The prospect of artificial superintelligence -- AI agents that can generally outperform humans in cognitive tasks and economically valuable activities -- will transform the legal order as we know it. Operating autonomously or under only limited human oversight, AI agents will assume a growing range of roles in the legal system. First, in making consequential decisions and taking real-world actions, AI agents will become de facto subjects of law. Second, to cooperate and compete with other actors (human or non-human), AI agents will harness conventional legal instruments and institutions such as contracts and courts, becoming consumers of law. Third, to the extent AI agents perform the functions of writing, interpreting, and administering law, they will become producers and enforcers of law. These developments, whenever they ultimately occur, will call into question fundamental assumptions in legal theory and doctrine, especially to the extent they ground the legitimacy of legal institutions in their human origins. Attempts to align AI agents with extant human law will also face new challenges as AI agents will not only be a primary target of law, but a core user of law and contribu
Safety guarantees are a prerequisite to the deployment of reinforcement learning (RL) agents in safety-critical tasks. Often, deployment environments exhibit non-stationary dynamics or are subject to changing performance goals, requiring updates to the learned policy. This leads to a fundamental challenge: how to update an RL policy while preserving its safety properties on previously encountered tasks? The majority of current approaches either do not provide formal guarantees or verify policy safety only a posteriori. We propose a novel a priori approach to safe policy updates in continual RL by introducing the Rashomon set: a region in policy parameter space certified to meet safety constraints within the demonstration data distribution. We then show that one can provide formal, provable guarantees for arbitrary RL algorithms used to update a policy by projecting their updates onto the Rashomon set. Empirically, we validate this approach across grid-world navigation environments (Frozen Lake and Poisoned Apple) where we guarantee an a priori provably deterministic safety on the source task during downstream adaptation. In contrast, we observe that regularisation-based baselines e
The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into telecommunications infrastructure introduces novel risks, such as algorithmic bias and unpredictable system behavior, that fall outside the scope of traditional cybersecurity and data protection frameworks. This paper introduces a precise definition and a detailed typology of telecommunications AI incidents, establishing them as a distinct category of risk that extends beyond conventional cybersecurity and data protection breaches. It argues for their recognition as a distinct regulatory concern. Using India as a case study for jurisdictions that lack a horizontal AI law, the paper analyzes the country's key digital regulations. The analysis reveals that India's existing legal instruments, including the Telecommunications Act, 2023, the CERT-In Rules, and the Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023, focus on cybersecurity and data breaches, creating a significant regulatory gap for AI-specific operational incidents, such as performance degradation and algorithmic bias. The paper also examines structural barriers to disclosure and the limitations of existing AI incident repositories. Based on these findings, the paper proposes
This review essay examines Mark Findlay's Governing the Metaverse: Law, Order and Freedom in Digital Space. Findlay offers an ambitious and timely account of the metaverse as a social and imaginative space that should be governed for freedom, personhood, community, and resistance to enclosure. The essay argues, however, that the book's two central categories, "the metaverse" and "new law," remain insufficiently theorised. The book relies on a realspace/virtual distinction that its own analysis repeatedly destabilises. Once digital environments are understood as dependent on physical infrastructures, platform architectures, AI systems, data pipelines, and external legal institutions, and as capable of generating real-world harms for individuals and society, the governance problem is no longer how to devise a separate law for a separate virtual realm. It is how to govern a hybrid socio-technical order in which law, code, platforms, and public oversight recursively interact. The essay further argues that Findlay's account of "new law" does not adequately theorise how normative authority operates across a recursively layered governance architecture in which code, platform rules, and le
Algorithmic decision-making and similar types of artificial intelligence (AI) may lead to improvements in all sectors of society, but can also have discriminatory effects. While current non-discrimination law offers people some protection, algorithmic decision-making presents the law with several challenges. For instance, algorithms can generate new categories of people based on seemingly innocuous characteristics, such as web browser preference or apartment number, or more complicated categories combining many data points. Such new types of differentiation could evade non-discrimination law, as browser type and house number are not protected characteristics, but such differentiation could still be unfair, for instance if it reinforces social inequality. This paper explores which system of non-discrimination law can best be applied to algorithmic decision-making, considering that algorithms can differentiate on the basis of characteristics that do not correlate with protected grounds of discrimination such as ethnicity or gender. The paper analyses the current loopholes in the protection offered by non-discrimination law and explores the best way for lawmakers to approach algorithm
