Longitudinal ophthalmic imaging analysis is an essential step for prognosis prediction in ophthalmic diseases. However, AI-assisted prognosis models are challenged by follow-up sequences, which tend to be sparse, irregularly sampled, and incomplete. Although advanced prognosis modeling methods, especially for the methods based on neural controlled differential equations (NCDEs), provide a principled continuous-time framework for sparse and irregular longitudinal data. Unfortunately, two major concerns remain unsolved in clinical follow-up modeling. First, the smooth latent dynamics of standard NCDEs is poorly matched to abrupt pathological changes induced by therapeutic intervention, lesion recurrence, or long follow-up gaps. Second, numerical integration over long horizons can accumulate errors, which will produce unstable latent trajectories and weakened class discrimination. To address these challenges, we propose ImProNCDE, an impulse-corrected NCDE framework with prototype learning for longitudinal ophthalmic prognosis prediction. To capture abrupt pathological changes beyond smooth latent dynamics, ImProNCDE introduces Residual Impulse Calibration (RIC), which injects residua
Prognosis after intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) is influenced by a complex interplay between imaging and tabular data. Rapid and reliable prognosis are crucial for effective patient stratification and informed treatment decision-making. In this study, we aim to enhance image-based prognosis by learning a robust feature representation shared between prognosis and the clinical and demographic variables most highly correlated with it. Our approach mimics clinical decision-making by reinforcing the model to learn valuable prognostic data embedded in the image. We propose a 3D multi-task image model to predict prognosis, Glasgow Coma Scale and age, improving accuracy and interpretability. Our method outperforms current state-of-the-art baseline image models, and demonstrates superior performance in ICH prognosis compared to four board-certified neuroradiologists using only CT scans as input. We further validate our model with interpretability saliency maps. Code is available at https://github.com/MiriamCobo/MultitaskLearning_ICH_Prognosis.git.
In the field of multimodal medical data analysis, leveraging diverse types of data and understanding their hidden relationships continues to be a research focus. The main challenges lie in effectively modeling the complex interactions between heterogeneous data modalities with distinct characteristics while capturing both local and global dependencies across modalities. To address these challenges, this paper presents a two-stage multimodal prognosis model, GraphMMP, which is based on graph neural networks. The proposed model constructs feature graphs using mutual information and features a global fusion module built on Mamba, which significantly boosts prognosis performance. Empirical results show that GraphMMP surpasses existing methods on datasets related to liver prognosis and the METABRIC study, demonstrating its effectiveness in multimodal medical prognosis tasks.
Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of irreversible vision loss, making effective prognosis crucial for timely intervention. In this work, we propose AMD-Mamba, a novel multi-modal framework for AMD prognosis, and further develop a new AMD biomarker. This framework integrates color fundus images with genetic variants and socio-demographic variables. At its core, AMD-Mamba introduces an innovative metric learning strategy that leverages AMD severity scale score as prior knowledge. This strategy allows the model to learn richer feature representations by aligning learned features with clinical phenotypes, thereby improving the capability of conventional prognosis methods in capturing disease progression patterns. In addition, unlike existing models that use traditional CNN backbones and focus primarily on local information, such as the presence of drusen, AMD-Mamba applies Vision Mamba and simultaneously fuses local and long-range global information, such as vascular changes. Furthermore, we enhance prediction performance through multi-scale fusion, combining image information with clinical variables at different resolutions. We evaluate AMD-Mamba on the AREDS d
Prognosis prediction is crucial for determining optimal treatment plans for lung cancer patients. Traditionally, such predictions relied on models developed from retrospective patient data. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have gained attention for their ability to process and generate text based on extensive learned knowledge. In this study, we evaluate the potential of GPT-4o mini and GPT-3.5 in predicting the prognosis of lung cancer patients. We collected two prognosis datasets, i.e., survival and post-operative complication datasets, and designed multiple tasks to assess the models' performance comprehensively. Logistic regression models were also developed as baselines for comparison. The experimental results demonstrate that LLMs can achieve competitive, and in some tasks superior, performance in lung cancer prognosis prediction compared to data-driven logistic regression models despite not using additional patient data. These findings suggest that LLMs can be effective tools for prognosis prediction in lung cancer, particularly when patient data is limited or unavailable.
