Mathematical oncology is an interdisciplinary research field where the mathematical sciences meet cancer research. Being situated at the intersection of these two fields makes mathematical oncology highly dynamic, as practicing researchers are incentivised to quickly adapt to both technical and medical research advances. Determining the scope of mathematical oncology is therefore not straightforward; however, it is important for purposes related to funding allocation, education, scientific communication, and community organisation. To address this issue, we here conduct a bibliometric analysis of mathematical oncology. We compare our results to the broader field of mathematical biology, and position our findings within theoretical science of science frameworks. Based on article metadata and citation flows, our results provide evidence that mathematical oncology has undergone a significant evolution since the 1960s marked by increased interactions with other disciplines, geographical expansion, larger research teams, and greater diversity in studied topics. The latter finding contributes to the greater discussion on which models different research communities consider to be valuable
Thanks to the rapidly evolving integration of LLMs into decision-support tools, a significant transformation is happening across large-scale systems. Like other medical fields, the use of LLMs such as GPT-4 is gaining increasing interest in radiation oncology as well. An attempt to assess GPT-4's performance in radiation oncology was made via a dedicated 100-question examination on the highly specialized topic of radiation oncology physics, revealing GPT-4's superiority over other LLMs. GPT-4's performance on a broader field of clinical radiation oncology is further benchmarked by the ACR Radiation Oncology In-Training (TXIT) exam where GPT-4 achieved a high accuracy of 74.57%. Its performance on re-labelling structure names in accordance with the AAPM TG-263 report has also been benchmarked, achieving above 96% accuracies. Such studies shed light on the potential of LLMs in radiation oncology. As interest in the potential and constraints of LLMs in general healthcare applications continues to rise5, the capabilities and limitations of LLMs in radiation oncology decision support have not yet been fully explored.
Purpose: We present an updated study evaluating the performance of large language models (LLMs) in answering radiation oncology physics questions, focusing on the recently released models. Methods: A set of 100 multiple-choice radiation oncology physics questions, previously created by a well-experienced physicist, was used for this study. The answer options of the questions were randomly shuffled to create "new" exam sets. Five LLMs -- OpenAI o1-preview, GPT-4o, LLaMA 3.1 (405B), Gemini 1.5 Pro, and Claude 3.5 Sonnet -- with the versions released before September 30, 2024, were queried using these new exam sets. To evaluate their deductive reasoning ability, the correct answer options in the questions were replaced with "None of the above." Then, the explain-first and step-by-step instruction prompts were used to test if this strategy improved their reasoning ability. The performance of the LLMs was compared with the answers from medical physicists. Results: All models demonstrated expert-level performance on these questions, with o1-preview even surpassing medical physicists with a majority vote. When replacing the correct answer options with 'None of the above', all models exhib
Mechanistic learning, the synergistic combination of knowledge-driven and data-driven modeling, is an emerging field. In particular, in mathematical oncology, the application of mathematical modeling to cancer biology and oncology, the use of mechanistic learning is growing. This review aims to capture the current state of the field and provide a perspective on how mechanistic learning may further progress in mathematical oncology. We highlight the synergistic potential of knowledge-driven mechanistic mathematical modeling and data-driven modeling, such as machine and deep learning. We point out similarities and differences regarding model complexity, data requirements, outputs generated, and interpretability of the algorithms and their results. Then, organizing combinations of knowledge- and data-driven modeling into four categories (sequential, parallel, intrinsic, and extrinsic mechanistic learning), we summarize a variety of approaches at the interface between purely data- and knowledge-driven models. Using examples predominantly from oncology, we discuss a range of techniques including physics-informed neural networks, surrogate model learning, and digital twins. We see that m
Phase I dose escalation trials in oncology generally aim to find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). However, with the advent of molecular targeted therapies and antibody drug conjugates, dose limiting toxicities are less frequently observed, giving rise to the concept of optimal biological dose (OBD), which considers both efficacy and toxicity. The Estimand framework presented in the addendum of the ICH E9(R1) guidelines strengthens the dialogue between different stakeholders by bringing in greater clarity in the clinical trial objectives and by providing alignment between the targeted estimand under consideration and the statistical analysis methods. However, there lacks clarity in implementing this framework in early phase dose optimization studies. This manuscript aims at discussing the Estimand framework for dose optimization trials in oncology considering efficacy and toxicity through utility functions. Such trials should include Pharmacokinetics (PK) data, toxicity data, and efficacy data. Based on these data, the analysis methods used to identify the optimized dose/s are also described. Focusing on optimizing the utility function to estimate the OBD, the population-level summ
In the era of targeted therapy, there has been increasing concern about the development of oncology drugs based on the "more is better" paradigm, developed decades ago for chemotherapy. Recently, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) initiated Project Optimus to reform the dose optimization and dose selection paradigm in oncology drug development. To accommodate this paradigm shifting, we propose a dose-ranging approach to optimizing dose (DROID) for oncology trials with targeted drugs. DROID leverages the well-established dose-ranging study framework, which has been routinely used to develop non-oncology drugs for decades, and bridges it with established oncology dose-finding designs to optimize the dose of oncology drugs. DROID consists of two seamlessly connected stages. In the first stage, patients are sequentially enrolled and adaptively assigned to investigational doses to establish the therapeutic dose range (TDR), defined as the range of doses with acceptable toxicity and efficacy profiles, and the recommended phase 2 dose set (RP2S). In the second stage, patients are randomized to the doses in RP2S to assess the dose-response relationship and identify the optimal dose.
