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Advances in training, post-training, and inference-time methods have enabled frontier reasoning models to win gold medals in math competitions and settle challenging open problems. Gaining trust in the responses of these models requires that natural language proofs be checked for errors. LLM judges are increasingly being adopted to meet the growing demand for evaluating such proofs. While verification is considered easier than generation, what model capability does reliable verification actually require? We systematically evaluate four open-source and two frontier LLMs on datasets of human-graded natural language proofs of competition-level problems. We consider two key metrics: verifier accuracy and self-consistency (the rate of agreement across repeated judgments on the same proof). We observe that smaller open-source models are only up to ~10% behind frontier models in accuracy but they are up to ~25% more inconsistent. Furthermore, we see that verifier accuracy is sensitive to prompt choice across all models. We then demonstrate that the smaller models, in fact, do possess the mathematical capabilities to verify proofs at the level of frontier models, but they struggle to relia

Modern AI systems have been successfully deployed to win medals at international math competitions, assist with research workflows, and prove novel technical lemmas. However, despite their progress at advanced levels of mathematics, they remain stubbornly bad at basic arithmetic, consistently failing on the simple task of adding two numbers. We present a systematic investigation of this phenomenon. We demonstrate empirically that all frontier models suffer significantly degraded accuracy for integer addition as the number of digits increases. Furthermore, we show that most errors made by these models are highly interpretable and can be attributed to either operand misalignment or a failure to correctly carry; these two error classes explain 87.9%, 62.9%, and 92.4% of Claude Opus 4.1, GPT-5, and Gemini 2.5 Pro errors, respectively. Finally, we show that misalignment errors are frequently related to tokenization, and that carrying errors appear largely as independent random failures.

Recent progress in reasoning models has substantially advanced long-horizon mathematical and scientific problem solving, with several systems now reaching gold-medal-level performance on International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) and International Physics Olympiad (IPhO) problems. In this paper, we introduce a simple and unified recipe for converting a post-trained reasoning backbone into a rigorous olympiad-level solver. The recipe first uses a reverse-perplexity curriculum for SFT to instill rigorous proof-search and self-checking behaviors, then scales these behaviors through a two-stage RL pipeline that progresses from RL with verifiable rewards to more delicate proof-level RL, and finally boosts solving performance with test-time scaling. Applying this recipe, we train a 30B-A3B backbone with SFT on around 340K sub-8K-token trajectories followed by 200 RL steps. The resulting model, SU-01, supports stable reasoning on difficult problems with trajectories exceeding 100K tokens, while achieving gold-medal-level performance on mathematical and physical olympiad competitions, including IMO 2025/USAMO 2026 and IPhO 2024/2025. It also demonstrates strong generalization of scientific

Low-dimensional embeddings are widely used as visual summaries of high-dimensional data and to enable downstream scientific discoveries. Yet, popular nonlinear dimension reduction methods, such as t-SNE and UMAP, are often selected based on visual appeal alone and without rigorous quantitative validation. A major reason is that manifold embeddings typically do not provide an out-of-sample map nor an inverse back to the original feature space; this makes held-out validation, the gold standard in supervised learning, all but impossible. To address these challenges, we develop a novel framework, MEDAL (Manifold Embedding Distillation via Autoencoder Learning), which distills a fitted manifold embedding into a reusable encoder--decoder model. MEDAL trains a constrained autoencoder whose bottleneck exactly matches any teacher embedding while the decoder reconstructs the original input; this yields an explicit map for new samples, an approximate inverse, and a pointwise reconstruction-based measure of distortion in the manifold space. This converts static manifold embeddings into models that can be evaluated on held-out data, enabling quantitative validation including comparing different

Agentic systems increasingly automate pieces of AI research. Yet turning underspecified research objectives into runnable, experimentally validated ML systems remains a central bottleneck. We study this operational setting as \emph{long-horizon ML research engineering}: converting a research specification into a runnable ML system through repeated implementation, experimentation, and refinement. The central challenge is to sustain cumulative project progress across heterogeneous stages under delayed, confounded feedback. We introduce AiScientist, a multi-agent system built around thin control over thick state: a lightweight hierarchical research team coordinates through a File-as-Bus workspace that preserves decision-relevant artifacts across roles and invocations. On PaperBench, AiScientist improves over the strongest matched baselines by 9.92 and 11.15 points with Gemini-3-Flash and GLM-5, respectively. On MLE-Bench Lite, it reaches 81.82 Any Medal\% under both backbones, improving over the strongest matched baselines by 4.55 and 16.67 points, and exceeding a Codex/GPT-5.5 xhigh frontier harness reference by 13.64 Any Medal points. Ablations and process analyses show that durable

