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We consider a stopping problem and its application to the decision-making process regarding the optimal timing of organ transplantation for individual patients. At each decision period, the patient state is inspected and a decision is made whether to transplant. If the organ is transplanted, the process terminates; otherwise, the process continues until a transplant happens or the patient dies. Under suitable conditions, we show that there exists a control limit optimal policy. We propose a smoothed perturbation analysis (SPA) estimator for the gradient of the total expected discounted reward with respect to the control limit. Moreover, we show that the SPA estimator is asymptotically unbiased.
This paper presents a comprehensive review of the last two decades of research on Kidney Exchange Programs (KEPs), systematically categorizing and classifying key contributions to provide readers with a structured understanding of advancements in the field. The review highlights the evolution of KEP methodologies and lays the foundation for our contribution. We propose three mathematical models aimed at improving both the quantity and quality of kidney transplants. Model 1 maximizes the number of transplants by focusing on compatibility based on blood type and PRA, without additional constraints. Model 2 introduces a minimum Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) compatibility threshold to enhance transplant quality, though this leads to fewer matches. Model 3 extends the problem to a Multi-Agent Kidney Exchange Program (MKEP), pooling incompatible donor-recipient pairs across multiple agents, resulting in a higher number of successful transplants while ensuring fairness across agents. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate trade-offs between transplant quantity and quality, with Model 3 striking the optimal balance by leveraging multi-agent collaboration to improve both the number and quality of
Kidney transplantation is the most effective renal replacement therapy for end stage renal disease patients. With the severe shortage of kidney supplies and for the clinical effectiveness of transplantation, patient's life expectancy post transplantation is used to prioritize patients for transplantation; however, severe comorbidity conditions and old age are the most dominant factors that negatively impact post-transplantation life expectancy, effectively precluding sick or old patients from receiving transplants. It would be crucial to design objective measures to quantify the transplantation benefit by comparing the mean residual life with and without a transplant, after adjusting for comorbidity and demographic conditions. To address this urgent need, we propose a new class of semiparametric covariate-dependent mean residual life models. Our method estimates covariate effects semiparametrically efficiently and the mean residual life function nonparametrically, enabling us to predict the residual life increment potential for any given patient. Our method potentially leads to a more fair system that prioritizes patients who would have the largest residual life gains. Our analysis
We introduce Neural Organ Transplantation (NOT), a modular adaptation framework that enables trained transformer layers to function as reusable transferable checkpoints for domain adaptation. Unlike conventional fine-tuning approaches that tightly couple trained parameters to specific model instances and training data, NOT extracts contiguous layer subsets ("donor organs") from pre-trained models, trains them independently on domain-specific data, and saves them as standalone checkpoint files that can be transplanted into compatible recipient models without access to the original training data. Through experiments on three decoder-only transformer architectures spanning 124M to 20B parameters (GPT-2, TinyLlama, and GPT-OSS), we demonstrate that donor transplantation substantially outperforms existing adaptation methods, achieving an order-of-magnitude improvement in perplexity over LoRA while training significantly faster. The method exhibits position dependence, with early insertion positions yielding optimal results. Cross-domain transfer at billion-parameter scale reveals unexpected regularization benefits. These findings demonstrate that transformer middle layers can support ef
Patient life circumstances, including social determinants of health (SDOH), shape both health outcomes and care access, contributing to persistent disparities across gender, race, and socioeconomic status. Liver transplantation exemplifies these challenges, requiring complex eligibility and allocation decisions where SDOH directly influence patient evaluation. We developed an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven framework to analyze how broadly defined SDOH -- encompassing both traditional social determinants and transplantation-related psychosocial factors -- influence patient care trajectories. Using large language models, we extracted 23 SDOH factors related to patient eligibility for liver transplantation from psychosocial evaluation notes. These SDOH ``snapshots'' significantly improve prediction of patient progression through transplantation evaluation stages and help explain liver transplantation decisions including the recommendation based on psychosocial evaluation and the listing of a patient for a liver transplantation. Our analysis helps identify patterns of SDOH prevalence across demographics that help explain racial disparities in liver transplantation decisions. We hi
Patient education materials for solid-organ transplantation vary substantially across U.S. centers, yet no systematic method exists to quantify this heterogeneity at scale. We introduce a framework that grounds the same patient questions in different centers' handbooks using retrieval-augmented language models and compares the resulting answers using a five-label consistency taxonomy. Applied to 102 handbooks from 23 centers and 1,115 benchmark questions, the framework quantifies heterogeneity across four dimensions: question, topic, organ, and center. We find that 20.8% of non-absent pairwise comparisons exhibit clinically meaningful divergence, concentrated in condition monitoring and lifestyle topics. Coverage gaps are even more prominent: 96.2% of question-handbook pairs miss relevant content, with reproductive health at 95.1% absence. Center-level divergence profiles are stable and interpretable, where heterogeneity reflects systematic institutional differences, likely due to patient diversity. These findings expose an information gap in transplant patient education materials, with document-grounded medical question answering highlighting opportunities for content improvement.
