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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Weather Service (NWS) issues warnings for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and flash floods because these phenomena are a threat to life and property. These warnings are presently based upon either visual confirmation of the phenomena or the observational detection of proxy signatures that are largely based upon radar observations. Convective-scale weather warnings are unique in the NWS, having little reliance on direct numerical forecast guidance. Because increasing severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash-flood warning lead times are a key NOAA strategic mission goal designed to reduce the loss of life, injury, and economic costs of these high-impact weather phenomena, a new warning paradigm is needed in which numerical model forecasts play a larger role in convective-scale warnings. This new paradigm shifts the warning process from warn on detection to warn on forecast, and it has the potential to dramatically increase warning lead times. A warn-on-forecast system is envisioned as a probabilistic convective-scale ensemble analysis and forecast system that assimilates in-storm observations into a high-resolution convection-resolving model ensemble. The building blocks needed for such a system are presently available, and initial research results clearly illustrate the value of radar observations to the production of accurate analyses of convective weather systems and improved forecasts. Although a number of scientific and cultural challenges still need to be overcome, the potential benefits are significant. A probabilistic convective-scale warn-on-forecast system is a vision worth pursuing.
Many popular web browsers are now including active phishing warnings after previous research has shown that passive warnings are often ignored. In this laboratory study we examine the effectiveness of these warnings and examine if, how, and why they fail users. We simulated a spear phishing attack to expose users to browser warnings. We found that 97% of our sixty participants fell for at least one of the phishing messages that we sent them. However, we also found that when presented with the active warnings, 79% of participants heeded them, which was not the case for the passive warning that we tested---where only one participant heeded the warnings. Using a model from the warning sciences we analyzed how users perceive warning messages and offer suggestions for creating more effective warning messages within the phishing context.
Abstract In 2009, advancements in NWP and computing power inspired a vision to advance hazardous weather warnings from a warn-on-detection to a warn-on-forecast paradigm. This vision would require not only the prediction of individual thunderstorms and their attributes but the likelihood of their occurrence in time and space. During the last decade, the warn-on-forecast research team at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory met this challenge through the research and development of 1) an ensemble of high-resolution convection-allowing models; 2) ensemble- and variational-based assimilation of weather radar, satellite, and conventional observations; and 3) unique postprocessing and verification techniques, culminating in the experimental Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). Since 2017, we have directly engaged users in the testing, evaluation, and visualization of this system to ensure that WoFS guidance is usable and useful to operational forecasters at NOAA national centers and local offices responsible for forecasting severe weather, tornadoes, and flash floods across the watch-to-warning continuum. Although an experimental WoFS is now a reality, we close by discussing many of the exciting opportunities remaining, including folding this system into the Unified Forecast System, transitioning WoFS into NWS operations, and pursuing next-decade science goals for further advancing storm-scale prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this research is to develop an experimental prediction system that forecasts the probability for severe weather hazards associated with individual thunderstorms up to 6 h in advance. This capability is important because some people and organizations, like those living in mobile homes, caring for patients in hospitals, or managing large outdoor events, require extended lead time to protect themselves and others from potential severe weather hazards. Our results demonstrate a prediction system that enables forecasters, for the first time, to message probabilistic hazard information associated with individual severe storms between the watch-to-warning time frame within the United States.
Abstract Tornado warnings are currently issued an average of 13 min in advance of a tornado and are based on a warn-on-detection paradigm. However, computer model improvements may allow for a new warning paradigm, warn-on-forecast, to be established in the future. This would mean that tornado warnings could be issued one to two hours in advance, prior to storm initiation. In anticipation of the technological innovation, this study inquires whether the warn-on-forecast paradigm for tornado warnings may be preferred by the public (i.e., individuals and households). The authors sample is drawn from visitors to the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. During the summer and fall of 2009, surveys were distributed to 320 participants to assess their understanding and perception of weather risks and preferred tornado warning lead time. Responses were analyzed according to several different parameters including age, region of residency, educational level, number of children, and prior tornado experience. A majority of the respondents answered many of the weather risk questions correctly. They seemed to be familiar with tornado seasons; however, they were unaware of the relative number of fatalities caused by tornadoes and several additional weather phenomena each year in the United States. The preferred lead time was 34.3 min according to average survey responses. This suggests that while the general public may currently prefer a longer average lead time than the present system offers, the preference does not extend to the 1–2-h time frame theoretically offered by the warn-on-forecast system. When asked what they would do if given a 1-h lead time, respondents reported that taking shelter was a lesser priority than when given a 15-min lead time, and fleeing the area became a slightly more popular alternative. A majority of respondents also reported the situation would feel less life threatening if given a 1-h lead time. These results suggest that how the public responds to longer lead times may be complex and situationally dependent, and further study must be conducted to ascertain the users for whom the longer lead times would carry the most value. These results form the basis of an informative stated-preference approach to predicting public response to long (>1 h) warning lead times, using public understanding of the risks posed by severe weather events to contextualize lead-time demand.
