搜索结果：defaults

Extracting from shared resources requires making choices to balance personal profit and sustainability. We present the results of a behavioural experiment wherein we manipulate the default extraction from a finite resource. Participants were exposed to two treatments -- pro-social or self-serving extraction defaults -- and a control without defaults. We examined the persistence of these nudges by removing the default after five rounds. Results reveal that a self-serving default increased the average extraction while present, whereas a pro-social default only decreased extraction for the first two rounds. Notably, the influence of defaults depended on individual inclinations, with cooperative individuals extracting more under a self-serving default, and selfish individuals less under a pro-social default. After the removal of the default, we observed no significant differences with the control treatment. Our research highlights the potential of defaults as cost-effective tools for promoting sustainability, while also advocating for a careful use to avoid adverse effects.

Regional defaults describe the emerging phenomenon that text-to-image (T2I) foundation models used in generative AI are prone to over-proportionally depicting certain geographic regions to the exclusion of others. In this work, we introduce a scalable evaluation for uncovering such regional defaults. The evaluation consists of region hierarchy--based image generation and cross-level similarity comparisons. We carry out an experiment by prompting DALL-E 2, a state-of-the-art T2I generation model capable of generating photorealistic images, to depict a forest. We select forest as an object class that displays regional variation and can be characterized using spatial statistics. For a region in the hierarchy, our experiment reveals the regional defaults implicit in DALL-E 2, along with their scale-dependent nature and spatial relationships. In addition, we discover that the implicit defaults do not necessarily correspond to the most widely forested regions in reality. Our findings underscore a need for further investigation into the geography of T2I generation and other forms of generative AI.

This paper builds a finite-horizon model to study the role of physical collateral in a model of strategic defaults, when the borrower can develop reputation for honesty. Asset ownership increases attractiveness of the reputational channel: the borrower who would prefer to remain in autarky in the absence of the asset prefers to apply for collateralized debt. Pledging the asset as collateral facilitates reputation building, which is especially successful at the times of asset price drops, because these are the times when default is most tempting. The complementarity between secured and unsecured lending is especially pronounced when the ratio of the borrower's financial to non-financial income is neither too large nor too small.

There is much interest in providing probabilistic semantics for defaults but most approaches seem to suffer from one of two problems: either they require numbers, a problem defaults were intended to avoid, or they generate peculiar side effects. Rather than provide semantics for defaults, we address the problem defaults were intended to solve: that of reasoning under uncertainty where numeric probability distributions are not available. We describe a non-numeric formalism called an inference graph based on standard probability theory, conditional independence and sentences of favouring where a favours b - favours(a, b) - p(a|b) > p(a). The formalism seems to handle the examples from the nonmonotonic literature. Most importantly, the sentences of our system can be verified by performing an appropriate experiment in the semantic domain.

We propose a simple non-equilibrium model of a financial market as an open system with a possible exchange of money with an outside world and market frictions (trade impacts) incorporated into asset price dynamics via a feedback mechanism. Using a linear market impact model, this produces a non-linear two-parametric extension of the classical Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, that we call the "Quantum Equilibrium-Disequilibrium" (QED) model. The QED model gives rise to non-linear mean-reverting dynamics, broken scale invariance, and corporate defaults. In the simplest one-stock (1D) formulation, our parsimonious model has only one degree of freedom, yet calibrates to both equity returns and credit default swap spreads. Defaults and market crashes are associated with dissipative tunneling events, and correspond to instanton (saddle-point) solutions of the model. When market frictions and inflows/outflows of money are neglected altogether, "classical" GBM scale-invariant dynamics with an exponential asset growth and without defaults are formally recovered from the QED dynamics. However, we argue that this is only a formal mathematical limit, and in reality the GBM limit is non-a

This article extends the autoregressive count time series model class by allowing for a model with regimes, that is, some of the parameters in the model depend on the state of an unobserved Markov chain. We develop a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator by adapting the extended Hamilton-Grey algorithm for the Poisson log-linear autoregressive model, and we perform a simulation study to check the finite sample behaviour of the estimator. The motivation for the model comes from the study of corporate defaults, in particular the study of default clustering. We provide evidence that time series of counts of US monthly corporate defaults consists of two regimes and that the so-called contagion effect, that is current defaults affect the probability of other firms defaulting in the future, is present in one of these regimes, even after controlling for financial and economic covariates. We further find evidence for that the covariate effects are different in each of the two regimes. Our results imply that the notion of contagion in the default count process is time-dependent, and thus more dynamic than previously believed.

Motivated by the detection of cascades of defaults in economy, we developed a detection framework for an endogenous spreading based on causal motifs we define in this paper. We assume that the change of state of a vertex can be triggered by an endogenous or an exogenous event, that the underlying network is directed and that times when vertices changed their states are available. In addition to the data of company defaults, we also simulate cascades driven by different stochastic processes on different synthetic networks. We show that some of the smallest motifs can robustly detect endogenous spreading events. Finally, we apply the method to the data of defaults of Croatian companies and observe the time window in which an endogenous cascade was likely happening.

