Wildfires pose a significant natural disaster risk to populations and contribute to accelerated climate change. As wildfires are also affected by climate change, extreme wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent. Although they occur less frequently globally than those sparked by human activities, lightning-ignited wildfires play a substantial role in carbon emissions and account for the majority of burned areas in certain regions. While existing computational models, especially those based on machine learning, aim to predict lightning-ignited wildfires, they are typically tailored to specific regions with unique characteristics, limiting their global applicability. In this study, we present machine learning models designed to characterize and predict lightning-ignited wildfires on a global scale. Our approach involves classifying lightning-ignited versus anthropogenic wildfires, and estimating with high accuracy the probability of lightning to ignite a fire based on a wide spectrum of factors such as meteorological conditions and vegetation. Utilizing these models, we analyze seasonal and spatial trends in lightning-ignited wildfires shedding light on the impact of climate chang
In recent years, the frequency and intensity of grid-ignited wildfires have increased significantly, leading to an elevated level of risk exposure to public safety and financial repercussions for electric utilities threatening their solvency. It is, therefore, imperative for electric utilities to accurately assess the financial impact of potential wildfires ignited by their power infrastructure. This is a critical step toward developing risk-informed strategies to mitigate grid-ignited wildfires from both operational and financial perspectives. This paper proposes and develops an integrated model to evaluate the damage costs associated with potential grid-ignited wildfires to allow assessing financial risk with greater precision than existing literature. The proposed model is tailored to assess the financial risk associated with grid-ignited wildfires, including environmental damages, destroyed structures, and damage to the power grid assets. We quantify the risk associated with each power line, thereby identifying areas that require immediate preemptive actions. To visually represent the risk levels associated with the transmission grid topology, we implement a color-coded risk he
Climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of wildfires, leading to increased evacuation events that disrupt human mobility and socioeconomic structures. These disruptions affect access to resources, employment, and housing, amplifying existing vulnerabilities within communities. Understanding the interplay between climate change, wildfires, evacuation patterns, and socioeconomic factors is crucial for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. To contribute to this challenge, we use high-definition mobile phone records to analyse evacuation patterns during the wildfires in Valparaíso, Chile, that took place between February 2-3, 2024. This data allows us to track the movements of individuals in the disaster area, providing insight into how people respond to large-scale evacuations in the context of severe wildfires. We apply a causal inference approach that combines regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences methodologies to observe evacuation behaviours during wildfires, with a focus on socioeconomic stratification. This approach allows us to isolate the impact of the wildfires on different socioeconomic groups by comparing the evacuation p
Rapid information access is vital during wildfires, yet traditional data sources are slow and costly. Social media offers real-time updates, but extracting relevant insights remains a challenge. In this work, we focus on multimodal wildfire social media data, which, although existing in current datasets, is currently underrepresented in Canadian contexts. We present WildFireCan-MMD, a new multimodal dataset of X posts from recent Canadian wildfires, annotated across twelve key themes. We evaluate zero-shot vision-language models on this dataset and compare their results with those of custom-trained and baseline classifiers. We show that while baseline methods and zero-shot prompting offer quick deployment, custom-trained models outperform them when labelled data is available. Our best-performing custom model reaches 84.48% f-score, outperforming VLMs and baseline classifiers. We also demonstrate how this model can be used to uncover trends during wildfires, through the collection and analysis of a large unlabeled dataset. Our dataset facilitates future research in wildfire response, and our findings highlight the importance of tailored datasets and task-specific training. Important
Wildfires ignited by the power lines have become increasingly common over the past decade. Enhancing the operational and financial resilience of power grids against wildfires involves a multifaceted approach. Key proactive measures include meticulous vegetation management, strategic grid hardening such as infrastructure undergrounding, preemptive de-energization, and disaster risk financing, among others. Each measure should be tailored to prioritize efforts in mitigating the consequences of wildfires. This paper proposes a transmission line risk assessment method for grid-ignited wildfires, identifying the transmission lines that could potentially lead to damage to the natural and built environment and to other transmission lines if igniting a wildfire. Grid, meteorological, and topological datasets are combined to enable a comprehensive analysis. Numerical analysis on the standard IEEE 30-bus system demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Electric power infrastructure faces increasing risk of damage and disruption due to wildfire. Operators of power grids in wildfire-prone regions must consider the potential impacts of unpredictable fires. However, traditional wildfire models do not effectively describe worst-case, or even high-impact, fire behavior. To address this issue, we propose a mixed-integer conic program to characterize an adversarial wildfire that targets infrastructure while respecting realistic fire spread dynamics. We design a wind-assisted fire spread set based on the Rothermel fire spread model and propose principled convex relaxations of this set, including a new relaxation of the inner product over Euclidean balls. We present test cases derived from the recent Park, Eaton, and Palisades fires in California and solve models to identify the minimum time-to-outage of multiple-element contingencies and the maximum load shed associated with a sequence of element outages caused by a realistic wildfire. We use the minimum time-to-outage values to screen contingencies and construct security-constrained optimal power flow models that promote operational resilience against wildfire.
