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We propose a new method of determining regional and city boundaries based on the Valeriepieris circle, the smallest circle containing a given fraction of the data. By varying the fraction in the circle we can map complex spatial data to a simple model of concentric rings which we then fit to determine natural density cutoffs. We apply this method to population, occupation, economic and transport data from England and Wales, finding that the regions determined by this method affirm well known social facts such as the disproportionate wealth of London or the relative isolation of the North East and South West of England. We then show how different data sets give us different views of the same cities, providing insight into their development and dynamics.
In England, it is anecdotally remarked that the number of Greggs bakeries to be found in a town is a reliable measure of the area's 'Northern-ness'. Conversely, a commercial competitor to Greggs in the baked goods and sandwiches market, Pret-a-Manger, is reputed to be popular in more 'southern' areas of England. Using a Support Vector Machine and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Regression Model, the relative geographical distributions of Greggs and Pret have been utilised for the first time to quantify the North-South divide in England. The calculated dividing lines were each compared to another line, based on Gross Domestic Household Income (GDHI). The lines match remarkably well, and we conclude that this is likely because much of England's wealth is concentrated in London, as are most of England's Pret-a-Manger shops. Further studies were conducted based on the relative geographical distributions of popular supermarkets Morrisons and Waitrose, which are also considered to have a North-South association. This analysis yields different results. For all metrics, the North-South dividing line passes close to the M1 Watford Gap services. As a common British idiom, this location is
The electronic structure of the $f$-based superconductor $\mathrm{CeIr_3}$ was studied by photoelectron spectroscopy. The energy distribution of the $\mathrm{Ce}~4f$ states were revealed by the $\mathrm{Ce}~3d-4f$ resonant photoelectron spectroscopy. The $\mathrm{Ce}~4f$ states were mostly distributed in the vicinity of the Fermi energy, suggesting the itinerant character of the $\mathrm{Ce}~4f$ states. The contribution of the $\mathrm{Ce}~4f$ states to the density of states (DOS) at the Fermi energy was estimated to be nearly half of that of the $\mathrm{Ir}~5d$ states, implying that the $\mathrm{Ce}~4f$ states have a considerable contribution to the DOS at the Fermi energy. The $\mathrm{Ce}~3d$ core-level and $\mathrm{Ce}~3d$ X-ray absorption spectra were analyzed based on a single-impurity Anderson model. The number of the $\mathrm{Ce}~4f$ states in the ground state was estimated to be $0.8-0.9$, which is much larger than the values obtained in the previous studies (i.e., $0-0.4$).
We propose a new approach to identifying geographical clustering and hotspots of inequality from decadal census data. We use diffusion mapping to study the 181,408 Output Areas in England and Wales, which allows us to decompose the feature structures of countries in the census data space. Additionally, we develop a new localization metric inspired by statistical physics to uncover the importance of minority groups in London. The results of our study can be applied to other census-like data constructions that include spatial localization and differentiation from low degrees of freedom. This new approach can help us better understand the patterns of social deprivation and segregation across the country and aid in the development of policies to address these issues.
Background: Trends in hospitalised case-fatality risk (HFR), risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and lengths of stay for patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in England over the pre-vaccination era are unknown. Methods: Data on hospital and ICU admissions with COVID-19 at 31 NHS trusts in England were collected by Public Health England's Severe Acute Respiratory Infections surveillance system and linked to death information. We applied parametric multi-state mixture models, accounting for censored outcomes and regressing risks and times between events on month of admission, geography, and baseline characteristics. Findings: 20,785 adults were admitted with COVID-19 in 2020. Between March and June/July/August estimated HFR reduced from 31.9% (95% confidence interval 30.3-33.5%) to 10.9% (9.4-12.7%), then rose steadily from 21.6% (18.4-25.5%) in September to 25.7% (23.0-29.2%) in December, with steeper increases among older patients, those with multi-morbidity and outside London/South of England. ICU admission risk reduced from 13.9% (12.8-15.2%) in March to 6.2% (5.3-7.1%) in May, rising to a high of 14.2% (11.1-17.2%) in September. Median length of stay in non-critical care i
This note analyzes the physical basis of J.R. England's paper "Statistical physics of self-replication." [J. Chem. Phys. {\bf 139}, 121923(2013)]. We follow England's use of time-reversal symmetry but replace stochastic by deterministic dynamics, and introduce a definition of metastable states based on equilibrium statistical mechanics. We rederive England's detailed balance relation and obtain another similar relation which appears more natural and remains valid for quantum systems. The detailed balance relations are based on serious physical ideas, and either of them can be used for England's biological discussion. This biological discussion does of course deserve further scrutiny.
Based on a two dimensional odd-parity superconducting order parameter for Sr_2RuO_4 with p-wave symmetry, we investigate the single vortex and vortex lattice structure of the mixed phase near H_{c1}. Ginzburg-Landau calculations for a single vortex show a fourfold structure with an orientation depending on the microscopic Fermi surface properties. The corresponding extended London theory is developed to determine the vortex lattice structure and we find near H_{c1} a centered rectangular vortex lattice. As the field is increased from H_{c1} this lattice continuously deforms until a square vortex lattice is achieved. In the centered rectangular phase the field distribution, as measurable through μ-SR experiments, exhibits a characteristic two peak structure (similar to that predicted in high temperature and borocarbide superconductors).