The present study was designed to explore the effects of warned and unwarned demand transitions in vigilance on performance and self-reported stress. Twenty observers (10 women and 10 men) were assigned at random to each of six conditions resulting from the factorial combination of signal salience (high and low salience signals) and switching (no switch, switch with warning, and switch without warning). Performance metrics and self-reported stress state (Task Engagement, Distress, and Worry) were collected. While demand transitions did destabilize subsequent performance, increasing intra-individual variability, overall performance efficiency was uninfluenced by either switching or warning. Demand transitions, whether warned or not, increased self-reported distress. A dynamic model of performance stress may be necessary and research employing vigilance tasks in the future may be useful for developing this performance-stress model.
Determining the most effective public warnings to issue during a hazardous environmental event is a complex problem. Three primary questions need to be answered: Who should take protective action? What is the best action? and When should this action be initiated? Warning triggers provide a proactive means for emergency managers to simultaneously answer these questions by recommending that a target group take a specified protective action if a preset environmental trigger condition occurs (e.g., warn a community to evacuate if a wildfire crosses a proximal ridgeline). Triggers are used to warn the public across a wide variety of environmental hazards, and an improved understanding of their nature and role promises to: (1) advance protective action theory by unifying the natural, built, and social themes in hazards research into one framework, (2) reveal important information about emergency managers' risk perception, situational awareness, and threat assessment regarding threat behavior and public response, and (3) advance spatiotemporal models for representing the geography and timing of disaster warning and response (i.e., a coupled natural-built-social system). We provide an overview and research agenda designed to advance our understanding and modeling of warning triggers.
Genetic tests for adult-onset disorders, including common forms of cancer, are now commercially available, and tests for genetic polymorphisms that predict drug effects or toxicity after treatment are under development. For each of these circumstances, testing of 1 individual may imply an increased risk to his/her relative. The obligation, if any, to warn family members of the identification of a genetic mutation has generated concerns regarding the conflict between the physician's ethical obligations to respect the privacy of genetic information vs the potential liabilities resulting from the physician's failure to notify at-risk relatives. A duty to warn relatives about risks due to some infectious agents has been assumed by state and local health agencies, and the duty to breach confidentiality to warn of imminent harm has been the subject of case law. In general, the special nature of genetic tests has been viewed as a barrier to physicians' breaching the confidentiality of personal genetic information. However, the failure to warn family members about hereditary disease risks has already resulted in 3 lawsuits against physicians in the United States. While the findings of case law and the state and federal statutes that bear on the issue of "duty to warn" of inherited health risk are still being defined, we believe that health care professionals have a responsibility to encourage but not to coerce the sharing of genetic information in families, while respecting the boundaries imposed by the law and by the ethical practice of medicine.
When a patient refuses to inform relatives of their risk for genetic disease, the genetic healthcare professional is faced with conflicting ethical obligations. On one side of the issue is the obligation to respect and protect patients' right to privacy. On the other side is the obligation to prevent harm and promote the welfare of the family members, which suggests a responsibility to warn at-risk relatives, even without the patient's consent. In an effort to examine the actual clinical impact of this issue, we conducted a pilot study that explored genetic counselors' experience with this conflict. A survey was developed and made available to members of the National Society of Genetic Counselors. Questions were either multiple-choice responses or open-ended. Almost half of respondents (119/259; 46%) had had a patient refuse to notify an at-risk relative. The most commonly cited reasons for refusal were estranged family relationships, altering family dynamics, insurance discrimination, and employment discrimination, respectively. Of these 119 counselors, 24 (21%) reported that they seriously considered warning the at-risk relatives without patient consent, and one actually did disclose. Three factors consistently made the counselors less likely to disclose: their patient's potential emotional reaction, the relationship between the relative and patient, and the chance that the relative could be aware of the disease by another means. These results suggest that while the conflict is often encountered in clinical practice, it is rare that the situation remains unresolved to the extent that genetic counselors actually consider warning at-risk relatives. However, when the situation was encountered, the counselors in this study reported a lower rate of disclosure without consent than would have been anticipated based on previous studies that used hypothetical situations. It may be that counselors do not recognize a duty to warn at-risk relatives as integral to their role and professional obligations.