Computer science research sometimes brushes with the law, from red-team exercises that probe the boundaries of authentication mechanisms, to AI research processing copyrighted material, to platform research measuring the behavior of algorithms and users. U.S.-based computer security research is no stranger to the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA) and the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) in a relationship that is still evolving through case law, research practices, changing policies, and legislation. Amid the landscape computer scientists, lawyers, and policymakers have learned to navigate, anti-fraud laws are a surprisingly under-examined challenge for computer science research. Fraud brings separate issues that are not addressed by the methods for navigating CFAA, DMCA, and Terms of Service that are more familiar in the computer security literature. Although anti-fraud laws have been discussed to a limited extent in older research on phishing attacks, modern computer science researchers are left with little guidance when it comes to navigating issues of deception outside the context of pure laboratory research. In this paper, we analyze and taxonomize the anti-fraud and d
The central challenges in missing data models concern the identifiability of two distributions: the target law and the full law. The target law refers to the joint distribution of the data variables, whereas the full law refers to the joint distribution of the data variables and their corresponding response indicators. However, the relationship between the identifiability of these two distributions and the feasibility of multiple imputation has not been clearly established. We present a procedure where the choice of the imputation method is guided by identifiability considerations. We show that imputations can be drawn from the correct conditional distributions for all possible missing data patterns if and only if the full law is identifiable. This result implies that standard multiple imputation methods -- which keep observed values unchanged and replace missing values with imputed values -- are invalid when the target law is identifiable but the full law is not. We demonstrate that alternative imputation strategies can sometimes enable the estimation of the target law in such cases. Specifically, we introduce factorizable imputation where certain observed values are also imputed
This paper proposes Bayesian Adaptive Trials (BAT) as both an efficient method to conduct trials and a unifying framework for evaluation social policy interventions, addressing limitations inherent in traditional methods such as Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT). Recognizing the crucial need for evidence-based approaches in public policy, the proposal aims to lower barriers to the adoption of evidence-based methods and align evaluation processes more closely with the dynamic nature of policy cycles. BATs, grounded in decision theory, offer a dynamic, ``learning as we go'' approach, enabling the integration of diverse information types and facilitating a continuous, iterative process of policy evaluation. BATs' adaptive nature is particularly advantageous in policy settings, allowing for more timely and context-sensitive decisions. Moreover, BATs' ability to value potential future information sources positions it as an optimal strategy for sequential data acquisition during policy implementation. While acknowledging the assumptions and models intrinsic to BATs, such as prior distributions and likelihood functions, the paper argues that these are advantageous for decision-makers in
Investigating serious crimes is inherently complex and resource-constrained. Law enforcement agencies (LEAs) grapple with overwhelming volumes of offender and incident data, making effective suspect identification difficult. Although machine learning (ML)-enabled systems have been explored to support LEAs, several have failed in practice. This highlights the need to align system behavior with stakeholder goals early in development, motivating the use of Goal-Oriented Requirements Engineering (GORE). This paper reports our experience applying the GORE framework KAOS to designing an ML-enabled system for identifying suspects in online child sexual abuse. We describe how KAOS supported early requirements elaboration, including goal refinement, object modeling, agent assignment, and operationalization. A key finding is the central role of data elicitation: data requirements constrain refinement choices and candidate agents while influencing how goals are linked, operationalized, and satisfied. Conversely, goal elaboration and agent assignment shape data quality expectations and collection needs. Our experience highlights the iterative, bidirectional dependencies between goals, data, an
