kernels, in [ 8 , 9, 10 ], we showed the importance of trajectories in the consideration of behavioural equivalences for true continuous-time Markov proce

In this work, we generalize the concept of bisimulation metric in order to metrize the behaviour of continuous-time processes. Similarly to what is done for discrete-time systems, we follow two approaches and show that they coincide: as a fixpoint of a functional and through a real-valued logic. The whole discrete-time approach relies entirely on the step-based dynamics: the process jumps from state to state. We define a behavioural pseudometric for processes that evolve continuously through time, such as Brownian motion or involve jumps or both.

Residential short-term load forecasting (STLF) is challenging because household demand is heterogeneous, temporally variable, and shaped by diverse behavioural routines. This work investigates whether inferred behavioural structure can be embedded within the forecasting mechanism of a Neural Process-based probabilistic model, rather than used only as an external grouping signal, for context-conditioned residential STLF. We propose a behaviour-conditioned Attentive Neural Process framework that treats each load profile as a forecasting task. Behavioural structure is represented by a discrete latent variable inferred from the available context and used for behaviour-conditioned decoder conditioning, while a continuous latent variable captures shared functional uncertainty across heterogeneous profiles. To enable conditioning without ground-truth behavioural labels, clustering-derived information provides weak supervision during training, whereas test-time conditioning relies only on context-inferred class distributions. Experiments on the Smart Grid, Smart City (SGSC) dataset use user-disjoint train/validation/test splits, variable context lengths, and multi-step forecast horizons, w

Behavioural metrics have been shown to be an effective mechanism for constructing representations in reinforcement learning. We present a novel perspective on behavioural metrics for Markov decision processes via the use of positive definite kernels. We leverage this new perspective to define a new metric that is provably equivalent to the recently introduced MICo distance (Castro et al., 2021). The kernel perspective further enables us to provide new theoretical results, which has so far eluded prior work. These include bounding value function differences by means of our metric, and the demonstration that our metric can be provably embedded into a finite-dimensional Euclidean space with low distortion error. These are two crucial properties when using behavioural metrics for reinforcement learning representations. We complement our theory with strong empirical results that demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods in practice.

We formally introduce and study locally-balanced Markov jump processes (LBMJPs) defined on a general state space. These continuous-time stochastic processes with a user-specified limiting distribution are designed for sampling in settings involving discrete parameters and/or non-smooth distributions, addressing limitations of other processes such as the overdamped Langevin diffusion. The paper establishes the well-posedness, non-explosivity, and ergodicity of LBMJPs under mild conditions. We further explore regularity properties such as the Feller property and characterise the weak generator of the process. We then derive conditions for exponential ergodicity via spectral gaps and establish comparison theorems for different balancing functions. In particular we show an equivalence between the spectral gaps of Metropolis--Hastings algorithms and LBMJPs with bounded balancing function, but show that LBMJPs can exhibit uniform ergodicity on unbounded state spaces when the balancing function is unbounded, even when the limiting distribution is not sub-Gaussian. We also establish a diffusion limit for an LBMJP in the small jump limit, and discuss applications to Monte Carlo sampling and

We present a simple construction method for Feller processes and a framework for the generation of sample paths of Feller processes. The construction is based on state space dependent mixing of Lévy processes. Brownian Motion is one of the most frequently used continuous time Markov processes in applications. In recent years also Lévy processes, of which Brownian Motion is a special case, have become increasingly popular. Lévy processes are spatially homogeneous, but empirical data often suggest the use of spatially inhomogeneous processes. Thus it seems necessary to go to the next level of generalization: Feller processes. These include Lévy processes and in particular Brownian motion as special cases but allow spatial inhomogeneities. Many properties of Feller processes are known, but proving the very existence is, in general, very technical. Moreover, an applicable framework for the generation of sample paths of a Feller process was missing. We explain, with practitioners in mind, how to overcome both of these obstacles. In particular our simulation technique allows to apply Monte Carlo methods to Feller processes.

This chapter examines the policy implications of behavioural sciences insights for the regulation of privacy on the Internet, by focusing in particular on behavioural targeting. This marketing technique involves tracking people's online behaviour to use the collected information to show people individually targeted advertisements. Enforcing data protection law may not be enough to protect privacy in this area. I argue that, if society is better off when certain behavioural targeting practices do not happen, policymakers should consider banning them.

Arcade processes are a class of continuous stochastic processes that interpolate in a strong sense, i.e., omega by omega, between zeros at fixed pre-specified times. Their additive randomisation allows one to match any finite sequence of target random variables, indexed by the given fixed dates, on the whole probability space. The randomised arcade processes (RAPs) can thus be interpreted as a generalisation of anticipative stochastic bridges. The filtrations generated by these processes are utilised to construct a class of martingales that interpolate between the given target random variables. These so-called filtered arcade martingales (FAMs) are almost-sure solutions to the martingale interpolation problem and reveal an underlying stochastic filtering structure. In the special case of conditionally Markov randomised arcade processes, the dynamics of FAMs are informed by Bayesian updating. The same ideas are applied to filtered arcade reverse-martingales, which are constructed in a similar fashion, using reverse-filtrations of RAPs, instead. Several explicit examples for RAPs and FAMs are provided and simulated. This paper concludes with an outlook on potential connections betwee

The European Union Charter of Fundamental Rights only allows personal data processing if a data controller has a legal basis for the processing. This paper argues that in most circumstances the only available legal basis for the processing of personal data for behavioural targeting is the data subject's unambiguous consent. Furthermore, the paper argues that the cookie consent requirement from the ePrivacy Directive does not provide a legal basis for the processing of personal data. Therefore: even if companies could use an opt-out system to comply with the e-Privacy Directive's consent requirement for using a tracking cookie, they would generally have to obtain the data subject's unambiguous consent if they process personal data for behavioural targeting.