Recently, the physical capabilities of (M)LLMs have garnered increasing attention. However, existing benchmarks for physics suffer from two major gaps: they neither provide systematic and up-to-date coverage of real-world physics competitions such as physics Olympiads, nor enable direct performance comparison with humans. To bridge these gaps, we present HiPhO, the first benchmark dedicated to high school physics Olympiads with human-aligned evaluation. Specifically, HiPhO highlights three key innovations. (1) Comprehensive Data: It compiles 13 latest Olympiad exams from 2024-2025, spanning both international and regional competitions, and covering mixed modalities that encompass problems spanning text-only to diagram-based. (2) Professional Evaluation: We adopt official marking schemes to perform fine-grained grading at both the answer and step level, fully aligned with human examiners to ensure high-quality and domain-specific evaluation. (3) Comparison with Human Contestants: We assign gold, silver, and bronze medals to models based on official medal thresholds, thereby enabling direct comparison between (M)LLMs and human contestants. Our large-scale evaluation of 30 state-of-th

Evaluating a country's sporting success provides insight into its decision-making and infrastructure for developing athletic talent. The Olympic Games serve as a global benchmark, yet conventional medal rankings can be unduly influenced by population size. We propose a Bayesian ranking scheme to rank the performance of National Olympic Committees by their "long-run" medals-to-population ratio. The algorithm aims to mitigate the influence of large populations and reduce the stochastic fluctuations for smaller nations by applying shrinkage. These long-run rankings provide a more stable and interpretable ordering of national sporting performance across games compared to existing methods.

We show, contrary to the optimism about LLM's problem-solving abilities, fueled by the recent gold medals that were attained, that a problem exists -- Yu Tsumura's 554th problem -- that a) is within the scope of an IMO problem in terms of proof sophistication, b) is not a combinatorics problem which has caused issues for LLMs, c) requires fewer proof techniques than typical hard IMO problems, d) has a publicly available solution (likely in the training data of LLMs), and e) that cannot be readily solved by any existing off-the-shelf LLM (commercial or open-source).

ML engineering agents waste compute rediscovering known techniques because every competition is a cold start. We present HASTE, a hierarchical multi-agent system that organizes cross-competition knowledge into three scope tiers (global, domain, and competition-specific), each coupled to a matching agent level. An orchestrator coordinates domain specialists and promotes learning between tiers via LLM-driven abstraction. A controlled ablation provides evidence for scoped loading: holding a 159-skill inventory constant across 8 competitions, tiered loading achieves a 100% medal rate while flat loading reaches only 62.5%, the same medal rate as loading no skills, and consumes 2x the output tokens. On the full MLE-Bench Lite benchmark (22 Kaggle competitions), HASTE reaches a medal rate of 77.3% using Claude Sonnet 4.6 at 12h per competition; this is a single-seed campaign result, and multi-seed replication is the priority follow-up. In a cold-start run, the system begins with no accumulated skills. In warm-start runs, it reloads skills learned from earlier competitions, using only global and domain-level skills for transfer across competitions. Warm starts use 52% fewer refinement iter

Agents based on large language models (LLMs) for machine learning engineering (MLE) can automatically implement ML models via code generation. However, existing approaches to build such agents often rely heavily on inherent LLM knowledge and employ coarse exploration strategies that modify the entire code structure at once. This limits their ability to select effective task-specific models and perform deep exploration within specific components, such as experimenting extensively with feature engineering options. To overcome these, we propose MLE-STAR, a novel approach to build MLE agents. MLE-STAR first leverages external knowledge by using a search engine to retrieve effective models from the web, forming an initial solution, then iteratively refines it by exploring various strategies targeting specific ML components. This exploration is guided by ablation studies analyzing the impact of individual code blocks. Furthermore, we introduce a novel ensembling method using an effective strategy suggested by MLE-STAR. Our experimental results show that MLE-STAR achieves medals in 64% of the Kaggle competitions on the MLE-bench Lite, significantly outperforming the best alternative.

