搜索结果：Psychometrika

The association between a continuous and an ordinal variable is commonly modeled through the polyserial correlation model. However, this model, which is based on a partially-latent normality assumption, may be misspecified in practice, due to, for example (but not limited to), outliers or careless responses. The typically used maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is highly susceptible to such misspecification: One single observation not generated by partially-latent normality can suffice to produce arbitrarily poor estimates. As a remedy, we propose a novel estimator of the polyserial correlation model designed to be robust against the adverse effects of observations discrepant to that model. The estimator leverages density power divergence estimation to achieve robustness by implicitly downweighting such observations; the ensuing weights constitute a useful tool for pinpointing potential sources of model misspecification. The proposed estimator generalizes ML and is consistent as well as asymptotically Gaussian. As price for robustness, some efficiency must be sacrificed, but substantial robustness can be gained while maintaining more than 98% of ML efficiency. We demonstrate our est

Standard structural equation models (SEMs) are often used to identify latent mediators. However, valid inference typically relies on the strong, frequently violated Sequential Ignorability assumption. We introduce the Rank-Preserving Structural Equation Model (RAPSEM), which increases robustness through G-estimation while maintaining the measurement model's integrity through a two-stage method of moments (2SMM) for factor score corrections. RAPSEM replaces the no unmeasured mediator-outcome confounding with the weaker no unobserved effect modification assumption. By leveraging treatment randomization, RAPSEM achieves identification in a manner equivalent to instrumental variable estimation through structurally emerging instruments. Specifically, identification relies on treatment-covariate interactions that influence the mediator but have no direct effect on the outcome, allowing researchers to utilize natural heterogeneity in treatment response as a testable source of identification. We provide a robustness assessment for the core identifying assumption and establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimator. Simulation studies demonstrate that RAPSEM rem

Computerized adaptive tests (CATs) play a crucial role in educational assessment and diagnostic screening in behavioral health. Unlike traditional linear tests that administer a fixed set of pre-assembled items, CATs adaptively tailor the test to an examinee's latent trait level by selecting a smaller subset of items based on their previous responses. Existing CAT frameworks predominantly rely on item response theory (IRT) models with a single latent variable, a choice driven by both conceptual simplicity and computational feasibility. However, many real-world item response datasets exhibit complex, multi-factor structures, limiting the applicability of CATs in broader settings. In this work, we develop a novel CAT system that incorporates multivariate latent traits, building on recent advances in Bayesian sparse multivariate IRT. Our approach leverages direct sampling from the latent factor posterior distributions, significantly accelerating existing information-theoretic item selection criteria by eliminating the need for computationally intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Recognizing the potential sub-optimality of existing item selection rules, which are ofte

With increasingly available computer-based or online assessments, researchers have shown keen interest in analyzing log data to improve our understanding of test takers' problem-solving processes. In this paper, we propose a multi-state survival model (MSM) to action sequence data from log files, focusing on modeling test takers' reaction times between actions, in order to investigate which factors and how they influence test takers' transition speed between actions. We specifically identify the key actions that differentiate correct and incorrect answers, compare transition probabilities between these groups, and analyze their distinct problem-solving patterns. Through simulation studies and sensitivity analyses, we evaluate the robustness of our proposed model. We demonstrate the proposed approach using problem-solving items from the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC).

Empathic accuracy (EA) is the ability to accurately understand another person\textquotesingle s thoughts and feelings, which is crucial for social and psychological interactions. Traditionally, EA is assessed by comparing a perceiver\textquotesingle s moment-to-moment ratings of a target\textquotesingle s emotional state with the target\textquotesingle s own self-reported ratings at corresponding time points. However, misalignments between these two sequences are common due to the complexity of emotional interpretation and individual differences in behavioral responses. Conventional methods often ignore or oversimplify these misalignments, for instance, by assuming a fixed time lag, which can introduce bias into EA estimates. To address this, we propose a novel alignment approach that captures a wide range of misalignment patterns. Our method leverages the square-root velocity framework to decompose emotional rating trajectories into amplitude and phase components. To ensure realistic alignment, we introduce a regularization constraint that limits temporal shifts to ranges consistent with human perceptual capabilities. This alignment is efficiently implemented using a constrained d

Assessing fit in common factor models solely through the lens of mean and covariance structures, as is commonly done with conventional goodness-of-fit (GOF) assessments, may overlook critical aspects of misfit, potentially leading to misleading conclusions. To achieve more flexible fit assessment, we extend the theory of generalized residuals (Haberman & Sinharay, 2013), originally developed for models with categorical data, to encompass more general measurement models. Within this extended framework, we propose several fit test statistics designed to evaluate various parametric assumptions involved in common factor models. The examples include assessing the distributional assumptions of latent variables and functional form assumptions of individual manifest variables. The performance of the proposed statistics is examined through simulation studies and an empirical data analysis. Our findings suggest that generalized residuals are promising tools for detecting misfit in measurement models, often masked when assessed by conventional GOF testing methods.