We introduce chaos-controlled Reservoir Computing (cc-RC) for living neural cultures: dynamically rich substrates of unique potential for adaptive computation. To account for intrinsic biological variability, cc-RC combines: (i) pre-training identification of each culture's dynamical signature and phase-portrait attractor; (ii) low-power optical chaos control to stabilize spontaneous and stimulus-evoked activity; (iii) readout training within this controlled regime. Across hundreds of neural samples, cc-RC enables robust learning and pattern classification, improving both accuracy and model longevity by approximately 300% over standard RC. We further propose Knowledge Transplant (KT), for which the reservoir map learned by an expert culture is transplanted to an attractor-equivalent student culture, reducing training time to minutes while improving performance. By enabling cross-substrate, reusable learned models, KT paves the way for knowledge accumulation and sharing across neural populations, transcending biological lifespan limits.
Organ transplantation serves as the primary therapeutic strategy for end-stage organ failures. However, allograft rejection is a common complication of organ transplantation. Histological assessment is essential for the timely detection and diagnosis of transplant rejection and remains the gold standard. Nevertheless, the traditional histochemical staining process is time-consuming, costly, and labor-intensive. Here, we present a panel of virtual staining neural networks for lung and heart transplant biopsies, which digitally convert autofluorescence microscopic images of label-free tissue sections into their brightfield histologically stained counterparts, bypassing the traditional histochemical staining process. Specifically, we virtually generated Hematoxylin and Eosin (H&E), Masson's Trichrome (MT), and Elastic Verhoeff-Van Gieson (EVG) stains for label-free transplant lung tissue, along with H&E and MT stains for label-free transplant heart tissue. Subsequent blind evaluations conducted by three board-certified pathologists have confirmed that the virtual staining networks consistently produce high-quality histology images with high color uniformity, closely resembling
The allocation of scarce donor organs constitutes one of the most consequential algorithmic challenges in healthcare. While the field is rapidly transitioning from rigid, rule-based systems to machine learning and data-driven optimization, we argue that current approaches often overlook a fundamental barrier: incentives. In this position paper, we highlight that organ allocation is not merely an optimization problem, but rather a complex game involving organ procurement organizations, transplant centers, clinicians, patients, and regulators. Focusing on US adult heart transplant allocation, we identify critical incentive misalignments across the decision-making pipeline, and present data showing that they are having adverse consequences today. Our main position is that the next generation of allocation policies should be incentive aware. We outline a research agenda for the machine learning community, calling for the integration of mechanism design, strategic classification, causal inference, and social choice to ensure robustness, efficiency, fairness, and trust in the face of strategic behavior from the various constituent groups.