Some problems in the theory and applications of stochastic processes can be reduced to solving integral equations. While explicit solutions for these equations are often elusive, valuable insights can be gained through their asymptotic analysis with respect to relevant parameters. This paper is a brief survey of some recent progress in the study of such equations related to processes with fractional covariance structure.

This paper establishes the precise small-time asymptotic behavior of the spectral heat content for isotropic Lévy processes on bounded $C^{1,1}$ open sets of $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ with $d\ge 2$, where the underlying characteristic exponents are regularly varying at infinity with index $α\in (1,2]$, including the case $α=2$. Moreover, this asymptotic behavior is shown to be stable under an integrable perturbation of its Lévy measure. These results cover a wide class of isotropic Lévy processes, including Brownian motions, stable processes, and jump diffusions, and the proofs provide a unified approach to the asymptotic behavior of the spectral heat content for all of these processes.

We prove that the martingale problem is well posed for pure-jump Lévy-type operators of the form $$ (\mathcal Lf)(x) = \int_{\mathbb R^d \setminus \{0\}} \left(f(x+h)-f(x) - ( abla f(x) \cdot h)1_{\|h\| < 1}\right)K(x,h) dh, $$ where $K(x,\cdot)$ is a jump kernel of the form $K(x,h) \sim \frac{l(\|h\|)}{\|h\|^d}$ for each $x \in \mathbb R^d,\|h\|<1$, and $l$ is a positive function that is slowly varying at $0$, under suitable assumptions on $K$. This includes jump kernels such as those of $α$-geometric stable processes, $α\in (0,2]$.

We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with complex dynamics. These processes are defined implicitly via their intensity and are endowed with a state process that interacts with past-dependent events. The key example we entertain is an extension of a Hawkes process, a state-dependent Hawkes process interacting with its state process. We show the existence and uniqueness of hybrid marked point processes under general assumptions, extending the results of Massoulié (1998) on interacting point processes.

In this paper, we study the memory properties of transformations of linear processes. Dittmann and Granger (2002) studied the polynomial transformations of Gaussian FARIMA(0,d,0) processes by applying the orthonormality of the Hermite polynomials under the measure for the standard normal distribution. Nevertheless, the orthogonality does not hold for transformations of non-Gaussian linear processes. Instead, we use the decomposition developed by Ho and Hsing (1996, 1997) to study the memory properties of nonlinear transformations of linear processes, which include the FARIMA(p,d,q) processes, and obtain consistent results as in the Gaussian case. In particular, for stationary processes, the transformations of short-memory time series still have short-memory and the transformation of long-memory time series may have different weaker memory parameters which depend on the power rank of the transformation. On the other hand, the memory properties of transformations of non-stationary time series may not depend on the power ranks of the transformations. This study has application in econometrics and financial data analysis when the time series observations have non-Gaussian heavy tails.

We study the optimal control of path-dependent piecewise deterministic processes. An appropriate dynamic programming principle is established. We prove that the associated value function is the unique minimax solution of the corresponding non-local path-dependent Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. This is the first well-posedness result for nonsmooth solutions of fully nonlinear non-local path-dependent partial differential equations.

We consider random walks associated with conductances on Delaunay triangulations, Gabriel graphs and skeletons of Voronoi tilings which are generated by point processes in $\mathbb{R}^d$. Under suitable assumptions on point processes and conductances, we show that, for almost any realization of the point process, these random walks are recurrent if $d=2$ and transient if $d\geq 3$. These results hold for a large variety of point processes including Poisson point processes, Mat{é}rn cluster and Mat{é}rn hardcore processes which have clustering or repulsive properties. In order to prove them, we state general criteria for recurrence or almost sure transience which apply to random graphs embedded in $\mathbb{R}^d$.

The emergence of a variety of Machine Learning (ML) approaches for travel mode choice prediction poses an interesting question to transport modellers: which models should be used for which applications? The answer to this question goes beyond simple predictive performance, and is instead a balance of many factors, including behavioural interpretability and explainability, computational complexity, and data efficiency. There is a growing body of research which attempts to compare the predictive performance of different ML classifiers with classical random utility models. However, existing studies typically analyse only the disaggregate predictive performance, ignoring other aspects affecting model choice. Furthermore, many studies are affected by technical limitations, such as the use of inappropriate validation schemes, incorrect sampling for hierarchical data, lack of external validation, and the exclusive use of discrete metrics. We address these limitations by conducting a systematic comparison of different modelling approaches, across multiple modelling problems, in terms of the key factors likely to affect model choice (out-of-sample predictive performance, accuracy of predict

Superpositions of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type (supOU) processes provide a rich class of stationary stochastic processes for which the marginal distribution and the dependence structure may be modeled independently. We show that they can also display intermittency, a phenomenon affecting the rate of growth of moments. To do so, we investigate the limiting behavior of integrated supOU processes with finite variance. After suitable normalization four different limiting processes may arise depending on the decay of the correlation function and on the characteristic triplet of the marginal distribution. To show that supOU processes may exhibit intermittency, we establish the rate of growth of moments for each of the four limiting scenarios. The rate change indicates that there is intermittency, which is expressed here as a change-point in the asymptotic behavior of the absolute moments.

Chi-square processes with trend appear naturally as limiting processes in various statistical models. In this paper we are concerned with the exact tail asymptotics of the supremum taken over (0; 1) of a class of locally stationary chi-square processes with particular admissible trends. An important tool for establishing our results is a weak version of Slepian's lemma for chi-square processes. Some special cases including squared Brownian bridge and Bessel process are discussed.