We explore the promises and challenges of employing sequential decision-making algorithms -- such as bandits, reinforcement learning, and active learning -- in law and public policy. While such algorithms have well-characterized performance in the private sector (e.g., online advertising), the tendency to naively apply algorithms motivated by one domain, often online advertisements, can be called the "advertisement fallacy." Our main thesis is that law and public policy pose distinct methodological challenges that the machine learning community has not yet addressed. Machine learning will need to address these methodological problems to move "beyond ads." Public law, for instance, can pose multiple objectives, necessitate batched and delayed feedback, and require systems to learn rational, causal decision-making policies, each of which presents novel questions at the research frontier. We discuss a wide range of potential applications of sequential decision-making algorithms in regulation and governance, including public health, environmental protection, tax administration, occupational safety, and benefits adjudication. We use these examples to highlight research needed to render
Brazil holds approximately 1/3 of population living infected with AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) in Central and South Americas, and it was also the first developing country to implement a large-scale control and intervention program against AIDS epidemic. In this scenario, we investigate the temporal evolution and current status of the AIDS epidemic in Brazil. Specifically, we analyze records of annual absolute frequency of cases for more than 5000 cities for the first 33 years of the infection in Brazil. We found that (i) the annual absolute frequencies exhibit a logistic-type growth with an exponential regime in the first few years of the AIDS spreading; (ii) the actual reproduction number decaying as a power law; (iii) the distribution of the annual absolute frequencies among cities decays with a power law behavior; (iv) the annual absolute frequencies and the number of inhabitants have an allometric relationship; (v) the temporal evolution of the annual absolute frequencies have different profile depending on the average annual absolute frequencies in the cities. These findings yield a general quantitative description of the AIDS infection dynamics in Brazil since th
Crowdsourcing is rapidly evolving and applied in situations where ideas, labour, opinion or expertise of large groups of people are used. Crowdsourcing is now used in various policy-making initiatives; however, this use has usually focused on open collaboration platforms and specific stages of the policy process, such as agenda-setting and policy evaluations. Other forms of crowdsourcing have been neglected in policy-making, with a few exceptions. This article examines crowdsourcing as a tool for policy-making, and explores the nuances of the technology and its use and implications for different stages of the policy process. The article addresses questions surrounding the role of crowdsourcing and whether it can be considered as a policy tool or as a technological enabler and investigates the current trends and future directions of crowdsourcing. Keywords: Crowdsourcing, Public Policy, Policy Instrument, Policy Tool, Policy Process, Policy Cycle, Open Collaboration, Virtual Labour Markets, Tournaments, Competition.
Building upon the theory and methodology of agricultural policy developed in the previous chapter, in Chapter 2 we analyse and assess agricultural policy making in Ukraine since the breakup of Soviet Union till today. Going from top down to the bottom, we begin by describing the evolution of state policy in the agri-food sector. In the beginning, we describe the major milestones of agricultural policy making since independence, paving the way to the political economy of the modern agricultural policy in Ukraine. Then we describe the role of agri-food sector in the national economy as well as globally in ensuring food security in the world. After, we dig deeper and focus on a detailed performance of agricultural sector by looking at farm structures, their land use, overall and sector-wise untapped productivity potential. Modern agricultural policy and institutional set-up is contained and analyzed in details in the section 2.4. A review of the agricultural up- and downstream sectors wraps up this chapter
The innovations emerging at the frontier of artificial intelligence (AI) are poised to create historic opportunities for humanity but also raise complex policy challenges. Continued progress in frontier AI carries the potential for profound advances in scientific discovery, economic productivity, and broader social well-being. As the epicenter of global AI innovation, California has a unique opportunity to continue supporting developments in frontier AI while addressing substantial risks that could have far reaching consequences for the state and beyond. This report leverages broad evidence, including empirical research, historical analysis, and modeling and simulations, to provide a framework for policymaking on the frontier of AI development. Building on this multidisciplinary approach, this report derives policy principles that can inform how California approaches the use, assessment, and governance of frontier AI: principles rooted in an ethos of trust but verify. This approach takes into account the importance of innovation while establishing appropriate strategies to reduce material risks.