Wildfire impacts on US communities have escalated in recent decades, highlighting the need to better understand factors that influence wildfire outcomes. We find that 567,000 homes were exposed to wildfires across the contiguous US during 2001-2020, two-thirds of which occurred and increased five-fold in the Western US. While residential structure survivability - the percent of structures within a wildfire perimeter that survive the fire - remained stable in the Eastern US in the past two decades, it declined by 10% in the West. Survivability was explained by structural age, surrounding fuels, and fire weather. Survivability was 87% for homes built pre-1990 compared to 92% for post-1990 homes in the West. Survivability was lowest in forests compared to grasslands and shrublands. Finally, survivability was markedly lower for fires coincident with extreme fire weather. Our results suggest that modern building codes, fuel management, and proactive planning can strengthen wildfire resilience.
Recent wildfires in Australia have led to considerable economic loss and property destruction, and there is increasing concern that climate change may exacerbate their intensity, duration, and frequency. Hazard quantification for extreme wildfires is an important component of wildfire management, as it facilitates efficient resource distribution, adverse effect mitigation, and recovery efforts. However, although extreme wildfires are typically the most impactful, both small and moderate fires can still be devastating to local communities and ecosystems. Therefore, it is imperative to develop robust statistical methods to reliably model the full distribution of wildfire spread. We do so for a novel dataset of Australian wildfires from 1999 to 2019, and analyse monthly spread over areas approximately corresponding to Statistical Areas Level~1 and~2 (SA1/SA2) regions. Given the complex nature of wildfire ignition and spread, we exploit recent advances in statistical deep learning and extreme value theory to construct a parametric regression model using graph convolutional neural networks and the extended generalized Pareto distribution, which allows us to model wildfire spread observe
Extreme wildfires are a significant cause of human death and biodiversity destruction within countries that encompass the Mediterranean Basin. Recent worrying trends in wildfire activity (i.e., occurrence and spread) suggest that wildfires are likely to be highly impacted by climate change. In order to facilitate appropriate risk mitigation, we must identify the main drivers of extreme wildfires and assess their spatio-temporal trends, with a view to understanding the impacts of global warming on fire activity. We analyse the monthly burnt area due to wildfires over a region encompassing most of Europe and the Mediterranean Basin from 2001 to 2020, and identify high fire activity during this period in Algeria, Italy and Portugal. We build an extreme quantile regression model with a high-dimensional predictor set describing meteorological conditions, land cover usage, and orography. To model the complex relationships between the predictor variables and wildfires, we use a hybrid statistical deep-learning framework that can disentangle the effects of vapour-pressure deficit (VPD), air temperature, and drought on wildfire activity. Our results highlight that whilst VPD, air temperatur
Wildfires are a disastrous phenomenon which cause damage to land, loss of property, air pollution, and even loss of human life. Due to the warmer and drier conditions created by climate change, more severe and uncontrollable wildfires are expected to occur in the coming years. This could lead to a global wildfire crisis and have dire consequences on our planet. Hence, it has become imperative to use technology to help prevent the spread of wildfires. One way to prevent the spread of wildfires before they become too large is to perform early detection i.e, detecting the smoke before the actual fire starts. In this paper, we present our Wildfire Detection and Alert System which use machine learning to detect wildfire smoke with a high degree of accuracy and can send immediate alerts to users. Our technology is currently being used in the USA to monitor data coming in from hundreds of cameras daily. We show that our system has a high true detection rate and a low false detection rate. Our performance evaluation study also shows that on an average our system detects wildfire smoke faster than an actual person.