Existing AutoML systems have advanced the automation of machine learning (ML); however, they still require substantial manual configuration and expert input, particularly when handling multimodal data. We introduce MLZero, a novel multi-agent framework powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) that enables end-to-end ML automation across diverse data modalities with minimal human intervention. A cognitive perception module is first employed, transforming raw multimodal inputs into perceptual context that effectively guides the subsequent workflow. To address key limitations of LLMs, such as hallucinated code generation and outdated API knowledge, we enhance the iterative code generation process with semantic and episodic memory. MLZero demonstrates superior performance on MLE-Bench Lite, outperforming all competitors in both success rate and solution quality, securing six gold medals. Additionally, when evaluated on our Multimodal AutoML Agent Benchmark, which includes 25 more challenging tasks spanning diverse data modalities, MLZero outperforms the competing methods by a large margin with a success rate of 0.92 (+263.6\%) and an average rank of 2.28. Our approach maintains its robu

While task-specific demonstrations show early success in applying large language models (LLMs) to automate some astronomical research tasks, they only provide incomplete views of all necessary capabilities in solving astronomy problems, calling for more thorough understanding of LLMs' strengths and limitations. So far, existing benchmarks and evaluations focus on simple question-answering that primarily tests astronomical knowledge and fails to evaluate the complex reasoning required for real-world research in the discipline. Here, we address this gap by systematically benchmarking five state-of-the-art LLMs on the International Olympiad on Astronomy and Astrophysics (IOAA) exams, which are designed to examine deep conceptual understanding, multi-step derivations, and multimodal analysis. With average scores of 85.6% and 84.2%, Gemini 2.5 Pro and GPT-5 (the two top-performing models) not only achieve gold medal level performance but also rank in the top two among ~200-300 participants in all four IOAA theory exams evaluated (2022-2025). In comparison, results on the data analysis exams show more divergence. GPT-5 still excels in the exams with an 88.5% average score, ranking top 10

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) has moved the frontier from puzzle-solving to science-grade reasoning-the kind needed to tackle problems whose answers must stand against nature, not merely fit a rubric. Physics is the sharpest test of this shift, which binds symbols to reality in a fundamental way, serving as the cornerstone of most modern technologies. In this work, we manage to advance physics research by developing large language models with exceptional physics reasoning capabilities, especially excel at solving Olympiad-level physics problems. We introduce P1, a family of open-source physics reasoning models trained entirely through reinforcement learning (RL). Among them, P1-235B-A22B is the first open-source model with Gold-medal performance at the latest International Physics Olympiad (IPhO 2025), and wins 12 gold medals out of 13 international/regional physics competitions in 2024/2025. P1-30B-A3B also surpasses almost all other open-source models on IPhO 2025, getting a silver medal. Further equipped with an agentic framework PhysicsMinions, P1-235B-A22B+PhysicsMinions achieves overall No.1 on IPhO 2025, and obtains the highest average score over the 13 phy

In the paper, a program strength model was proposed to evaluate the performance of countries across different Olympic events. The model assessed how strong a country's program was in each event and also factored in the influence of past Olympic performances. The final medal counts from the Paris 2024 Olympic Games were used to validate the model and to determine the optimal set of constants using Monte Carlo simulation. Based on this model, a prediction of the final medal counts for the 2028 Olympic Games is also provides for reference.

This paper proposes a novel hybrid model, STGCN-LSTM, to forecast Olympic medal distributions by integrating the spatio-temporal relationships among countries and the long-term dependencies of national performance. The Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolution Network (STGCN) captures geographic and interactive factors-such as coaching exchange and socio-economic links-while the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) module models historical trends in medal counts, economic data, and demographics. To address zero-inflated outputs (i.e., the disparity between countries that consistently yield wins and those never having won medals), a Zero-Inflated Compound Poisson (ZICP) framework is incorporated to separate random zeros from structural zeros, providing a clearer view of potential breakthrough performances. Validation includes historical backtracking, policy shock simulations, and causal inference checks, confirming the robustness of the proposed method. Results shed light on the influence of coaching mobility, event specialization, and strategic investment on medal forecasts, offering a data-driven foundation for optimizing sports policies and resource allocation in diverse Olympic contexts.

This is the story of the first Fields Medal awarded to Lars Ahlfors. It was smuggled out of Finland in 1944, pawned in Sweden during World War II, and returned to Helsinki in 2004. This article is based on an interview with Ahlfors' second daughter Vanessa Gruen, and established biographical sources.