This paper addresses a critical gap in legal analytics by developing and applying a novel taxonomy for topic classification of summary judgment cases in the United Kingdom. Using a curated dataset of summary judgment cases, we use the Large Language Model Claude 3 Opus to explore functional topics and trends. We find that Claude 3 Opus correctly classified the topic with an accuracy of 87.13% and an F1 score of 0.87. The analysis reveals distinct patterns in the application of summary judgments across various legal domains. As case law in the United Kingdom is not originally labelled with keywords or a topic filtering option, the findings not only refine our understanding of the thematic underpinnings of summary judgments but also illustrate the potential of combining traditional and AI-driven approaches in legal classification. Therefore, this paper provides a new and general taxonomy for UK law. The implications of this work serve as a foundation for further research and policy discussions in the field of judicial administration and computational legal research methodologies.
Policies are designed to distinguish between correct and incorrect actions; they are types. But badly typed actions may cause not compile errors, but financial and reputational harm We demonstrate how even the most complex ABAC policies can be expressed as types in dependently typed languages such as Agda and Lean, providing a single framework to express, analyze, and implement policies. We then go head-to-head with Rego, the popular and powerful open-source ABAC policy language. We show the superior safety that comes with a powerful type system and built-in proof assistant. In passing, we discuss various access control models, sketch how to integrate in a future when attributes are distributed and signed (as discussed at the W3C), and show how policies can be communicated using just the syntax of the language. Our examples are in Agda.
We propose a new Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects alternative exclusion restrictions over time and, as a condition for the search, allows to verify identification through heteroskedasticity within each regime. Based on four alternative monetary policy rules, we show that a monthly six-variable system supports time variation in US monetary policy shock identification. In the sample-dominating first regime, systematic monetary policy follows a Taylor rule extended by the term spread, effectively curbing inflation. In the second regime, occurring after 2000 and gaining more persistence after the global financial and COVID crises, it is characterized by a money-augmented Taylor rule. This regime's unconventional monetary policy provides economic stimulus, features the liquidity effect, and is complemented by a pure term spread shock. Absent the specific monetary policy of the second regime, inflation would be over one percentage point higher on average after 2008.
Can Crowds serve as useful allies in policy design? How do non-expert Crowds perform relative to experts in the assessment of policy measures? Does the geographic location of non-expert Crowds, with relevance to the policy context, alter the performance of non-experts Crowds in the assessment of policy measures? In this work, we investigate these questions by undertaking experiments designed to replicate expert policy assessments with non-expert Crowds recruited from Virtual Labor Markets. We use a set of ninety-six climate change adaptation policy measures previously evaluated by experts in the Netherlands as our control condition to conduct experiments using two discrete sets of non-expert Crowds recruited from Virtual Labor Markets. We vary the composition of our non-expert Crowds along two conditions: participants recruited from a geographical location directly relevant to the policy context and participants recruited at-large. We discuss our research methods in detail and provide the findings of our experiments.
This paper brings attention to epistemic injustice, an issue that has not received much attention in the design of technology and policy. Epistemic injustices occur when individuals are treated unfairly or harmed specifically in relation to their role as knowers or possessors of knowledge. Drawing on the case of making heat complaints in New York City, this paper illustrates how both technological and policy interventions that address epistemic injustice can fail or even exacerbate the situations for certain social groups, and individuals within them. In bringing this case to the workshop, this paper hopes to provide another generative and critical dimension that can be utilised to create better technologies and policies, especially when they deal with diverse and broad range of social groups
We study the problem of obtaining accurate policy gradient estimates using a finite number of samples. Monte-Carlo methods have been the default choice for policy gradient estimation, despite suffering from high variance in the gradient estimates. On the other hand, more sample efficient alternatives like Bayesian quadrature methods have received little attention due to their high computational complexity. In this work, we propose deep Bayesian quadrature policy gradient (DBQPG), a computationally efficient high-dimensional generalization of Bayesian quadrature, for policy gradient estimation. We show that DBQPG can substitute Monte-Carlo estimation in policy gradient methods, and demonstrate its effectiveness on a set of continuous control benchmarks. In comparison to Monte-Carlo estimation, DBQPG provides (i) more accurate gradient estimates with a significantly lower variance, (ii) a consistent improvement in the sample complexity and average return for several deep policy gradient algorithms, and, (iii) the uncertainty in gradient estimation that can be incorporated to further improve the performance.