A target to eliminate Human Immuno-deficiency Virus (HIV) transmission in England by 2030 was set in early 2019. Estimates of recent trends in HIV prevalence, particularly the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV, by exposure group, ethnicity, gender, age group and region, are essential to monitor progress towards elimination. A Bayesian synthesis of evidence from multiple surveillance, demographic and survey datasets relevant to HIV in England is employed to estimate trends in: the number of people living with HIV (PLWH); the proportion of these people unaware of their HIV infection; and the corresponding prevalence of undiagnosed HIV. All estimates are stratified by exposure group, ethnicity, gender, age group (15-34, 35-44, 45-59, 60-74), region (London, outside London) and year (2012-2017). The total number of PLWH aged 15-74 in England increased from 82,400 (95% credible interval, CrI, 78,700 to 89,100) in 2012 to 89,500 (95% CrI 87,400 to 93,300) in 2017. The proportion diagnosed steadily increased from 84% (95% CrI 77 to 88%) to 92% (95% CrI 89 to 94%) over the same time period, corresponding to a halving in the number of undiagnosed infections from 13,500 (95% CrI 9
The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic put considerable strain on the national healthcare system in England. In order to predict the effect of the local epidemic on hospital capacity in England, we used a variety of data streams to inform the construction and parameterisation of a hospital progression model, which was coupled to a model of the generalised epidemic. We named this model EpiBeds. Data from a partially complete patient-pathway line-list was used to provide initial estimates of the mean duration that individuals spend in the different hospital compartments. We then fitted EpiBeds using complete data on hospital occupancy and hospital deaths, enabling estimation of the proportion of individuals that follow different clinical pathways, and the reproduction number of the generalised epidemic. The construction of EpiBeds makes it straightforward to adapt to different patient pathways and settings beyond England. As part of the UK response to the pandemic, EpiBeds has provided weekly forecasts to the NHS for hospital bed occupancy and admissions in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.
Bikesharing schemes are transportation systems that not only provide an efficient mode of transportation in congested urban areas, but also improve last-mile connectivity with public transportation and local accessibility. Bikesharing schemes around the globe generate detailed trip data sets with spatial and temporal dimensions, which, with proper mining and analysis, reveal valuable information on urban mobility patterns. In this paper, we study the London bicycle sharing dataset to explore community structures. Using a novel clustering technique, we derive distinctive behavioural patterns and assess community interactions and spatio-temporal dynamics. The analyses reveal self-contained, interconnected and hybrid clusters that mimic London's physical structure. Exploring changes over time, we find geographically isolated and specialized communities to be relatively consistent, while the remaining system exhibits volatility, especially during and around peak commuting times. By increasing our understanding of the collective behaviour of the bikesharing users, this analysis supports policy appraisal, operational decision-making and motivates improvements in infrastructure design and
The prevalence of dementia is set to explode throughout the 21st century. This trend has already started in developed countries and will continue to place heavy pressures on both public health and social care services across the world. No cure for dementia is likely within the foreseeable future, however, medical research highlights the potential to diminish the risk of dementia onset. Over one-third of dementia cases may be preventable if certain risk factors are addressed at the individual, clinical, and population level. This research further explores these modifiable risk factors and quantifies areal risk through the use of a composite index. The index operates at National Health Service Clinical Commission Group level to assess spatial differences across England. Clear spatial patterns are observed between the north and south of the country, and between London and the remainder of the country. The framework adopted in this research provides a firm foundation upon which similar indices could be produced, potentially at finer spatial resolutions, incorporating more informed local knowledge and data on relevant dementia risk factors.
COVID19 was first reported in England at the end of January 2020, and by mid-June over 150,000 cases were reported. We assume that, similarly to influenza-like illnesses, people who suffer from COVID19 may query for their symptoms prior to accessing the medical system (or in lieu of it). Therefore, we analyzed searches to Bing from users in England, identifying cases where unexpected rises in relevant symptom searches occurred at specific areas of the country. Our analysis shows that searches for "fever" and "cough" were the most correlated with future case counts, with searches preceding case counts by 16-17 days. Unexpected rises in search patterns were predictive of future case counts multiplying by 2.5 or more within a week, reaching an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.64. Similar rises in mortality were predicted with an AUC of approximately 0.61 at a lead time of 3 weeks. Thus, our metric provided Public Health England with an indication which could be used to plan the response to COVID19 and could possibly be utilized to detect regional anomalies of other pathogens.
We perform stochastic microsimulations of the dynamics of England and Wales population after the British referendum on EU membership, considering different possible outcomes. Employing available survey data, we model the demographics of the region over the next generation, as shaped by births, deaths and international migration. The migration patterns between England and Wales and the remaining EU countries are modified according to the possible scenarios of their future relations. We find that Brexit will accelerate the overall population ageing and the deepening imbalance between workers and retirees but reduce the population growth and the fraction of women of reproductive age. In the alternative scenarios of remaining in the EU these effects will be partially forestalled by the influx of immigrants from current and prospective EU countries and their children. In all considered scenarios the native British population declines. Our study demonstrates that microsimulations can be a useful tool for designing and evaluating the country's policies in the advent of fundamental transformations.