We show how to transform any set of prioritized propositional defaults into an equivalent set of parallel (i.e., unprioritized) defaults, in circumscription. We give an algorithm to implement the transform. We show how to use the transform algorithm as a generator of a whole family of inferencing algorithms for circumscription. The method is to employ the transform algorithm as a front end to any inferencing algorithm, e.g., one of the previously available, that handles the parallel (empty) case of prioritization. Our algorithms provide not just coverage of a new expressive class, but also alternatives to previous algorithms for implementing the previously covered class (?layered?) of prioritization. In particular, we give a new query-answering algorithm for prioritized cirumscription which is sound and complete for the full expressive class of unrestricted finite prioritization partial orders, for propositional defaults (or minimized predicates). By contrast, previous algorithms required that the prioritization partial order be layered, i.e., structured similar to the system of rank in the military. Our algorithm enables, for the first time, the implementation of the most useful c

We consider a dynamic model of interconnected banks. New banks can emerge, and existing banks can default, creating a birth-and-death setup. Microscopically, banks evolve as independent geometric Brownian motions. Systemic effects are captured through default contagion: as one bank defaults, reserves of other banks are reduced by a random proportion. After examining the long-term stability of this system, we investigate mean-field limits as the number of banks tends to infinity. Our main results concern the measure-valued scaling limit which is governed by a McKean-Vlasov jump-diffusion. The default impact creates a mean-field drift, while the births and defaults introduce jump terms tied to the current distribution of the process. Individual dynamics in the limit is described by the propagation of chaos phenomenon. In certain cases, we explicitly characterize the limiting average reserves.

Recent work in psychology and experimental philosophy has shown that judgments of actual causation are often influenced by consideration of defaults, typicality, and normality. A number of philosophers and computer scientists have also suggested that an appeal to such factors can help deal with problems facing existing accounts of actual causation. This paper develops a flexible formal framework for incorporating defaults, typicality, and normality into an account of actual causation. The resulting account takes actual causation to be both graded and comparative. We then show how our account would handle a number of standard cases.

We study how governments promote social welfare through the design of contracting environments. We model the regulation of contracting as default delegation: the government chooses a delegation set of contract terms it is willing to enforce, and influences the default terms that serve as outside options in parties' negotiations. Our analysis shows that limiting the delegation set principally mitigates externalities, while default terms primarily achieve distributional objectives. Applying our model to the regulation of labor contracts, we derive comparative statics on the optimal default delegation policy. As equity concerns or externalities increase, in-kind support for workers increases (e.g. through benefits requirements and public health insurance). Meanwhile, when worker bargaining power decreases away from parity, support for workers increases in cash (e.g. through cash transfers and minimum wage laws).

We study multiple defaults where the global market information is modelled as progressive enlargement of filtrations. We shall provide a general pricing formula by establishing a relationship between the enlarged filtration and the reference default-free filtration in the random measure framework. On each default scenario, the formula can be interpreted as a Radon-Nikodym derivative of random measures. The contagion risks are studied in the multi-defaults setting where we consider the optimal investment problem in a contagion risk model and show that the optimization can be effectuated in a recursive manner with respect to the default-free filtration.

The multiple extension problem arises frequently in diagnostic and default inference. That is, we can often use any of a number of sets of defaults or possible hypotheses to explain observations or make Predictions. In default inference, some extensions seem to be simply wrong and we use qualitative techniques to weed out the unwanted ones. In the area of diagnosis, however, the multiple explanations may all seem reasonable, however improbable. Choosing among them is a matter of quantitative preference. Quantitative preference works well in diagnosis when knowledge is modelled causally. Here we suggest a framework that combines probabilities and defaults in a single unified framework that retains the semantics of diagnosis as construction of explanations from a fixed set of possible hypotheses. We can then compute probabilities incrementally as we construct explanations. Here we describe a branch and bound algorithm that maintains a set of all partial explanations while exploring a most promising one first. A most probable explanation is found first if explanations are partially ordered.

The classical reduced-form and filtration expansion framework in credit risk is extended to the case of multiple, non-ordered defaults, assuming that conditional densities of the default times exist. Intensities and pricing formulas are derived, revealing how information driven default contagion arises in these models. We then analyze the impact of ordering the default times before expanding the filtration. While not important for pricing, the effect is significant in the context of risk management, and becomes even more pronounced for highly correlated and asymmetrically distributed defaults. Finally, we provide a general scheme for constructing and simulating the default times, given that a model for the conditional densities has been chosen.

Many writers have observed that default logics appear to contain the "lottery paradox" of probability theory. This arises when a default "proof by contradiction" lets us conclude that a typical X is not a Y where Y is an unusual subclass of X. We show that there is a similar problem with default "proof by cases" and construct a setting where we might draw a different conclusion knowing a disjunction than we would knowing any particular disjunct. Though Reiter's original formalism is capable of representing this distinction, other approaches are not. To represent and reason about this case, default logicians must specify how a "typical" individual is selected. The problem is closely related to Simpson's paradox of probability theory. If we accept a simple probabilistic account of defaults based on the notion that one proposition may favour or increase belief in another, the "multiple extension problem" for both conjunctive and disjunctive knowledge vanishes.