The ICH E9 (R1) Estimands Guidance1 terminology does not completely address the conceptual needs of time-to-event estimands in the complex oncology context. We previously described how censoring and censoring mechanisms for time-to-event endpoints can be embedded into the ICH E9 (R1) Estimands Guidance terminology. This second paper by the Pharmaceutical Industry Working Group on Estimands in Oncology Censoring Mechanisms Subteam discusses special issues in the oncology clinical context that may require different approaches than some other therapeutic areas as well as an extensions of the ICH E9 (R1) guidance. The concept of censoring is discussed in the broader context of occluding events, with occlusion representing any loss to further follow-up and/or removal of further collected data from analysis. Occlusion constitutes a broader concept than the estimand guidance's intercurrent event and terminal event terminology and is appropriate to describe and handle situations like withdrawal from assessments or situations where the requirements of different estimands conflict. We characterize, provide additional details, practical implications, and examples on the application of each es
This research focuses on evaluating and enhancing data readiness for the development of an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) in the context of skin cancer treatment. The study, conducted at the Skin Tumor Center of the University Hospital Münster, delves into the essential role of data quality, availability, and extractability in implementing effective AI applications in oncology. By employing a multifaceted methodology, including literature review, data readiness assessment, and expert workshops, the study addresses the challenges of integrating AI into clinical decision-making. The research identifies crucial data points for skin cancer treatment decisions, evaluates their presence and quality in various information systems, and highlights the difficulties in extracting information from unstructured data. The findings underline the significance of high-quality, accessible data for the success of AI-driven CDSS in medical settings, particularly in the complex field of oncology.
Background: The radiation oncology clinical practice involves many steps relying on the dynamic interplay of abundant text data. Large language models have displayed remarkable capabilities in processing complex text information. But their direct applications in specific fields like radiation oncology remain underexplored. Purpose: This study aims to investigate whether fine-tuning LLMs with domain knowledge can improve the performance on Task (1) treatment regimen generation, Task (2) treatment modality selection (photon, proton, electron, or brachytherapy), and Task (3) ICD-10 code prediction in radiation oncology. Methods: Data for 15,724 patient cases were extracted. Cases where patients had a single diagnostic record, and a clearly identifiable primary treatment plan were selected for preprocessing and manual annotation to have 7,903 cases of the patient diagnosis, treatment plan, treatment modality, and ICD-10 code. Each case was used to construct a pair consisting of patient diagnostics details and an answer (treatment regimen, treatment modality, or ICD-10 code respectively) for the supervised fine-tuning of these three tasks. Open source LLaMA2-7B and Mistral-7B models wer
We present the Radiation Oncology NLP Database (ROND), the first dedicated Natural Language Processing (NLP) dataset for radiation oncology, an important medical specialty that has received limited attention from the NLP community in the past. With the advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), there is an increasing need for specialized datasets and benchmarks to facilitate research and development. ROND is specifically designed to address this gap in the domain of radiation oncology, a field that offers many opportunities for NLP exploration. It encompasses various NLP tasks including Logic Reasoning, Text Classification, Named Entity Recognition (NER), Question Answering (QA), Text Summarization, and Patient-Clinician Conversations, each with a distinct focus on radiation oncology concepts and application cases. In addition, we have developed an instruction-tuning dataset consisting of over 20k instruction pairs (based on ROND) and trained a large language model, CancerChat. This serves to demonstrate the potential of instruction-tuning large language models within a highly-specialized medical domain. The evaluation results in this study could serve as baseline results for
The Project Optimus initiative by the FDA's Oncology Center of Excellence is widely viewed as a groundbreaking effort to change the $\textit{status quo}$ of conventional dose-finding strategies in oncology. Unlike in other therapeutic areas where multiple doses are evaluated thoroughly in dose ranging studies, early-phase oncology dose-finding studies are characterized by the practice of identifying a single dose, such as the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) or the recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D). Following the spirit of Project Optimus, we propose an Multi-Arm Two-Stage (MATS) design for proof-of-concept (PoC) and dose optimization that allows the evaluation of two selected doses from a dose-escalation trial. The design assess the higher dose first across multiple indications in the first stage, and adaptively enters the second stage for an indication if the higher dose exhibits promising anti-tumor activities. In the second stage, a randomized comparison between the higher and lower doses is conducted to achieve proof-of-concept (PoC) and dose optimization. A Bayesian hierarchical model governs the statistical inference and decision making by borrowing information across doses, indic
