Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad‐scale forest die‐off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy‐making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortality‐relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO 2 ] and increased water‐use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody‐plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die‐off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high‐confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy‐making communities.
During the past four decades (1960-2000), the United States experienced major transformations in population size, development patterns, economic conditions, and social characteristics. These social, economic, and built-environment changes altered the American hazardscape in profound ways, with more people living in high-hazard areas than ever before. To improve emergency management, it is important to recognize the variability in the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop place-based emergency plans accordingly. The concept of social vulnerability identifies sensitive populations that may be less likely to respond to, cope with, and recover from a natural disaster. Social vulnerability is complex and dynamic, changing over space and through time. This paper presents empirical evidence on the spatial and temporal patterns in social vulnerability in the United States from 1960 to the present. Using counties as our study unit, we found that those components that consistently increased social vulnerability for all time periods were density (urban), race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. The spatial patterning of social vulnerability, although initially concentrated in certain geographic regions, has become more dispersed over time. The national trend shows a steady reduction in social vulnerability, but there is considerable regional variability, with many counties increasing in social vulnerability during the past five decades.
The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the scientific literature relevant to climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The report recognizes the interactions of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies, and integrates across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences. It emphasizes how efforts in adaptation and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions can come together in a process called climate resilient development, which enables a liveable future for biodiversity and humankind. The IPCC is the leading body for assessing climate change science. IPCC reports are produced in comprehensive, objective and transparent ways, ensuring they reflect the full range of views in the scientific literature. Novel elements include focused topical assessments, and an atlas presenting observed climate change impacts and future risks from global to regional scales. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Objective. County‐level socioeconomic and demographic data were used to construct an index of social vulnerability to environmental hazards, called the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for the United States based on 1990 data. Methods. Using a factor analytic approach, 42 variables were reduced to 11 independent factors that accounted for about 76 percent of the variance. These factors were placed in an additive model to compute a summary score—the Social Vulnerability Index. Results. There are some distinct spatial patterns in the SoVI, with the most vulnerable counties clustered in metropolitan counties in the east, south Texas, and the Mississippi Delta region. Conclusion. Those factors that contribute to the overall score often are different for each county, underscoring the interactive nature of social vulnerability—some components increase vulnerability; others moderate the effects.
Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human-environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human-environment systems is presented.
Although descriptive and etiological approaches to psychopathology have made notable advances, they seem to have reached a plateau. After reviewing the six approaches to etiology that now preempt the field—ecological, developmental, learning, genetic, internal environment, and neurophysiological models—a second-order model, vulnerability, is proposed as the common denominator, and methods for finding markers of vulnerability are suggested in the hope of revitalizing the field. It is assumed that exogenous and/or endogenous challengers elicit a crisis in all humans, but depending on the intensity of the elicited stress and the threshold for tolerating it, that is, one's vulnerability, the crisis will either be contained homeostatically or lead to an episode of disorder. Vulnerability and episode stand in a trait-state relation, and markers for each must be provided to distinguish between them.
Social vulnerability refers to the socioeconomic and demographic factors that affect the resilience of communities. Studies have shown that in disaster events the socially vulnerable are more likely to be adversely affected, i.e. they are less likely to recover and more likely to die. Effectively addressing social vulnerability decreases both human suffering and the economic loss related to providing social services and public assistance after a disaster. This paper describes the development of a social vulnerability index (SVI), from 15 census variables at the census tract level, for use in emergency management. It also examines the potential value of the SVI by exploring the impact of Hurricane Katrina on local populations.
OBJECTIVE: Epidemiological studies indicate that experimentation with addictive drugs and onset of addictive disorders is primarily concentrated in adolescence and young adulthood. The authors describe basic and clinical data supporting adolescent neurodevelopment as a biologically critical period of greater vulnerability for experimentation with substances and acquisition of substance use disorders. METHOD: The authors reviewed recent literature regarding neurocircuitry underlying motivation, impulsivity, and addiction, with a focus on studies investigating adolescent neurodevelopment. RESULTS: Adolescent neurodevelopment occurs in brain regions associated with motivation, impulsivity, and addiction. Adolescent impulsivity and/or novelty seeking as a transitional trait behavior can be explained in part by maturational changes in frontal cortical and subcortical monoaminergic systems. These developmental processes may advantageously promote learning drives for adaptation to adult roles but may also confer greater vulnerability to the addictive actions of drugs. CONCLUSIONS: An exploration of developmental changes in neurocircuitry involved in impulse control has significant implications for understanding adolescent behavior, addiction vulnerability, and the prevention of addiction in adolescence and adulthood.
Part 1: Framework and Theory 1. The Challenge of Disasters and Our Approach 2. Disaster Pressure and Release Model 3. Access to Resources and Coping in Adversity Part 2: Vulnerability and Hazard Types 4. Famine and Natural Hazards 5. Biological Hazards 6. Floods 7. Severe Coastal Storms 8. Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Landslides Part 3: Action for Disaster Reduction 9. Vulnerability, Relief and Reconstruction 10. Towards a Safer Environment
▪ Abstract In this review, we highlight new insights into the conceptualization of the vulnerability of social-environmental systems and identify critical points of convergence of what otherwise might be characterized as disparate fields of research. We argue that a diversity of approaches to studying vulnerability is necessary in order to address the full complexity of the concept and that the approaches are in large part complementary. An emerging consensus on the issues of critical importance to vulnerability reduction—including concerns of equity and social justice—and growing synergy among conceptual frameworks promise even greater relevancy and utility for decision makers in the near future. We synthesize the current literature with an outline of core assessment components and key questions to guide the trajectory of future research.