Siberian wildfires and related regional anomalies of atmospheric impurities during the period of 2000-2019 are analyzed. The long-range transport of biomass burning products from Siberian wildfires into the Arctic atmosphere during the period of 2000-2019 is estimated. An analysis of the characteristics of forest fires over the past two decades revealed a significant increase in radiation power of an average Siberian wildfire. A joint analysis of fire activity in Siberian forests, as well as the contents of the black carbon (BC) and carbon monoxide (CO) contents in the Arctic atmosphere, indicates that extreme fire events cause the development of regional anomalies in BC and CO. Correlation between the anomalies of BC (CO) over the Russian segment of the Arctic and the number of Siberian wildfires is found to be statistically significant. Using a linear regression, an estimates of the sensitivity of the total BC content and in the volume mixing ratio of CO to the increase in the number of fires. The results of an analysis of the long-range BC transport into the Arctic It is shown, in particular, that the transport of BC to the Arctic from the Siberian regions with fires in the summ
One of the impacts of climate change is the difficulty of tree regrowth after wildfires over areas that traditionally were covered by certain tree species. Here a deep learning model is customized to classify land covers from four-band aerial imagery before and after wildfires to study the prolonged consequences of wildfires on tree species. The tree species labels are generated from manually delineated maps for five land cover classes: Conifer, Hardwood, Shrub, ReforestedTree and Barren land. With an accuracy of $92\%$ on the test split, the model is applied to three wildfires on data from 2009 to 2018. The model accurately delineates areas damaged by wildfires, changes in tree species and rebound of burned areas. The result shows clear evidence of wildfires impacting the local ecosystem and the outlined approach can help monitor reforested areas, observe changes in forest composition and track wildfire impact on tree species.
The increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires poses severe threats to the secure and stable operation of power grids, particularly one that is interspersed with renewable generation. Unlike conventional contingencies, wildfires affect multiple assets, leading to cascading outages and rapid degradation of system operability and stability. At the same time, the usual precursors of large wildfires, namely dry and windy conditions, are known with high confidence at least a day in advance. Thus, a coordinated decision-making scheme employing both day-ahead and real-time information has a significant potential to mitigate dynamic wildfire risks in renewable-rich power systems. Such a scheme is developed in this paper through a novel stochastic preventive-corrective cut-set and stability-constrained unit commitment and optimal power flow formulation that also accounts for the variability of renewable generation. The results obtained using a reduced 240-bus system of the US Western Interconnection demonstrate that the proposed approach increases the resilience of power systems across multiple levels of wildfire risks while maintaining economic viability.
Wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent, with potentially devastating consequences, including loss of life, infrastructure destruction, and severe environmental damage. Low Earth orbit satellites equipped with onboard sensors can capture critical information relative to active wildfires and enable near real-time detection through machine learning algorithms applied to the acquired data. We propose a framework that automates the complete wildfire detection and satellite scheduling pipeline, entitled the WildFire-applicable Intelligent and Responsive Ensemble for Detection and Scheduling (WildFIRE-DS). This paper develops an algorithm to realize the vision of the WildFIRE-DS as a proof of concept, integrating three key components: wildfire detection in satellite imagery, statistical updating that incorporates data from repeated flyovers, and multi-satellite scheduling optimization. The algorithm enables wildfire detection using convolutional neural networks with sensor fusion techniques, incorporates subsequent flyover information via Bayesian statistics, and schedules a constellation of satellites using the state-of-the-art Reconfigurable Earth Observation Satellite Scheduling
Wildfires are increasing in intensity, frequency, and duration across large parts of the world as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Modern hazard detection and response systems that deal with wildfires are under-equipped for sustained wildfire seasons. Recent work has proved automated wildfire detection using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) trained on satellite imagery are capable of high-accuracy results. However, CNNs are computationally expensive to train and only incorporate local image context. Recently, Vision Transformers (ViTs) have gained popularity for their efficient training and their ability to include both local and global contextual information. In this work, we show that ViT can outperform well-trained and specialized CNNs to detect wildfires on a previously published dataset of LandSat-8 imagery. One of our ViTs outperforms the baseline CNN comparison by 0.92%. However, we find our own implementation of CNN-based UNet to perform best in every category, showing their sustained utility in image tasks. Overall, ViTs are comparably capable in detecting wildfires as CNNs, though well-tuned CNNs are still the best technique for detecting wildfire with our UN