In oncology, access to patient-level data is often restricted. Synthetic data provides an alternative for analyzing treatment effectiveness, but existing methods for synthetic data generation fail to preserve the causal relationships between covariates, treatments, and outcomes, thereby leading to biased estimates of treatment effects. Here, we introduce OncoSynth, a generative, causally-aware machine learning framework designed to produce synthetic cohorts that enable accurate estimation of population- and patient-level treatment effects. OncoSynth uses a diffusion-based sequential approach to model how covariates influence treatment assignment and how treatment affects survival. We evaluate OncoSynth using large lung (N = 37,128) and breast cancer (N = 17,046) cohorts. Our results show that OncoSynth generates high-fidelity synthetic patient cohorts that preserve real-world patient, treatment, and outcome distributions. Notably, OncoSynth improves treatment effect estimation over existing approaches, by reducing population-level treatment effect error by up to 66%, and patient-level treatment effect error by up to 58%. Thereby, OncoSynth supports reliable evidence generation for
Nowadays, the increase in patient demand and the decline in resources are lengthening patient waiting times in many chemotherapy oncology departments. Therefore, enhancing healthcare services is necessary to reduce patient complaints. Reducing the patient waiting times in the oncology departments represents one of the main goals of healthcare manager. Simulation models are considered an effective tool for identifying potential ways to improve patient flow in oncology departments. This paper presents a new agent-based simulation model designed to be configurable and adaptable to the needs of oncology departments which have to interact with an external pharmacy. When external pharmacies are utilized, a courier service is needed to deliver the individual therapies from the pharmacy to the oncology department. An oncology department located in southern Italy was studied through the simulation model and different scenarios were compared with the aim of selecting the department configuration capable of reducing the patient waiting times.
The potential of large language models in medicine for education and decision making purposes has been demonstrated as they achieve decent scores on medical exams such as the United States Medical Licensing Exam (USMLE) and the MedQA exam. In this work, we evaluate the performance of ChatGPT-4 in the specialized field of radiation oncology using the 38th American College of Radiology (ACR) radiation oncology in-training (TXIT) exam and the 2022 Red Journal Gray Zone cases. For the TXIT exam, ChatGPT-3.5 and ChatGPT-4 have achieved the scores of 63.65% and 74.57%, respectively, highlighting the advantage of the latest ChatGPT-4 model. Based on the TXIT exam, ChatGPT-4's strong and weak areas in radiation oncology are identified to some extent. Specifically, ChatGPT-4 demonstrates better knowledge of statistics, CNS & eye, pediatrics, biology, and physics than knowledge of bone & soft tissue and gynecology, as per the ACR knowledge domain. Regarding clinical care paths, ChatGPT-4 performs better in diagnosis, prognosis, and toxicity than brachytherapy and dosimetry. It lacks proficiency in in-depth details of clinical trials. For the Gray Zone cases, ChatGPT-4 is able to sugg
The application of AI in oncology has been limited by its reliance on large, annotated datasets and the need for retraining models for domain-specific diagnostic tasks. Taking heed of these limitations, we investigated in-context learning as a pragmatic alternative to model retraining by allowing models to adapt to new diagnostic tasks using only a few labeled examples at inference, without the need for retraining. Using four vision-language models (VLMs)-Paligemma, CLIP, ALIGN and GPT-4o, we evaluated the performance across three oncology datasets: MHIST, PatchCamelyon and HAM10000. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to compare the performance of multiple VLMs on different oncology classification tasks. Without any parameter updates, all models showed significant gains with few-shot prompting, with GPT-4o reaching an F1 score of 0.81 in binary classification and 0.60 in multi-class classification settings. While these results remain below the ceiling of fully fine-tuned systems, they highlight the potential of ICL to approximate task-specific behavior using only a handful of examples, reflecting how clinicians often reason from prior cases. Notably, open-source
