Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Early detection is critical to recover patient outcomes and decrease healthcare costs. In recent years, machine learning (ML) advancements have shown significant potential in enhancing the accuracy of CAD diagnosis. This study investigates the application of ML algorithms to improve the detection of CAD by analyzing patient data, including clinical features, imaging, and biomarker profiles. Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and a hybrid of Bi-LSTM+GRU were trained on large datasets to predict the presence of CAD. Results demonstrated that these ML models outperformed traditional diagnostic methods in sensitivity and specificity, offering a robust tool for clinicians to make more informed decisions. The experimental results show that the hybrid model achieved an accuracy of 97.07%. By integrating advanced data preprocessing techniques and feature selection, this study ensures optimal learning and model performance, setting a benchmark for the application of ML in CAD diagnosis. The integration of ML into CAD detection presents a promising avenue for
In this paper, we introduce a new model of parental decision-making concerning vaccines against a childhood disease that spreads over a contact network. We consider a bilayer network composed of two overlapping networks which are either Erdős-Rényi (random) networks or Barabási-Albert networks. The new model uses a Bayesian aggregation rule for observational social learning, occurring over a social network, of which other decision models, like voting and DeGroot models, are special cases. Using our new model, we show how some levels of social learning about vaccination preferences can lead to the convergence of opinions and affect levels of vaccine uptake and so disease spread. In addition, we study the effect of the existence of two cultures of social learning on the establishment of social norms of vaccination and levels of vaccine uptake. In all cases, the mutual influence between the dynamics of observational social learning and disease spread is dependent on the network's topology and vaccine safety and availability.
Simulating prospective magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans from a given individual brain image is challenging, as it requires accounting for canonical changes in aging and/or disease progression while also considering the individual brain's current status and unique characteristics. While current deep generative models can produce high-resolution anatomically accurate templates for population-wide studies, their ability to predict future aging trajectories for individuals remains limited, particularly in capturing subject-specific neuroanatomical variations over time. In this study, we introduce Individualized Brain Synthesis (InBrainSyn), a framework for synthesizing high-resolution subject-specific longitudinal MRI scans that simulate neurodegeneration in both Alzheimer's disease (AD) and normal aging. InBrainSyn uses a parallel transport algorithm to adapt the population-level aging trajectories learned by a generative deep template network, enabling individualized aging synthesis. As InBrainSyn uses diffeomorphic transformations to simulate aging, the synthesized images are topologically consistent with the original anatomy by design. We evaluated InBrainSyn both quantitativ
Effective public health decisions require early reliable inference of infectious disease properties. In this paper we assess the ability to infer infectious disease attributes from population-level stochastic epidemic trajectories. In particular, we construct stochastic Kermack-McKendrick model trajectories, sample them with and without observational error, and evaluate inversions for the population mean infectiousness as a function of time since infection, the infection duration distribution, and its complementary cumulative distribution, the infection survival distribution. Based on an integro-differential equation formulation we employ a natural regression approach to fit the corresponding integral kernels and show that these disease attributes are recoverable from both multi-trajectory inversions and regularized single trajectory inversions. Moreover, we demonstrate that the infection duration distribution (or alternatively the infection survival distribution) and population mean infectiousness kernel recovered can be used to solve for the individual infectiousness profile, the infectiousness of an individual over the duration of their infection, assuming that individual infect
We introduce a system of differential equations to assess the impact of (self-)quarantine of symptomatic infectious individuals on disease dynamics. To this end we depart from using the classic bilinear infection process, but remain still within the framework of the mass-action assumption. From the mathematical point of view our model is interesting due to the lack of continuous differentiability at disease free steady states, which implies also that the basic reproductive number cannot be computed following established approaches for certain parameter values. However, we parametrise our mathematical model using published values from the COVID-19 literature, and analyse the model simulations. We also contrast model simulations against publicly available COVID-19 test data focusing on the first wave of the pandemic during March - July 2020 in the UK. Our simulations indicate that actual peak case numbers might have been as much as 200 times higher than the reported positive test cases during the first wave in the UK. We find that very strong adherence to self-quarantine rules yields (only) a reduction of 22$\%$ of peak numbers and delays the onset of the peak by approximately 30-35
The ability to predict the future trajectory of a patient is a key step toward the development of therapeutics for complex diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, most machine learning approaches developed for prediction of disease progression are either single-task or single-modality models, which can not be directly adopted to our setting involving multi-task learning with high dimensional images. Moreover, most of those approaches are trained on a single dataset (i.e. cohort), which can not be generalized to other cohorts. We propose a novel multimodal multi-task deep learning model to predict AD progression by analyzing longitudinal clinical and neuroimaging data from multiple cohorts. Our proposed model integrates high dimensional MRI features from a 3D convolutional neural network with other data modalities, including clinical and demographic information, to predict the future trajectory of patients. Our model employs an adversarial loss to alleviate the study-specific imaging bias, in particular the inter-study domain shifts. In addition, a Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) optimization technique is applied to further improve model generalization. The proposed m