Glaucoma is one of the leading causes of irreversible blindness worldwide. Glaucoma prognosis is essential for identifying at-risk patients and enabling timely intervention to prevent blindness. Many existing approaches rely on historical sequential data but are constrained by fixed-length inputs, limiting their flexibility. Additionally, traditional glaucoma prognosis methods often employ end-to-end models, which struggle with the limited size of glaucoma datasets. To address these challenges, we propose a Two-Stage Decoupling Framework (TSDF) for variable-length glaucoma prognosis. In the first stage, we employ a feature representation module that leverages self-supervised learning to aggregate multiple glaucoma datasets for training, disregarding differences in their supervisory information. This approach enables datasets of varying sizes to learn better feature representations. In the second stage, we introduce a temporal aggregation module that incorporates an attention-based mechanism to process sequential inputs of varying lengths, ensuring flexible and efficient utilization of all available data. This design significantly enhances model performance while maintaining a compa
Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of death among women worldwide. We introduce Mammo-FM, the first foundation model specifically for mammography, pretrained on the largest and most diverse dataset to date - 140,677 patients (821,326 mammograms) across four U.S. institutions. Mammo-FM provides a unified foundation for core clinical tasks in breast imaging, including cancer diagnosis, pathology localization, structured report generation, and cancer risk prognosis within a single framework. Its alignment between images and text enables both visual and textual interpretability, improving transparency and clinical auditability, which are essential for real-world adoption. We rigorously evaluate Mammo-FM across diagnosis, prognosis, and report-generation tasks in in- and out-of-distribution datasets. Despite operating on native-resolution mammograms and using only one-third of the parameters of state-of-the-art generalist FMs, Mammo-FM consistently outperforms them across multiple public and private benchmarks. These results highlight the efficiency and value of domain-specific foundation models designed around the full spectrum of tasks within a clinical domain and emphasize th
Cancer prognosis is a critical task that involves predicting patient outcomes and survival rates. To enhance prediction accuracy, previous studies have integrated diverse data modalities, such as clinical notes, medical images, and genomic data, leveraging their complementary information. However, existing approaches face two major limitations. First, they struggle to incorporate newly arrived data with varying distributions into training, such as patient records from different hospitals, thus rendering sub-optimal generalizability and limited utility in real-world applications. Second, most multimodal integration methods rely on simplistic concatenation or task-specific pipelines, which fail to capture the complex interdependencies across modalities. To address these, we propose a continually evolving multi-modal foundation model. Extensive experiments on the TCGA dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, highlighting its potential to advance cancer prognosis by enabling robust and adaptive multimodal integration.
Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) affects nearly 10\% of the global population and often progresses to end-stage renal failure. Accurate prognosis prediction is vital for timely interventions and resource optimization. We present a transformer-based framework for predicting CKD progression using multi-modal electronic health records (EHR) from the Seoul National University Hospital OMOP Common Data Model. Our approach (\textbf{ProQ-BERT}) integrates demographic, clinical, and laboratory data, employing quantization-based tokenization for continuous lab values and attention mechanisms for interpretability. The model was pretrained with masked language modeling and fine-tuned for binary classification tasks predicting progression from stage 3a to stage 5 across varying follow-up and assessment periods. Evaluated on a cohort of 91,816 patients, our model consistently outperformed CEHR-BERT, achieving ROC-AUC up to 0.995 and PR-AUC up to 0.989 for short-term prediction. These results highlight the effectiveness of transformer architectures and temporal design choices in clinical prognosis modeling, offering a promising direction for personalized CKD care.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant promise across various natural language processing tasks. However, their application in the field of pathology, particularly for extracting meaningful insights from unstructured medical texts such as pathology reports, remains underexplored and not well quantified. In this project, we leverage state-of-the-art language models, including the GPT family, Mistral models, and the open-source Llama models, to evaluate their performance in comprehensively analyzing pathology reports. Specifically, we assess their performance in cancer type identification, AJCC stage determination, and prognosis assessment, encompassing both information extraction and higher-order reasoning tasks. Based on a detailed analysis of their performance metrics in a zero-shot setting, we developed two instruction-tuned models: Path-llama3.1-8B and Path-GPT-4o-mini-FT. These models demonstrated superior performance in zero-shot cancer type identification, staging, and prognosis assessment compared to the other models evaluated.
