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Over 3 years have passed since the outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a disease associated with a high risk of severe illness and death among older individuals. This period has brought to light regional and social issues, including issues in overall and regional healthcare, that existed before the epidemic. "COVID-19-related frailty" is defined as secondary damage to health caused by inactivity and disconnection from human interaction owing to prolonged isolation among older individuals. Now in its fourth year, COVID-19 cannot be taken lightly, even though it is now a Category 5 infectious disease. Looking at it from the perspective of the Corona (COVID-19)/post-Corona (COVID-19) era and society, it is necessary to reconstruct regional communities in which active residents can resume their activities, a resilient regional society from multiple perspectives, and a medical and care system that can give the public a sense of security, all of which will lead to the development of local communities. Weak healthcare systems in emergencies such as emerging infectious diseases and disasters The COVID-19 pandemic has posed challenges in the management of older individuals in Japan. These challenges are common to those encountered with other emerging infectious diseases and disasters; however, the pandemic has emphasized the vulnerability of older adults. End-of-life care and advance care planning do not function during a contingency The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant effect on the end-of-life (EOL) care of older adults, with the lack of implementation and dysfunction of advance care planning (ACP) identified as the biggest factors. This has made it difficult for this population to share their values, intentions, and life goals with their families and healthcare providers. Inadequate use of information and communication technology and the latest technologies Disparity in the digital field (digital divide) is more pronounced among older individuals. Consequently, the benefits of new technologies, such as digitalization and robotics, have not fully reached older individuals, leading to social isolation and frailty in this population. Various secondary health outcomes have emerged as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic The influence of misinformation and disinformation following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated secondary health outcomes, as excessive isolation in life has become prolonged. The inability of older individuals to screen information is a source of major concern. Furthermore, older adults are generally vulnerable to information technology and often face difficulty in accessing correct information. Lack of human resources in the field of public health The promotion of vaccine development, therapeutic drug development, and measures to prevent serious illnesses among older adults remain major challenges, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic. Information gathering and analysis during normal times are also important issues in the public health, medical care, and nursing care sectors. A shortage of human resources for this purpose has also become evident. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the compilation of a vision for the future of the aging Japanese society from the viewpoint of individual health as well as from a broader viewpoint of the systems in the medical community, local community, and environment. These views will be reflected in the policies (including cross-ministerial flow) of academic associations such as the Japan Geriatrics Society; the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare; the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology; the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism; the Cabinet Office; and various professional organizations. Healthcare systems that respond promptly to other emerging infectious diseases, disasters, and contingencies should be reconstructed As an issue that can commonly arise during the COVID-19 pandemic and other emerging infectious diseases, disasters, and other contingencies, a healthcare system designed for the older population, the most vulnerable segment of the population, must be developed. EOL care and ACP that is fully respected even in a contingency should be accelerated ACP should be implemented from an early stage, so that all parties involved can share values, intentions, and life goals with family members and healthcare personnel such that they are reflected in EOL care. This will enable older individuals to live as they desire until EOL. Use of information and communication technology and new technologies should be promoted to actively build new regional communication Disparities in the digital field (digital divide) must be eliminated to create an environment that enables everyone to benefit from digitalization. Furthermore, new regional communication systems, wherein the perspective of mobility support is key, must be created to prevent social isolation. The secondary health outcomes caused by the COVID-19 disaster among older individuals should be prevented through a multifaceted approach Utmost attention must be paid to preventing the occurrence of secondary health outcomes through a multifaceted approach that includes raising awareness regarding health maintenance and providing appropriate information related to health maintenance. Research in the field of public health must be promoted to strengthen human resource development in this area, with a focus on analyzing information on health, medical care, and long-term care from ordinary times Continuous support must be provided even before the occurrence of emergencies to facilitate basic research that will lead to clinical applications. Researchers at universities and research organizations, in particular, must strive to promote these activities. In addition, the government (local and national governments that have data and the national government that supports research and human resource development) must also commit to playing an important role in such research activities. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2025; 25: 481-490.