We present a multidimensional data analysis framework for the analysis of ordinal response variables. Underlying the ordinal variables, we assume a continuous latent variable, leading to cumulative logit models. The framework includes unsupervised methods, when no predictor variables are available, and supervised methods, when predictor variables are available. We distinguish between dominance variables and proximity variables, where dominance variables are analyzed using inner product models, whereas the proximity variables are analyzed using distance models. An expectation-majorization-minimization algorithm is derived for estimation of the parameters of the models. We illustrate our methodology with three empirical data sets highlighting the advantages of the proposed framework. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the algorithm.

It is a well-known issue that in Item Response Theory models there is no closed-form for the maximum likelihood estimators of the item parameters. Parameter estimation is therefore typically achieved by means of numerical methods like gradient search. The present work has a two-fold aim: On the one hand, we revise the fundamental notions associated to the item parameter estimation in 2 parameter Item Response Theory models from the perspective of the complete-data likelihood. On the other hand, we argue that, within an Expectation-Maximization approach, a closed-form for discrimination and difficulty parameters can actually be obtained that simply corresponds to the Ordinary Least Square solution.

Polychoric correlation is often an important building block in the analysis of rating data, particularly for structural equation models. However, the commonly employed maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is highly susceptible to misspecification of the polychoric correlation model, for instance through violations of latent normality assumptions. We propose a novel estimator that is designed to be robust against partial misspecification of the polychoric model, that is, when the model is misspecified for an unknown fraction of observations, such as careless respondents. To this end, the estimator minimizes a robust loss function based on the divergence between observed frequencies and theoretical frequencies implied by the polychoric model. In contrast to existing literature, our estimator makes no assumption on the type or degree of model misspecification. It furthermore generalizes ML estimation, is consistent as well as asymptotically normally distributed, and comes at no additional computational cost. We demonstrate the robustness and practical usefulness of our estimator in simulation studies and an empirical application on a Big Five administration. In the latter, the polychoric

Multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) models have generated increasing interest in the psychometrics literature. Efficient approaches for estimating MIRT models with dichotomous responses have been developed, but constructing an equally efficient and robust algorithm for polytomous models has received limited attention. To address this gap, this paper presents a novel Gaussian variational estimation algorithm for the multidimensional generalized partial credit model (MGPCM). The proposed algorithm demonstrates both fast and accurate performance, as illustrated through a series of simulation studies and two real data analyses.

In exploratory factor analysis, model parameters are usually estimated by maximum likelihood method. The maximum likelihood estimate is obtained by solving a complicated multivariate algebraic equation. Since the solution to the equation is usually intractable, it is typically computed with continuous optimization methods, such as Newton-Raphson methods. With this procedure, however, the solution is inevitably dependent on the estimation algorithm and initial value since the log-likelihood function is highly non-concave. Particularly, the estimates of unique variances can result in zero or negative, referred to as improper solutions; in this case, the maximum likelihood estimate can be severely unstable. To delve into the issue of the instability of the maximum likelihood estimate, we compute exact solutions to the multivariate algebraic equation by using algebraic computations. We provide a computationally efficient algorithm based on the algebraic computations specifically optimized for maximum likelihood factor analysis. To be specific, Gröebner basis and cylindrical decomposition are employed, powerful tools for solving the multivariate algebraic equation. Our proposed procedur

Intensive longitudinal data (ILD) collected in mobile health (mHealth) studies contain rich information on multiple outcomes measured frequently over time that have the potential to capture short-term and long-term dynamics. Motivated by an mHealth study of smoking cessation in which participants self-report the intensity of many emotions multiple times per day, we describe a dynamic factor model that summarizes the ILD as a low-dimensional, interpretable latent process. This model consists of two submodels: (i) a measurement submodel--a factor model--that summarizes the multivariate longitudinal outcome as lower-dimensional latent variables and (ii) a structural submodel--an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) stochastic process--that captures the temporal dynamics of the multivariate latent process in continuous time. We derive a closed-form likelihood for the marginal distribution of the outcome and the computationally-simpler sparse precision matrix for the OU process. We propose a block coordinate descent algorithm for estimation. Finally, we apply our method to the mHealth data to summarize the dynamics of 18 different emotions as two latent processes. These latent processes are interpre

The Ising model has become a popular psychometric model for analyzing item response data. The statistical inference of the Ising model is typically carried out via a pseudo-likelihood, as the standard likelihood approach suffers from a high computational cost when there are many variables (i.e., items). Unfortunately, the presence of missing values can hinder the use of pseudo-likelihood, and a listwise deletion approach for missing data treatment may introduce a substantial bias into the estimation and sometimes yield misleading interpretations. This paper proposes a conditional Bayesian framework for Ising network analysis with missing data, which integrates a pseudo-likelihood approach with iterative data imputation. An asymptotic theory is established for the method. Furthermore, a computationally efficient {P{ó}lya}-Gamma data augmentation procedure is proposed to streamline the sampling of model parameters. The method's performance is shown through simulations and a real-world application to data on major depressive and generalized anxiety disorders from the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC).