Artificial intelligence (AI) is about to touch every aspect of radiotherapy from consultation, treatment planning, quality assurance, therapy delivery, to outcomes modeling. There is an urgent need to train radiation oncologists and medical physicists in data science to help shepherd AI solutions into clinical practice. Poorly trained personnel may do more harm than good when attempting to apply rapidly developing and complex technologies. As the amount of AI research expands in our field, the radiation oncology community needs to discuss how to educate future generations in this area. The National Cancer Institute (NCI) Workshop on AI in Radiation Oncology (Shady Grove, MD, April 4-5, 2019) was the first (https://dctd.cancer.gov/NewsEvents/20190523_ai_in_radiation_oncology.htm) of two data science workshops in radiation oncology hosted by the NCI in 2019. During this workshop, the Training and Education Working Group was formed by volunteers among the invited attendees. Its members represent radiation oncology, medical physics, radiology, computer science, industry, and the NCI. In this perspective article written by members of the Training and Education Working Group, we provide
In the past year, there has been a growing trend in applying Large Language Models (LLMs) to the field of medicine, particularly with the advent of advanced language models such as ChatGPT developed by OpenAI. However, there is limited research on LLMs specifically addressing oncology-related queries. The primary aim of this research was to develop a specialized language model that demonstrates improved accuracy in providing advice related to oncology. We performed an extensive data collection of online question-answer interactions centered around oncology, sourced from reputable doctor-patient platforms. Following data cleaning and anonymization, a dataset comprising over 180K+ oncology-related conversations was established. The conversations were categorized and meticulously reviewed by field specialists and clinicians to ensure precision. Employing the LLaMA model and other selected open-source datasets, we conducted iterative fine-tuning to enhance the model's proficiency in basic medical conversation and specialized oncology knowledge. We observed a substantial enhancement in the model's understanding of genuine patient inquiries and its reliability in offering oncology-relate
Multimodal clinical reasoning in the field of gastrointestinal (GI) oncology necessitates the integrated interpretation of endoscopic imagery, radiological data, and biochemical markers. Despite the evident potential exhibited by Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), they frequently encounter challenges such as context dilution and hallucination when confronted with intricate, heterogeneous medical histories. In order to address these limitations, a hierarchical Multi-Agent Framework is proposed, which emulates the collaborative workflow of a human Multidisciplinary Team (MDT). The system attained a composite expert evaluation score of 4.60/5.00, thereby demonstrating a substantial improvement over the monolithic baseline. It is noteworthy that the agent-based architecture yielded the most substantial enhancements in reasoning logic and medical accuracy. The findings indicate that mimetic, agent-based collaboration provides a scalable, interpretable, and clinically robust paradigm for automated decision support in oncology.
Randomized discontinuation design (RDD) is an enrichment strategy commonly used to address limitations of traditional placebo-controlled trials, particularly the ethical concern of prolonged placebo exposure. RDD consists of two phases: an initial open-label phase in which all eligible patients receive the investigational medicinal product (IMP), followed by a double-blind phase in which responders are randomized to continue with the IMP or switch to placebo. This design tests whether the IMP provides benefit beyond the placebo effect. The estimand framework introduced in ICH E9(R1) strengthens the dialogue among clinical research stakeholders by clarifying trial objectives and aligning them with appropriate statistical analyses. However, its application in oncology trials using RDD remains unclear. This manuscript uses the phase III JAVELIN Gastric 100 trial and the phase II trial of sorafenib (BAY 43-9006) as case studies to propose an estimand framework tailored for oncology trials employing RDD in phase III and phase II settings, respectively. We highlight some similarities and differences between RDDs and traditional randomized controlled trials in the context of ICH E9(R1). T
The essence of precision oncology lies in its commitment to tailor targeted treatments and care measures to each patient based on the individual characteristics of the tumor. The inherent heterogeneity of tumors necessitates gathering information from diverse data sources to provide valuable insights from various perspectives, fostering a holistic comprehension of the tumor. Over the past decade, multimodal data integration technology for precision oncology has made significant strides, showcasing remarkable progress in understanding the intricate details within heterogeneous data modalities. These strides have exhibited tremendous potential for improving clinical decision-making and model interpretation, contributing to the advancement of cancer care and treatment. Given the rapid progress that has been achieved, we provide a comprehensive overview of about 300 papers detailing cutting-edge multimodal data integration techniques in precision oncology. In addition, we conclude the primary clinical applications that have reaped significant benefits, including early assessment, diagnosis, prognosis, and biomarker discovery. Finally, derived from the findings of this survey, we presen