Heart transplantation is a viable path for patients suffering from advanced heart failure, but this lifesaving option is severely limited due to donor shortage. Although the current allocation policy was recently revised in 2018, a major concern is that it does not adequately take into account pretransplant and post-transplant mortality. In this paper, we take an important step toward addressing these deficiencies. To begin with, we use historical data from UNOS to develop a new simulator that enables us to evaluate and compare the performance of different policies. We then leverage our simulator to demonstrate that the status quo policy is considerably inferior to the myopic policy that matches incoming donors to the patient who maximizes the number of years gained by the transplant. Moreover, we develop improved policies that account for the dynamic nature of the allocation process through the use of potentials -- a measure of a patient's utility in future allocations that we introduce. We also show that batching together even a handful of donors -- which is a viable option for a certain type of donors -- further enhances performance. Our simulator also allows us to evaluate the
Liver allograft failure occurs in approximately 20% of liver transplant recipients within five years post-transplant, leading to mortality or the need for retransplantation. Providing an accurate and interpretable model for individualized risk estimation of graft failure is essential for improving post-transplant care. To this end, we introduce the Model for Allograft Survival (MAS), a simple linear risk score that outperforms other advanced survival models. Using longitudinal patient follow-up data from the United States (U.S.), we develop our models on 82,959 liver transplant recipients and conduct multi-site evaluations on 11 regions. Additionally, by testing on a separate non-U.S. cohort, we explore the out-of-distribution generalization performance of various models without additional fine-tuning, a crucial property for clinical deployment. We find that the most complex models are also the ones most vulnerable to distribution shifts despite achieving the best in-distribution performance. Our findings not only provide a strong risk score for predicting long-term graft failure but also suggest that the routine machine learning pipeline with only in-distribution held-out validati
Ensemble learning is a widespread technique to improve the prediction performance of neural networks. However, it comes at the price of increased memory and inference time. In this work we propose a novel model fusion technique called \emph{Neuron Transplantation (NT)} in which we fuse an ensemble of models by transplanting important neurons from all ensemble members into the vacant space obtained by pruning insignificant neurons. An initial loss in performance post-transplantation can be quickly recovered via fine-tuning, consistently outperforming individual ensemble members of the same model capacity and architecture. Furthermore, NT enables all the ensemble members to be jointly pruned and jointly trained in a combined model. Comparing it to alignment-based averaging (like Optimal-Transport-fusion), it requires less fine-tuning than the corresponding OT-fused model, the fusion itself is faster and requires less memory, while the resulting model performance is comparable or better. The code is available under the following link: https://github.com/masterbaer/neuron-transplantation.
Liver transplantation is a life-saving procedure for patients with end-stage liver disease. There are two main challenges in liver transplant: finding the best matching patient for a donor and ensuring transplant equity among different subpopulations. The current MELD scoring system evaluates a patient's mortality risk if not receiving an organ within 90 days. However, the donor-patient matching should also consider post-transplant risk factors, such as cardiovascular disease, chronic rejection, etc., which are all common complications after transplant. Accurate prediction of these risk scores remains a significant challenge. In this study, we used predictive models to solve the above challenges. Specifically, we proposed a deep-learning model to predict multiple risk factors after a liver transplant. By formulating it as a multi-task learning problem, the proposed deep neural network was trained to simultaneously predict the five post-transplant risks and achieve equal good performance by exploiting task-balancing techniques. We also proposed a novel fairness-achieving algorithm to ensure prediction fairness across different subpopulations. We used electronic health records of 160
Each year, thousands of patients in need of heart transplants face life-threatening wait times due to organ scarcity. While allocation policies aim to maximize population-level outcomes, current approaches often fail to account for the dynamic arrival of organs and the composition of waitlisted candidates, thereby hampering efficiency. The United States is transitioning from rigid, rule-based allocation to more flexible data-driven models. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for non-myopic policy optimization in general online matching relying on potentials, a concept originally introduced for kidney exchange. We develop scalable and accurate ways of learning potentials that are higher-dimensional and more expressive than prior approaches. Our approach is a form of self-supervised imitation learning: the potentials are trained to mimic an omniscient algorithm that has perfect foresight. We focus on the application of heart transplant allocation and demonstrate, using real historical data, that our policies significantly outperform prior approaches -- including the current US status quo policy and the proposed continuous distribution framework -- in optimizing for population