This paper presents a machine learning approach to multidimensional item response theory (MIRT), a class of latent factor models that can be used to model and predict student performance from observed assessment data. Inspired by collaborative filtering, we define a general class of models that includes many MIRT models. We discuss the use of penalized joint maximum likelihood (JML) to estimate individual models and cross-validation to select the best performing model. This model evaluation process can be optimized using batching techniques, such that even sparse large-scale data can be analyzed efficiently. We illustrate our approach with simulated and real data, including an example from a massive open online course (MOOC). The high-dimensional model fit to this large and sparse dataset does not lend itself well to traditional methods of factor interpretation. By analogy to recommender-system applications, we propose an alternative "validation" of the factor model, using auxiliary information about the popularity of items consulted during an open-book exam in the course.

Cognitive Diagnosis Models (CDMs) provide a powerful statistical and psychometric tool for researchers and practitioners to learn fine-grained diagnostic information about respondents' latent attributes. There has been a growing interest in the use of CDMs for polytomous response data, as more and more items with multiple response options become widely used. Similar to many latent variable models, the identifiability of CDMs is critical for accurate parameter estimation and valid statistical inference. However, the existing identifiability results are primarily focused on binary response models and have not adequately addressed the identifiability of CDMs with polytomous responses. This paper addresses this gap by presenting sufficient and necessary conditions for the identifiability of the widely used DINA model with polytomous responses, with the aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of the identifiability of CDMs with polytomous responses and to inform future research in this field.

We propose a two-step estimator for multilevel latent class analysis (LCA) with covariates. The measurement model for observed items is estimated in its first step, and in the second step covariates are added in the model, keeping the measurement model parameters fixed. We discuss model identification, and derive an Expectation Maximization algorithm for efficient implementation of the estimator. By means of an extensive simulation study we show that (i) this approach performs similarly to existing stepwise estimators for multilevel LCA but with much reduced computing time, and (ii) it yields approximately unbiased parameter estimates with a negligible loss of efficiency compared to the one-step estimator. The proposal is illustrated with a cross-national analysis of predictors of citizenship norms.

Nonparametric item response models provide a flexible framework in psychological and educational measurements. Douglas (2001) established asymptotic identifiability for a class of models with nonparametric response functions for long assessments. Nevertheless, the model class examined in Douglas (2001) excludes several popular parametric item response models. This limitation can hinder the applications in which nonparametric and parametric models are compared, such as evaluating model goodness-of-fit. To address this issue, We consider an extended nonparametric model class that encompasses most parametric models and establish asymptotic identifiability. The results bridge the parametric and nonparametric item response models and provide a solid theoretical foundation for the applications of nonparametric item response models for assessments with many items.

Ensuring fairness in instruments like survey questionnaires or educational tests is crucial. One way to address this is by a Differential Item Functioning (DIF) analysis, which examines if different subgroups respond differently to a particular item, controlling for their overall latent construct level. DIF analysis is typically conducted to assess measurement invariance at the item level. Traditional DIF analysis methods require knowing the comparison groups (reference and focal groups) and anchor items (a subset of DIF-free items). Such prior knowledge may not always be available, and psychometric methods have been proposed for DIF analysis when one piece of information is unknown. More specifically, when the comparison groups are unknown while anchor items are known, latent DIF analysis methods have been proposed that estimate the unknown groups by latent classes. When anchor items are unknown while comparison groups are known, methods have also been proposed, typically under a sparsity assumption -- the number of DIF items is not too large. However, DIF analysis when both pieces of information are unknown has not received much attention. This paper proposes a general statistica

It is widely believed that a joint factor analysis of item responses and response time (RT) may yield more precise ability scores that are conventionally predicted from responses only. For this purpose, a simple-structure factor model is often preferred as it only requires specifying an additional measurement model for item-level RT while leaving the original item response theory (IRT) model for responses intact. The added speed factor indicated by item-level RT correlates with the ability factor in the IRT model, allowing RT data to carry additional information about respondents' ability. However, parametric simple-structure factor models are often restrictive and fit poorly to empirical data, which prompts under-confidence in the suitablity of a simple factor structure. In the present paper, we analyze the 2015 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) mathematics data using a semiparametric simple-structure model. We conclude that a simple factor structure attains a decent fit after further parametric assumptions in the measurement model are sufficiently relaxed. Furthermore, our semiparametric model implies that the association between latent ability and speed/slown