Disaster vulnerability is socially constructed, i.e., it arises out of the social and economic circumstances of everyday living. Most often discussed from the perspective of developing nations, this article extends the argument using American demographic trends. Examples from recent disasters, Hurricane Andrew in particular, illustrate how certain categories of people, such as the poor, the elderly, women-headed households and recent residents, are at greater risk throughout the disaster response process. Knowledge of where these groups are concentrated within communities and the general nature of their circumstances is an important step towards effective emergency management. Emergency planners, policy-makers and responding organisations are encouraged to identify and locate high-risk sectors on Community Vulnerability Maps, integrating this information into GIS systems where feasible. Effective disaster management calls for aggressively involving these neighbourhoods and groups at all levels of planning and response, as well as mitigation efforts that address the root causes of vulnerability.
Presently in its second edition, "At Risk" stands as a primary text in risk and vulnerability studies. The authors focus on the political and economic causes of disaster, arguing that vulnerability is at the foundation of risks and recovery practices. Through focusing on natural hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, and volcanoes, "At Risk" demonstrates how social groups with little economic or political power are the most at risk during times of disaster. The author's "Pressure and Release" model for risk and hazard progression is an interesting addition to disaster scholarship.
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A review of recent research on cognitive processing indicates that biases in attention, memory, and interpretation, as well as repetitive negative thoughts, are common across emotional disorders, although they vary in form according to type of disorder. Current cognitive models emphasize specific forms of biased processing, such as variations in the focus of attention or habitual interpretative styles that contribute to the risk of developing particular disorders. As well as predicting risk of emotional disorders, new studies have provided evidence of a causal relationship between processing bias and vulnerability. Beyond merely demonstrating the existence of biased processing, research is thus beginning to explore the cognitive causes of emotional vulnerability, and their modification.
Stress is a well-known risk factor in the development of addiction and in addiction relapse vulnerability. A series of population-based and epidemiological studies have identified specific stressors and individual-level variables that are predictive of substance use and abuse. Preclinical research also shows that stress exposure enhances drug self-administration and reinstates drug seeking in drug-experienced animals. The deleterious effects of early life stress, child maltreatment, and accumulated adversity on alterations in the corticotropin releasing factor and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (CRF/HPA), the extrahypothalamic CRF, the autonomic arousal, and the central noradrenergic systems are also presented. The effects of these alterations on the corticostriatal-limbic motivational, learning, and adaptation systems that include mesolimbic dopamine, glutamate, and gamma-amino-butyric acid (GABA) pathways are discussed as the underlying pathophysiology associated with stress-related risk of addiction. The effects of regular and chronic drug use on alterations in these stress and motivational systems are also reviewed, with specific attention to the impact of these adaptations on stress regulation, impulse control, and perpetuation of compulsive drug seeking and relapse susceptibility. Finally, research gaps in furthering our understanding of the association between stress and addiction are presented, with the hope that addressing these unanswered questions will significantly influence new prevention and treatment strategies to address vulnerability to addiction.
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
This latest Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will again form the standard reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences, including students, researchers and policy makers in environmental science, meteorology, climatology, biology, ecology, atmospheric chemistry and environmental policy.
Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.
Three criteria for evaluating the possible performance of water resource systems are discussed. These measures describe how likely a system is to fail (reliability), how quickly it recovers from failure (resiliency), and how severe the consequences of failure may be (vulnerability). These criteria can be used to assist in the evaluation and selection of alternative design and operating policies for a wide variety of water resource projects. The performance of a water supply reservoir with a variety of operating policies illustrates their use.
Functionality-specific vulnerabilities, which mainly occur in Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) with specific functionalities, are crucial for software developers to detect and avoid. When detecting individual functionality-specific vulnerabilities, the existing two categories of approaches are ineffective because they consider only the API bodies and are unable to handle diverse implementations of functionality-equivalent APIs. To effectively detect functionality-specific vulnerabilities, we propose APISS, the first approach to utilize API doc strings and signatures instead of API bodies. APISS first retrieves functionality-equivalent APIs for APIs with existing vulnerabilities and then migrates Proof-of-Concepts (PoCs) of the existing vulnerabilities for newly detected vulnerable APIs. To retrieve functionality-equivalent APIs, we leverage a Large Language Model for API embedding to improve the accuracy and address the effectiveness and scalability issues suffered by the existing approaches. To migrate PoCs of the existing vulnerabilities for newly detected vulnerable APIs, we design a semi-automatic schema to substantially reduce manual costs. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation to empirically compare APISS with four state-of-the-art approaches of detecting vulnerabilities and two state-of-the-art approaches of retrieving functionality-equivalent APIs. The evaluation subjects include 180 widely used Java repositories using 10 existing vulnerabilities, along with their PoCs. The results show that APISS effectively retrieves functionality-equivalent APIs, achieving a Top-1 Accuracy of 0.81 while the best of the baselines under comparison achieves only 0.55. APISS is highly efficient: the manual costs are within 10 minutes per vulnerability and the end-to-end runtime overhead of testing one candidate API is less than 2 hours. APISS detects 179 new vulnerabilities and receives 60 new CVE IDs, bringing high value to security practice.