Monte Carlo simulations show that long-range interactions play a major role in determining the folding rates of 48-mer three-dimensional lattice polymers modelled by the Go potential. For three target structures with different native geometries we found a sharp increase in the folding time when the relative contribution of the long-range interactions to the native state's energy is decreased from ~50% towards zero. However, the dispersion of the simulated folding times depends strongly on the native geometry and Go polymers folding to one of the target structures exhibit folding times spanning three orders of magnitude. We have also found that, depending on the target geometry, a strong geometric coupling may exist between local and long-range contacts meaning that, when this coupling exists, the formation of long-range contacts is forced by the previous formation of local contacts. The absence of a strong geometric coupling leads to kinetics that are more sensitive to the interaction energy parameters; in this case the formation of local contacts is not sufficient to promote the establishment of long-range ones when these are strongly penalized energetically, leading to longer fol
Dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) are excellent targets for indirect dark matter (DM) searches using gamma-ray telescopes because they are thought to have high DM content and a low astrophysical background. The sensitivity of these searches is improved by combining the observations of dSphs made by different gamma-ray telescopes. We present the results of a combined search by the most sensitive currently operating gamma-ray telescopes, namely: the satellite-borne Fermi-LAT telescope; the ground-based imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope arrays H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS; and the HAWC water Cherenkov detector. Individual datasets were analyzed using a common statistical approach. Results were subsequently combined via a global joint likelihood analysis. We obtain constraints on the velocity-weighted cross section $\langle σ\mathit{v} \rangle$ for DM self-annihilation as a function of the DM particle mass. This five-instrument combination allows the derivation of up to 2-3 times more constraining upper limits on $\langle σ\mathit{v} \rangle$ than the individual results over a wide mass range spanning from 5 GeV to 100 TeV. Depending on the DM content modeling, the 95% confidence
The database of Prof. Rogers (1887), which includes wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages, was used to search for a possible influence of solar activity on the wheat market. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by solar cycle variations, and compare expected price fluctuations with price variations recorded in medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between wheat price bursts during years 1249-1703 with statistical properties of the intervals between minimums of solar cycles during years 1700-2000. We show that statistical properties of these two samples are similar, both for characteristics of the distributions and for histograms of the distributions. We analyze a direct link between wheat prices and solar activity in the 17th Century, for which wheat prices and solar activity data (derived from 10Be isotope) are available. We show that for all 10 time moments of the solar activity minimums the observed prices were higher than prices for the correspondent time moments of maximal solar activity (100% sign correlation, on a significance level < 0.2%). We consider these resu
School performance measures are published annually in England to hold schools to account and to support parental school choice. This article reviews and evaluates the Progress 8 secondary school accountability system for state-funded schools. We assess the statistical strengths and weaknesses of Progress 8 relating to: choice of pupil outcome attainment measures; potential adjustments for pupil input attainment and background characteristics; decisions around which schools and pupils are excluded from the measure; presentation of Progress 8 to users, choice of statistical model, and calculation of statistical uncertainty; and issues related to the volatility of school performance over time, including scope for reporting multi-year averages. We then discuss challenges for Progress 8 raised by the COVID-19 pandemic. Six simple recommendations follow to improve Progress 8 and school accountability in England.
Optical dispersion spectra at energies up to 30 eV play a vital role in understanding the chirality-dependent van der Waals London dispersion interactions of single wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs). We use one-electron theory based calculations to obtain the band structures and the frequency dependent dielectric response function from 0-30 eV for 64 SWCNTs differing in radius, electronic structure classification, and geometry. The resulting optical dispersion properties can be categorized over three distinct energy intervals (M, pi, and sigma, respectively representing 0-0.1, 0.1-5, and 5-30 eV regions) and over radii above or below the zone-folding limit of 0.7 nm. While pi peaks vary systematically with radius for a given electronic structure type, peaks are independent of tube radius above the zone folding limit and depend entirely on SWCNT geometry. Based on these calculated one-electron dielectric response functions we compute and review Van derWaals - London dispersion spectra, full spectral Hamaker coefficients, and van derWaals - London dispersion interaction energies for all calculated frequency dependent dielectric response functions. Our results are categorized using a new
Among the problems still open in the study of stellar structure, we discuss in particular some issues related to the study of convection. We have recently built up complete stellar models, adopting a consistent formulation of convection both in the non gray atmosphere and in the interior, to be used for non adiabatic pulsational analysis, and discuss in some details two problems which have been clarified by these models: the physical interpretation of one of the main sequence "Boehm-Vitense gaps", and the necessity of parametrizing pre main sequence convection differently from the main sequence convection. We also report preliminary results of the application to the solar model of the non--local turbulence equations by Canuto and Dubovikov (1998) in the down-gradient approximation.
This article reformulates a common illness-death model in terms of a new system of stochastical differential equations (SDEs). The SDEs are used to estimate epidemiological characteristics and burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in England and Wales in 1995.