Estimating brain age (BA) from T1-weighted magnetic resonance images (MRIs) provides a powerful framework for quantifying anatomical brain aging. Whereas global BA (GBA) summarizes overall brain health, local BA (LBA) provides cortically specific patterns of aging at the subject level. Although previous studies have examined anatomical contributors to GBA, to our knowledge, no framework has been established to estimate LBA using cortical morphology. To address this gap, we introduce a graph neural network (GNN) that uses morphometric features$\unicode{x2013}$cortical thickness, surface area, curvature, gray/white matter intensity ratio (GWR), sulcal depth$\unicode{x2013}$to estimate LBA across the cortical surface at high spatial resolution (mean inter-vertex distance = 1.37 mm). Trained on cortical surface meshes extracted from the MRIs of cognitively normal (CN) adults (N = 14,423), our model achieves lower mean absolute error (MAE) than the existing state-of-the-art while identifying more biologically plausible patterns of aging in Alzheimer's disease (AD) on the ADNI dataset. Association cortices emerge as primary sites of morphometric aging in CNs, whereas mild cognitive impai
In this work, we present an approach called Disease Informed Neural Networks (DINNs) that can be employed to effectively predict the spread of infectious diseases. This approach builds on a successful physics informed neural network approaches that have been applied to a variety of applications that can be modeled by linear and non-linear ordinary and partial differential equations. Specifically, we build on the application of PINNs to SIR compartmental models and expand it a scaffolded family of mathematical models describing various infectious diseases. We show how the neural networks are capable of learning how diseases spread, forecasting their progression, and finding their unique parameters (e.g. death rate). To demonstrate the robustness and efficacy of DINNs, we apply the approach to eleven highly infectious diseases that have been modeled in increasing levels of complexity. Our computational experiments suggest that DINNs is a reliable candidate for effectively learn about the dynamics of spread and forecast its progression into the future from available real-world data.
The tomato is one of the most important fruits on earth. It plays an important and useful role in the agricultural production of any country. This research propose a novel smart technique for early detection of late blight diseases in tomatoes. This work improve the dataset with an increase in images from the field (the Plant Village dataset) and proposed a hybrid algorithm composed of support vector machines (SVM) and histogram-oriented gradients (HOG) for real-time detection of late blight tomato disease. To propose a HOG-based SVM model for early detection of late blight tomato leaf disease. To check the performance of the proposed model in terms of MSE, accuracy, precision, and recall as compared to Decision Tree and KNN. The integration of advanced technology in agriculture has the potential to revolutionize the industry, making it more efficient, sustainable, and profitable. This research work on the early detection of tomato diseases contributes to the growing importance of smart farming, the need for climate-smart agriculture, the rising need to more efficiently utilize natural resources, and the demand for higher crop yields. The proposed hybrid algorithm of SVM and HOG ha
A better characterization of the early growth dynamics of an epidemic is needed to dissect the important drivers of disease transmission. We introduce a 2-parameter generalized-growth model to characterize the ascending phase of an outbreak and capture epidemic profiles ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth. We test the model against empirical outbreak data representing a variety of viral pathogens and provide simulations highlighting the importance of sub-exponential growth for forecasting purposes. We applied the generalized-growth model to 20 infectious disease outbreaks representing a range of transmission routes. We uncovered epidemic profiles ranging from very slow growth (p=0.14 for the Ebola outbreak in Bomi, Liberia (2014)) to near exponential (p>0.9 for the smallpox outbreak in Khulna (1972), and the 1918 pandemic influenza in San Francisco). The foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Uruguay displayed a profile of slower growth while the growth pattern of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Japan was approximately linear. The West African Ebola epidemic provided a unique opportunity to explore how growth profiles vary by geography; analysis of the largest district-level
Modelling the progression of Degenerative Diseases (DD) is essential for detection, prevention, and treatment, yet it remains challenging due to the heterogeneity in disease trajectories among individuals. Factors such as demographics, genetic conditions, and lifestyle contribute to diverse phenotypical manifestations, necessitating patient stratification based on these variations. Recent methods like Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) have advanced unsupervised stratification of disease trajectories, but they face potential limitations in robustness, interpretability, and temporal granularity. To address these challenges, we introduce Disease Progression Modelling and Stratification (DP-MoSt), a novel probabilistic method that optimises clusters of continuous trajectories over a long-term disease time-axis while estimating the confidence of trajectory sub-types for each biomarker. We validate DP-MoSt using both synthetic and real-world data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). Our results demonstrate that DP-MoSt effectively identifies both sub-trajectories and subpopulations, and is a promising alternative to current state-of-the-art models.
INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is genetically complex, complicating robust classification from genomic data. METHODS: We developed a transformer-based ensemble model (TrUE-Net) using Monte Carlo Dropout for uncertainty estimation in AD classification from whole-genome sequencing (WGS). We combined a transformer that preserves single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) sequence structure with a concurrent random forest using flattened genotypes. An uncertainty threshold separated samples into an uncertain (high-variance) group and a more certain (low-variance) group. RESULTS: We analyzed 1050 individuals, holding out half for testing. Overall accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) were 0.6514 and 0.6636, respectively. Excluding the uncertain group improved accuracy from 0.6263 to 0.7287 (10.24% increase) and F1 from 0.5843 to 0.8205 (23.62% increase). DISCUSSION: Monte Carlo Dropout-driven uncertainty helps identify ambiguous cases that may require further clinical evaluation, thus improving reliability in AD genomic classification.
Childhood socioeconomic disadvantage is a well established determinant of health in later life. Less is known about how early-life deprivation unfolds when individuals experience major institutional transformation and migration in adulthood. Cohorts socialized under Soviet institutions provide a useful setting to examine life-course divergence under systemic change. This study uses harmonized data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) on older adults residing in Estonia, Latvia, and Israel to examine the association between retrospectively reported childhood deprivation and multiple health outcomes in later life, including poor self-rated health, chronic disease burden, functional limitation, depression, and a composite multifrailty indicator. Logistic regression models and predicted probabilities assess whether childhood deprivation predicts late-life health across different adult institutional contexts and whether associations vary by linguistic affiliation. Higher levels of childhood deprivation are consistently associated with poorer health outcomes across all three countries. Individuals in the highest deprivation quintile show substantially higher
We seek to identify genes involved in Parkinson's Disease (PD) by combining information across different experiment types. Each experiment, taken individually, may contain too little information to distinguish some important genes from incidental ones. However, when experiments are combined using the proposed statistical framework, additional power emerges. The fundamental building block of the family of statistical models that we propose is a hierarchical three-group mixture of distributions. Each gene is modeled probabilistically as belonging to either a null group that is unassociated with PD, a deleterious group, or a beneficial group. This three-group formalism has two key features. By apportioning prior probability of group assignments with a Dirichlet distribution, the resultant posterior group probabilities automatically account for the multiplicity inherent in analyzing many genes simultaneously. By building models for experimental outcomes conditionally on the group labels, any number of data modalities may be combined in a single coherent probability model, allowing information sharing across experiment types. These two features result in parsimonious inference with few
Understanding the community conditions that best support universal access and improved childhood outcomes allows ultimately to improve decision-making in the areas of planning and investment across the early stages of childhood development. Here we describe two different data-driven approaches to visualizing the lived experiences of children throughout the City of Surrey, combining data derived from both public and private sources. In one approach, we find specifically that the Early Development Instrument measuring childhood vulnerabilities across varying domains can be used to cluster neighborhoods, and that census variables can help explain similarities between neighborhoods within these clusters. In our second approach, we use program registration data from the City of Surrey's Community and Recreation Services Division. We also find a critical age of entry and exit for each program related to early childhood development and beyond, and find that certain neighborhoods and recreational programs have larger retention rates than others. This report details the journey of using data to tell the story of these neighborhoods, and provides a lens to which community initiatives can be