Die COVID-19-Pandemie ist eine gesellschaftliche Gesundheitskrise, in der erstmals weltweit in groem Stil populationsbasierte Technologien der Kontaktnachverfolgung (sog.Contact-Tracing-bzw. Pandemie-Apps) zur Pandemiebekmpfung eingesetzt werden.Mit ihnen ist das Ziel verbunden, die Ausbreitung des Virus zu verhindern, indem Begegnungen aufgezeichnet und Warnungen ber mgliche Risikokontakte verschickt werden.Hierzu bersetzen Apps wie die von der Bundesregierung gemeinsam mit dem Robert-Koch-Institut (RKI) herausgegebene Corona-Warn-App (CWA) mithilfe des Smartphones Kontakte ber Bluetooth-Signale in Daten und berechnen mit diesen einen Score fr das Risiko einer bertragung (sog.Risk-Score).Dabei ist zu beachten, dass die Contact-Tracing-Apps aus jeweils nationalen Apps als Clients auf dem jeweiligen mobilen Endgert und den zentralen Servern bestehen.Diese interagieren ber die von Google und Apple bereitgestellte Schnittstelle, das Google Apple Exposure Notification Framework (GA-ENF), und ermglichen so die bluetoothbasierte Kontaktnachverfolgung (Dix 2020, S. 780).Die gemeinsame Arbeit fr die digitale Pandemiebekmpfung der beiden Konkurrenzunternehmen Apple und Google stie weltweit auf Begeisterung und Verwunderung (Sharon 2020, S. 4
A patient who refuses to notify their relatives of potential at-risk status brings a genetics provider to face conflicting ethical principles and ill-defined legal precedent. Genetics professionals' views on the disclosure of patient information to at-risk relatives have remained largely unexamined. Prior analyses have been limited to identifying factors contributing to genetics providers' self-predicted responses in hypothetical scenarios. Our group was the first to examine the clinical experience of genetic counselors with this issue [Dugan et al., 2003]. We report here results from our follow-up survey of medical geneticists who are members of either the American Society of Human Genetics and/or American College of Medical Genetics in an effort to identify their experiences in warning at-risk relatives and the factors driving their decision-making processes. Over two-thirds of medical geneticists surveyed (69%, 143/206) believe they do bear responsibility to warn their patients' relatives when found to be at-risk for genetic disease. One-quarter (25%, 31/123) of medical geneticists who faced the dilemma of a patient refusing to notify their at-risk relatives seriously considered disclosure to those at-risk relatives without patient consent. Only four respondents proceeded to warn at-risk relatives of their status. Whereas genetic counselors cited emotional issues as playing a primary role in their decision not to warn, medical geneticists identified patient confidentiality, eventual case resolution by other means, and legal liability as the major factors leading to non-disclosure in 76% of actual scenarios. Responsibilities of medical geneticists, genetic counselors, and non-genetics healthcare professionals facing this issue will need to be more clearly defined to provide optimal medical care within the bounds of acceptable practice.
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Abstract Recent climate studies have predicted a future with longer, more intense, and more frequent heat events. Evolving challenges presented by this paradigm necessitate an assessment of current efforts to warn for extreme heat events. NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) issue Excessive Heat Watch, Excessive Heat Warning, and Heat Advisory products as conditions warrant. In the fall of 2013 the NWS conducted an internal assessment with its WFOs to 1) document variations in the usage of heat-based watch, warning, and advisory hazard messages (products) across the country; 2) learn about the degree to which locally developed criteria are applied to forecaster decision-making processes in issuing these products; and 3) gather ideas for enhancing communication of expected excessive heat events in general. Survey responses indicate that WFOs selectively use one or a combination of products, and that various methodologies are used to develop criteria for issuing heat products. Given that forecasters use meteorological and nonmeteorological factors when deciding to issue heat products, forecaster judgment is a crucial element of the warning process. Results also revealed partner confusion due to inconsistent heat product issuance criteria. Suggestions were made for eliminating or revising existing products and policies, or creating new products, policies, or issuance criteria. Results of the survey led the NWS to investigate approaches for achieving higher levels of consistency in heat product issuance criteria, and to engage health partners to examine how heat product issuance criteria could incorporate the known health impacts of heat exposure.