The critical need for sophisticated detection techniques has been highlighted by the rising frequency and intensity of wildfires in the US, especially in California. In 2023, wildfires caused 130 deaths nationwide, the highest since 1990. In January 2025, Los Angeles wildfires which included the Palisades and Eaton fires burnt approximately 40,000 acres and 12,000 buildings, and caused loss of human lives. The devastation underscores the urgent need for effective detection and prevention strategies. Deep learning models, such as Vision Transformers (ViTs), can enhance early detection by processing complex image data with high accuracy. However, wildfire detection faces challenges, including the availability of high-quality, real-time data. Wildfires often occur in remote areas with limited sensor coverage, and environmental factors like smoke and cloud cover can hinder detection. Additionally, training deep learning models is computationally expensive, and issues like false positives/negatives and scaling remain concerns. Integrating detection systems with real-time alert mechanisms also poses difficulties. In this work, we used the wildfire dataset consisting of 10.74 GB high-reso
Wildfires pose a serious threat to the environment of the world. The global wildfire season length has increased by 19% and severe wildfires have besieged nations around the world. Every year, forests are burned by wildfires, causing vast amounts of carbon dioxide to be released into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change. There is a need for a system which prevents, detects, and suppresses wildfires. The AI based Wildfire Prevention, Detection and Suppression System (WPDSS) is a novel, fully automated, end to end, AI based solution to effectively predict hotspots and detect wildfires, deploy drones to spray fire retardant, preventing and suppressing wildfires. WPDSS consists of four steps. 1. Preprocessing: WPDSS loads real time satellite data from NASA and meteorological data from NOAA of vegetation, temperature, precipitation, wind, soil moisture, and land cover for prevention. For detection, it loads the real time data of Land Cover, Humidity, Temperature, Vegetation, Burned Area Index, Ozone, and CO2. It uses the process of masking to eliminate not hotspots and not wildfires such as water bodies, and rainfall. 2. Learning: The AI model consists of a random forest class
In this paper, we propose a feedback control strategy to protect vulnerable areas from wildfires. We consider a system of coupled partial differential equations (PDEs) that models heat propagation and fuel depletion in wildfires and study two cases. First, when the wind velocity is known, we design a Neumann-type boundary controller guaranteeing that the temperature of some protected region converges exponentially, in the $L^2$ norm, to the ambient temperature. Second, when the wind velocity is unknown, we design an adaptive Neumann-type boundary controller guaranteeing the asymptotic convergence, in the $L^2$ norm, of the temperature of the protected region to the ambient temperature. In both cases, the controller acts along the boundary of the protected region and relies solely on temperature measurements along that boundary. Our results are supported by numerical simulations.
Over 8,024 wildfire incidents have been documented in 2024 alone, affecting thousands of fatalities and significant damage to infrastructure and ecosystems. Wildfires in the United States have inflicted devastating losses. Wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense, which highlights how urgently efficient warning systems are needed to avoid disastrous outcomes. The goal of this study is to enhance the accuracy of wildfire detection by using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) built on the VGG16 architecture. The D-FIRE dataset, which includes several kinds of wildfire and non-wildfire images, was employed in the study. Low-resolution images, dataset imbalance, and the necessity for real-time applicability are some of the main challenges. These problems were resolved by enriching the dataset using data augmentation techniques and optimizing the VGG16 model for binary classification. The model produced a low false negative rate, which is essential for reducing unexplored fires, despite dataset boundaries. In order to help authorities execute fast responses, this work shows that deep learning models such as VGG16 can offer a reliable, automated approach for early wildfire recogni
Due to climate change and the disruption of ecosystems worldwide, wildfires are increasingly impacting environment, infrastructure, and human lives globally. Additionally, an exacerbating climate crisis means that these losses would continue to grow if preventative measures are not implemented. Though recent advancements in artificial intelligence enable wildfire management techniques, most deployed solutions focus on detecting wildfires after ignition. The development of predictive techniques with high accuracy requires extensive datasets to train machine learning models. This paper presents the California Wildfire Inventory (CAWFI), a wildfire database of over 37 million data points for building and training wildfire prediction solutions, thereby potentially preventing megafires and flash fires by addressing them before they spark. The dataset compiles daily historical California wildfire data from 2012 to 2018 and indicator data from 2012 to 2022. The indicator data consists of leading indicators (meteorological data correlating to wildfire-prone conditions), trailing indicators (environmental data correlating to prior and early wildfire activity), and geological indicators (veg