Damage prognosis is, arguably, one of the most difficult tasks of structural health monitoring (SHM). To address common problems of damage prognosis, a population-based SHM (PBSHM) approach is adopted in the current work. In this approach the prognosis problem is considered as an information-sharing problem where data from past structures are exploited to make more accurate inferences regarding currently-degrading structures. For a given population, there may exist restrictions on the resources available to conduct monitoring; thus, the current work studies the problem of allocating such resources within a population of degrading structures with a view to maximising the damage-prognosis accuracy. The challenges of the current framework are mainly associated with the inference of outliers on the level of damage evolution, given partial data from the damage-evolution phenomenon. The current approach considers an initial population of structures for which damage evolution is extensively observed. Subsequently, a second population of structures with evolving damage is considered for which two monitoring systems are available, a low-availability and high-fidelity (low-uncertainty) one,
Purpose: Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been extensively utilized for diagnosing and prognosis of several diseases in recent years. This study identifies, appraises and synthesizes published studies on the use of AI for the prognosis of COVID-19. Method: Electronic search was performed using Medline, Google Scholar, Scopus, Embase, Cochrane and ProQuest. Studies that examined machine learning or deep learning methods to determine the prognosis of COVID-19 using CT or chest X-ray images were included. Polled sensitivity, specificity area under the curve and diagnostic odds ratio were calculated. Result: A total of 36 articles were included; various prognosis-related issues, including disease severity, mechanical ventilation or admission to the intensive care unit and mortality, were investigated. Several AI models and architectures were employed, such as the Siamense model, support vector machine, Random Forest , eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and convolutional neural networks. The models achieved 71%, 88% and 67% sensitivity for mortality, severity assessment and need for ventilation, respectively. The specificity of 69%, 89% and 89% were reported for the aforementioned v
Cancer detection and prognosis relies heavily on medical imaging, particularly CT and PET scans. Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have shown promise in tumor segmentation by fusing information from these modalities. However, a critical bottleneck exists: the dependency on CT-PET data concurrently for training and inference, posing a challenge due to the limited availability of PET scans. Hence, there is a clear need for a flexible and efficient framework that can be trained with the widely available CT scans and can be still adapted for PET scans when they become available. In this work, we propose a parameter-efficient multi-modal adaptation (PEMMA) framework for lightweight upgrading of a transformer-based segmentation model trained only on CT scans such that it can be efficiently adapted for use with PET scans when they become available. This framework is further extended to perform prognosis task maintaining the same efficient cross-modal fine-tuning approach. The proposed approach is tested with two well-known segementation backbones, namely UNETR and Swin UNETR. Our approach offers two main advantages. Firstly, we leverage the inherent modularity of the transformer architecture an
Survival prognosis is crucial for medical informatics. Practitioners often confront small-sized clinical data, especially cancer patient cases, which can be insufficient to induce useful patterns for survival predictions. This study deals with small sample survival analysis by leveraging transfer learning, a useful machine learning technique that can enhance the target analysis with related knowledge pre-learned from other data. We propose and develop various transfer learning methods designed for common survival models. For parametric models such as DeepSurv, Cox-CC (Cox-based neural networks), and DeepHit (end-to-end deep learning model), we apply standard transfer learning techniques like pretraining and fine-tuning. For non-parametric models such as Random Survival Forest, we propose a new transfer survival forest (TSF) model that transfers tree structures from source tasks and fine-tunes them with target data. We evaluated the transfer learning methods on colorectal cancer (CRC) prognosis. The source data are 27,379 SEER CRC stage I patients, and the target data are 728 CRC stage I patients from the West China Hospital. When enhanced by transfer learning, Cox-CC's $C^{td}$ val
Whole-Slide Image (WSI) is an important tool for estimating cancer prognosis. Current studies generally follow a conventional cancer-specific paradigm in which each cancer corresponds to a single model. However, this paradigm naturally struggles to scale to rare tumors and cannot leverage knowledge from other cancers. While multi-task learning frameworks have been explored recently, they often place high demands on computational resources and require extensive training on ultra-large, multi-cancer WSI datasets. To this end, this paper shifts the paradigm to knowledge transfer and presents the first preliminary yet systematic study on cross-cancer prognosis knowledge transfer in WSIs, called CROPKT. It comprises three major parts. (1) We curate a large dataset (UNI2-h-DSS) with 26 cancers and use it to measure the transferability of WSI-based prognostic knowledge across different cancers (including rare tumors). (2) Beyond a simple evaluation merely for benchmarking, we design a range of experiments to gain deeper insights into the underlying mechanism behind transferability. (3) We further show the utility of cross-cancer knowledge transfer, by proposing a routing-based baseline ap