The BMA has warned that doctors are still being placed at “considerable risk” by shortages of personal protective equipment, despite government assurances that enough supplies are being delivered. On 30 March the association said it was seeking urgent clarity from the government on what risks staff in hospitals and GP surgeries should and should not have to take if they didn’t have adequate PPE. The move follows a warning last week that the shortage of PPE was unacceptable and was putting doctors’ lives at risk.1 The warning was in response to the secretary of state for housing, communities, and local government, Robert Jenrick, saying at the government’s daily briefing on 29 March that “we cannot and should not ask healthcare workers to …
To slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the German government released the 'Corona-Warn-App', a smartphone application that warns users if they have come into contact with other users tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Since using the 'Corona-Warn-App' is health-relevant behavior, it is essential to understand who is (and who is not) using it and why. In N = 1972 German adults, we found that non-users were on average older, female, healthier, in training and had low general trust in others. The most frequently named reasons by non-users were privacy concerns, doubts about the effectiveness of the app and lack of technical equipment.
A World Antimalarial Resistance Network (WARN) database has the potential to improve the treatment of malaria, through informing current drug selection and use and providing a prompt warning of when treatment policies need changing. This manuscript outlines the contribution and structure of the clinical pharmacology component of this database. The determinants of treatment response are multi-factorial, but clearly providing adequate blood concentrations is pivotal to curing malaria. The ability of available antimalarial pharmacokinetic data to inform optimal dosing is constrained by the small number of patients studied, with even fewer (if any) studies conducted in the most vulnerable populations. There are even less data relating blood concentration data to the therapeutic response (pharmacodynamics). By pooling all available pharmacokinetic data, while paying careful attention to the analytical methodologies used, the limitations of small (and thus underpowered) individual studies may be overcome and factors that contribute to inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetic parameters defined. Key variables for pharmacokinetic studies are defined in terms of patient (or study subject) characteristics, the formulation and route of administration of the antimalarial studied, the sampling and assay methodology, and the approach taken to data analysis. Better defining these information needs and criteria of acceptability of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) studies should contribute to improving the quantity, relevance and quality of these studies. A better understanding of the pharmacokinetic properties of antimalarials and a more clear definition of what constitutes "therapeutic drug levels" would allow more precise use of the term "antimalarial resistance", as it would indicate when treatment failure is not caused by intrinsic parasite resistance but is instead the result of inadequate drug levels. The clinical pharmacology component of the WARN database can play a pivotal role in monitoring accurately for true antimalarial drug resistance and promptly correcting sub-optimal dosage regimens to prevent these contributing to the emergence and spread of antimalarial resistance.
Abstract Examines management's discretionary disclosures prior to earnings surprise. Means of informing the investors; Investors' reactions to warnings.
An object-based verification methodology for the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles (NEWS-e) has been developed and applied to 32 cases between December 2015 and June 2017. NEWS-e forecast objects of composite reflectivity and 30-minute rotation tracks of updraft helicity are matched to corresponding objects in Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor data on space and time scales typical of a National Weather Service warning. Object matching allows contingency table-based verification statistics to be used to establish baseline performance metrics for NEWS-e thunderstorm and mesocyclone forecasts. NEWS-e critical Success Index (CSI) scores of reflectivity (updraft helicity) forecasts decrease from approximately 0.7 (0.4) to 0.4 (0.2) over 3 hours of forecast time. CSI scores decrease through the forecast period, indicating that errors have not saturated and skill is retained at 3 hours of forecast time. Lower verification scores for rotation track forecasts are primarily a result of a high frequency bias. Comparison of different system configurations used in 2016 and 2017 show an increase in skill for 2017 reflectivity forecasts, attributable mainly to improvements in the forecast initial condition. A small decrease in skill in 2017 rotation track forecasts is likely a result of sample differences between 2016 and 2017. Although large case-to-case variation is present, evidence is found that NEWS-e forecast skill improves with increasing object size and intensity, as well as in mesoscale environments in which an enhanced or higher risk of severe thunderstorms was forecast.
The roots of most land plants are colonised by mycorrhizal fungi that provide mineral nutrients in exchange for carbon. Here, we show that mycorrhizal mycelia can also act as a conduit for signalling between plants, acting as an early warning system for herbivore attack. Insect herbivory causes systemic changes in the production of plant volatiles, particularly methyl salicylate, making bean plants, Vicia faba, repellent to aphids but attractive to aphid enemies such as parasitoids. We demonstrate that these effects can also occur in aphid-free plants but only when they are connected to aphid-infested plants via a common mycorrhizal mycelial network. This underground messaging system allows neighbouring plants to invoke herbivore defences before attack. Our findings demonstrate that common mycorrhizal mycelial networks can determine the outcome of multitrophic interactions by communicating information on herbivore attack between plants, thereby influencing the behaviour of both herbivores and their natural enemies.