The study of disparities in the liver transplantation process may focus on quantifying causal effects, particularly the average, direct, or indirect effects of various social determinants of health on being listed as a candidate for transplant. Selection bias arises when the data sample does not represent the target population, defined here as all individuals referred to the transplant clinic. Listing decisions are made for the subset of patients who complete the evaluation process, who may differ systematically from the referred population. There is evidence that selection is associated with patient characteristics that also impact outcomes. Using data only from the selected population may yield biased causal effect estimates. However, incorporating data from the referred population allows for analytic correction. This correction leverages hypothesized causal relationships among selection, the outcome (getting listed), exposures, and mediators. Using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), we establish graphical conditions under which a reweighted mediation formula identifies effect of interest - direct, indirect, and path-specific effects - in the presence of sample selection. In a clini
Localized subject-driven image editing aims to seamlessly integrate user-specified objects into target scenes. As generative models continue to scale, training becomes increasingly costly in terms of memory and computation, highlighting the need for training-free and scalable editing frameworks.To this end, we propose PosBridge an efficient and flexible framework for inserting custom objects. A key component of our method is positional embedding transplant, which guides the diffusion model to faithfully replicate the structural characteristics of reference objects.Meanwhile, we introduce the Corner Centered Layout, which concatenates reference images and the background image as input to the FLUX.1-Fill model. During progressive denoising, positional embedding transplant is applied to guide the noise distribution in the target region toward that of the reference object. In this way, Corner Centered Layout effectively directs the FLUX.1-Fill model to synthesize identity-consistent content at the desired location. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PosBridge outperforms mainstream baselines in structural consistency, appearance fidelity, and computational efficiency, showcasing it
Prediction models trained under the source distribution do not generalize well to a different target distribution. A valid inference about an unseen data distribution must be anchored by the invariance of certain causal mechanisms that generate the source and target data, however, these structural invariances are non-identifiable from the source data alone. Under mild causal assumptions about the data, we show that the optimal prediction in the target is in fact partially identifiable by the source distribution. The result rests on a simple observation: In any domain, the optimal prediction can be factorized into what we call a pair of abduction and deduction maps, where the abduction map makes inference about some unobserved variables (possibly confounders) from the observed variables and the deduction map predicts the label using both the observed and inferred quantities. Access to large source data pins down the optimal prediction, thus constrains the valid abduction-deduction ensembles that produce it -- a non-identifiability that we call the abduction-deduction entanglement. To leverage this, we parameterize the constrained family using what we call a representation transplant
Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor, and organ data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) since 2018, there is increasing interest in analytical approaches to support clinical decision-making at the time of organ availability. In this study, we benchmark machine learning models that leverage longitudinal waitlist history data for time-dependent, time-to-event modeling of waitlist mortality. We train on 23,807 patient records with 77 variables and evaluate both survival prediction and discrimination at a 1-year horizon. Our best model achieves a C-Index of 0.94 and AUROC of 0.89, significantly outperforming previous models. Key predictors align with known risk factors while also revealing novel associations. Our findings can support urgency assessment and policy refinement in heart transplant decision making.
Liver transplant can be a life-saving procedure for patients with end-stage liver disease. With the introduction of modern immunosuppressive therapies, short-term survival has significantly improved. However, long-term survival has not substantially improved in decades. Consequently, causes of death are now more likely to be due to the toxicities and side-effects of long-term immunosuppression rather than rejection. In order to study the balance of immunosuppression and rejection, we developed the first mechanistic mathematical model of liver transplant and immune system dynamics. We determined key cells and interactions in the model using literature information; we then used sensitivity analysis to determine key pathways driving the health status of the transplanted liver. We found that dynamics related to cytotoxic T cells and IL-2, in addition to the liver itself, are key determinants of liver graft injury. This has significant implications for the use of tests to monitor patients, and therapeutic strategies to prevent or treat liver transplantation rejection. Future work to collect appropriate data and parametrize the model would be valuable in improving our understanding of th
Transfer learning on tabular data is challenging due to disparate feature spaces across domains, in contrast to the homogeneous structures of image and text. Large language models (LLMs) offer a knowledge base to improve the limited effectiveness of cross-domain transfer learning for tabular data. However, LLM performance often stagnates due to subjective text prompts and the computational limitations of in-context learning. We present a novel language-to-tabular context-learning method that uses attention-specific transformer weights, enabling seamless transfer learning across disparate tabular data sets. The LLM attention transplant mechanism facilitates a domain-agnostic transfer learning, eliminating the need for shared features between tables, LLM prompt engineering, and large-scale pretrained models. Our experiments using ten pairs of disjoint source-target data sets and 12 baseline methods demonstrate the superiority of the proposed LLM-attention transplant for transfer learning (LATTLE) method over traditional ML models, state-of-the-art deep tabular architectures, and models trained on thousands to billions of tabular samples. The proposed cross-domain attention transfer d