Deep learning has enabled breakthroughs in automated diagnosis from medical imaging, with many successful applications in ophthalmology. However, standard medical image classification approaches only assess disease presence at the time of acquisition, neglecting the common clinical setting of longitudinal imaging. For slow, progressive eye diseases like age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG), patients undergo repeated imaging over time to track disease progression and forecasting the future risk of developing disease is critical to properly plan treatment. Our proposed Longitudinal Transformer for Survival Analysis (LTSA) enables dynamic disease prognosis from longitudinal medical imaging, modeling the time to disease from sequences of fundus photography images captured over long, irregular time periods. Using longitudinal imaging data from the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) and Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), LTSA significantly outperformed a single-image baseline in 19/20 head-to-head comparisons on late AMD prognosis and 18/20 comparisons on POAG prognosis. A temporal attention analysis also suggested that, while the most
Deep learning has shown remarkable performance in integrating multimodal data for survival prediction. However, existing multimodal methods mainly focus on single cancer types and overlook the challenge of generalization across cancers. In this work, we are the first to reveal that multimodal prognosis models often generalize worse than unimodal ones in cross-cancer scenarios, despite the critical need for such robustness in clinical practice. To address this, we propose a new task: Cross-Cancer Single Domain Generalization for Multimodal Prognosis, which evaluates whether models trained on a single cancer type can generalize to unseen cancers. We identify two key challenges: degraded features from weaker modalities and ineffective multimodal integration. To tackle these, we introduce two plug-and-play modules: Sparse Dirac Information Rebalancer (SDIR) and Cancer-aware Distribution Entanglement (CADE). SDIR mitigates the dominance of strong features by applying Bernoulli-based sparsification and Dirac-inspired stabilization to enhance weaker modality signals. CADE, designed to synthesize the target domain distribution, fuses local morphological cues and global gene expression in l
Dynamic fluctuations in the wind field to which a wind turbine (WT) is exposed to are responsible for fatigue loads on its components. To reduce structural loads in WTs, advanced control schemes have been proposed. In recent years, prognosis-based lifetime control of WTs has become increasingly important. In this approach, the prognostic controller gains are adapted based on the stateof-health (SOH) of the WT component to achieve the desired lifetime. However, stochastic wind dynamics complicates estimation of the SOH of a WT. More recently, robust controllers have been combined with real-time damage evaluation models to meet prognosis objectives. Most rely on model-based online load cycle counting algorithms to determine fatigue damage, with analytical models providing the degradation estimate. However, most use load measurements that are either unreliable or unavailable in commercial WTs, limiting their practicality. In this contribution, a hybrid prognosis scheme combining data-driven load prediction and model-based damage estimation models for robust lifetime control of commercial WTs is proposed. A data-driven support vector machine (SVM) regression model is trained using load
This paper introduces HuLP, a Human-in-the-Loop for Prognosis model designed to enhance the reliability and interpretability of prognostic models in clinical contexts, especially when faced with the complexities of missing covariates and outcomes. HuLP offers an innovative approach that enables human expert intervention, empowering clinicians to interact with and correct models' predictions, thus fostering collaboration between humans and AI models to produce more accurate prognosis. Additionally, HuLP addresses the challenges of missing data by utilizing neural networks and providing a tailored methodology that effectively handles missing data. Traditional methods often struggle to capture the nuanced variations within patient populations, leading to compromised prognostic predictions. HuLP imputes missing covariates based on imaging features, aligning more closely with clinician workflows and enhancing reliability. We conduct our experiments on two real-world, publicly available medical datasets to demonstrate the superiority and competitiveness of HuLP.
Lung cancer is the primary cause of cancer-related mortality, claiming approximately 1.79 million lives globally in 2020, with an estimated 2.21 million new cases diagnosed within the same period. Among these, Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) is the predominant subtype, characterized by a notably bleak prognosis and low overall survival rate of approximately 25% over five years across all disease stages. However, survival outcomes vary considerably based on the stage at diagnosis and the therapeutic interventions administered. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have revolutionized the landscape of lung cancer prognosis. AI-driven methodologies, including machine learning and deep learning algorithms, have shown promise in enhancing survival prediction accuracy by efficiently analyzing complex multi-omics data and integrating diverse clinical variables. By leveraging AI techniques, clinicians can harness comprehensive prognostic insights to tailor personalized treatment strategies, ultimately improving patient outcomes in NSCLC. Overviewing AI-driven data processing can significantly help bolster the understanding and provide better directions for using such syste