Disease Intelligence (DI) is based on the acquisition and aggregation of fragmented knowledge of diseases at multiple sources all over the world to provide valuable information to doctors, researchers and information seeking community. Some diseases have their own characteristics changed rapidly at different places of the world and are reported on documents as unrelated and heterogeneous information which may be going unnoticed and may not be quickly available. This research presents an Ontology based theoretical framework in the context of medical intelligence and country/region. Ontology is designed for storing information about rapidly spreading and changing diseases with incorporating existing disease taxonomies to genetic information of both humans and infectious organisms. It further maps disease symptoms to diseases and drug effects to disease symptoms. The machine understandable disease ontology represented as a website thus allows the drug effects to be evaluated on disease symptoms and exposes genetic involvements in the human diseases. Infectious agents which have no known place in an existing classification but have data on genetics would still be identified as organism
This paper represents a groundbreaking advancement in Parkinson disease (PD) research by employing a novel machine learning framework to categorize PD into distinct subtypes and predict its progression. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset encompassing both clinical and neurological parameters, the research applies advanced supervised and unsupervised learning techniques. This innovative approach enables the identification of subtle, yet critical, patterns in PD manifestation, which traditional methodologies often miss. Significantly, this research offers a path toward personalized treatment strategies, marking a major stride in the precision medicine domain and showcasing the transformative potential of integrating machine learning into medical research.
Progressive cognitive decline spanning across decades is characteristic of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Various predictive models have been designed to realize its early onset and study the long-term trajectories of cognitive test scores across populations of interest. Research efforts have been geared towards superimposing patients' cognitive test scores with the long-term trajectory denoting gradual cognitive decline, while considering the heterogeneity of AD. Multiple trajectories representing cognitive assessment for the long-term have been developed based on various parameters, highlighting the importance of classifying several groups based on disease progression patterns. In this study, a novel method capable of self-organized prediction, classification, and the overlay of long-term cognitive trajectories based on short-term individual data was developed, based on statistical and differential equation modeling. We validated the predictive accuracy of the proposed method for the long-term trajectory of cognitive test score results on two cohorts: the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study and the Japanese ADNI study. We also presented two practical illustrations
The article examines the theoretical, methodological, and technical foundations of research on audiovisual corpora within the field of digital humanities. It outlines the main transversal issues underlying the processes of constructing, exploiting, and interpreting such corpora, which are conceived as specific forms of textual data in the broad sense - that is, as sets of semiotic traces (written, visual, sound, or multimodal) that make it possible to document, analyze, and transmit domains of knowledge. The analysis is organized around five complementary themes. The first concerns the status and structure of textual data lato sensu: any data, regardless of its medium, participates in a meaningful representation of a domain and therefore requires a unified theoretical and methodological framework based on a transdisciplinary semiotic approach. The second theme addresses the documentary value of data and corpora, understood as the relevance of materials for documenting a research object in relation to the goals and perspectives of the projects in which they are used. This value depends both on provenance and reasoned selection, and on the pragmatic context of their use. The third th
Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a prominent, worldwide, age-related neurodegenerative disease that currently has no systemic treatment. Strong evidence suggests that permeable amyloid-beta peptide (Abeta) oligomers, astrogliosis and reactive astrocytosis cause neuronal damage in AD. A large amount of Abeta is secreted by astrocytes, which contributes to the total Abeta deposition in the brain. This suggests that astrocytes may also play a role in AD, leading to increased attention to their dynamics and associated mechanisms. Therefore, in the present study, we developed and evaluated novel stochastic models for Abeta growth using ADNI data to predict the effect of astrocytes on AD progression in a clinical trial. In the AD case, accurate prediction is required for a successful clinical treatment plan. Given that AD studies are observational in nature and involve routine patient visits, stochastic models provide a suitable framework for modelling AD. Using the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach, the AD etiology may be modelled as a multi-state disease process. As a result, we use this approach to examine the weak and strong influence of astrocytes at multiple disease progre