Timely and comprehensive analyses of causes of death stratified by age, sex, and location are essential for shaping effective health policies aimed at reducing global mortality. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides cause-specific mortality estimates measured in counts, rates, and years of life lost (YLLs). GBD 2023 aimed to enhance our understanding of the relationship between age and cause of death by quantifying the probability of dying before age 70 years (70q0) and the mean age at death by cause and sex. This study enables comparisons of the impact of causes of death over time, offering a deeper understanding of how these causes affect global populations. GBD 2023 produced estimates for 292 causes of death disaggregated by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2023. We used a modelling tool developed for GBD, the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to estimate cause-specific death rates for most causes. We computed YLLs as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. Probability of death was calculated as the chance of dying from a given cause in a specific age period, for a specific population. Mean age at death was calculated by first assigning the midpoint age of each age group for every death, followed by computing the mean of all midpoint ages across all deaths attributed to a given cause. We used GBD death estimates to calculate the observed mean age at death and to model the expected mean age across causes, sexes, years, and locations. The expected mean age reflects the expected mean age at death for individuals within a population, based on global mortality rates and the population's age structure. Comparatively, the observed mean age represents the actual mean age at death, influenced by all factors unique to a location-specific population, including its age structure. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 250-draw distribution for each metric. Findings are reported as counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2023 include a correction for the misclassification of deaths due to COVID-19, updates to the method used to estimate COVID-19, and updates to the CODEm modelling framework. This analysis used 55 761 data sources, including vital registration and verbal autopsy data as well as data from surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. For GBD 2023, there were 312 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 3 country-years of surveillance data, 51 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 144 country-years of other data types that were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. The initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic caused shifts in long-standing rankings of the leading causes of global deaths: it ranked as the number one age-standardised cause of death at Level 3 of the GBD cause classification hierarchy in 2021. By 2023, COVID-19 dropped to the 20th place among the leading global causes, returning the rankings of the leading two causes to those typical across the time series (ie, ischaemic heart disease and stroke). While ischaemic heart disease and stroke persist as leading causes of death, there has been progress in reducing their age-standardised mortality rates globally. Four other leading causes have also shown large declines in global age-standardised mortality rates across the study period: diarrhoeal diseases, tuberculosis, stomach cancer, and measles. Other causes of death showed disparate patterns between sexes, notably for deaths from conflict and terrorism in some locations. A large reduction in age-standardised rates of YLLs occurred for neonatal disorders. Despite this, neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of global YLLs over the period studied, except in 2021, when COVID-19 was temporarily the leading cause. Compared to 1990, there has been a considerable reduction in total YLLs in many vaccine-preventable diseases, most notably diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and measles. In addition, this study quantified the mean age at death for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality and found noticeable variation by sex and location. The global all-cause mean age at death increased from 46·8 years (95% UI 46·6-47·0) in 1990 to 63·4 years (63·1-63·7) in 2023. For males, mean age increased from 45·4 years (45·1-45·7) to 61·2 years (60·7-61·6), and for females it increased from 48·5 years (48·1-48·8) to 65·9 years (65·5-66·3), from 1990 to 2023. The highest all-cause mean age at death in 2023 was found in the high-income super-region, where the mean age for females reached 80·9 years (80·9-81·0) and for males 74·8 years (74·8-74·9). By comparison, the lowest all-cause mean age at death occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, where it was 38·0 years (37·5-38·4) for females and 35·6 years (35·2-35·9) for males in 2023. Lastly, our study found that all-cause 70q0 decreased across each GBD super-region and region from 2000 to 2023, although with large variability between them. For females, we found that 70q0 notably increased from drug use disorders and conflict and terrorism. Leading causes that increased 70q0 for males also included drug use disorders, as well as diabetes. In sub-Saharan Africa, there was an increase in 70q0 for many non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Additionally, the mean age at death from NCDs was lower than the expected mean age at death for this super-region. By comparison, there was an increase in 70q0 for drug use disorders in the high-income super-region, which also had an observed mean age at death lower than the expected value. We examined global mortality patterns over the past three decades, highlighting-with enhanced estimation methods-the impacts of major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to broader trends such as increasing NCDs in low-income regions that reflect ongoing shifts in the global epidemiological transition. This study also delves into premature mortality patterns, exploring the interplay between age and causes of death and deepening our understanding of where targeted resources could be applied to further reduce preventable sources of mortality. We provide essential insights into global and regional health disparities, identifying locations in need of targeted interventions to address both communicable and non-communicable diseases. There is an ever-present need for strengthened health-care systems that are resilient to future pandemics and the shifting burden of disease, particularly among ageing populations in regions with high mortality rates. Robust estimates of causes of death are increasingly essential to inform health priorities and guide efforts toward achieving global health equity. The need for global collaboration to reduce preventable mortality is more important than ever, as shifting burdens of disease are affecting all nations, albeit at different paces and scales. Gates Foundation.
Reproducibility has become a requirement in the hard sciences, and its adoption is gradually extending to the digital humanities. The FAIR criteria and the publication of data papers are both indicative of this trend. However, the question that arises is whether the strict prerequisites of digital reproducibility serve only to exclude digital humanities from broader humanities scholarship. Instead of adopting a binary approach, an alternative method acknowledges the unique features of the objects, inquiries, and techniques of the humanities, including digital humanities, as well as the social and historical contexts in which the concept of reproducibility has developed in the human sciences. In the first part of this paper, I propose to examine the historical and disciplinary context in which the concept of reproducibility has developed within the human sciences, and the disciplinary struggles involved in this process, especially for art history and literature studies. In the second part, I will explore the question of reproducibility through two art history research projects that utilize various computational methods. I argue that issues of corpus, method, and interpretation cannot be separated, rendering a procedural definition of reproducibility impractical. Consequently, I propose the adoption of 'post-computational reproducibility', which is based on FAIREST criteria as far as digital corpora are concerned (FAIR + Ethics and Expertise, Source mention + Time-Stamp), but extended to include further sources that confirm computational results with other non-computational methodologies.
BACKGROUND: Digital health has the potential to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of health care. However, its adoption in the countries of the Baltic Sea Region varies considerably. In order to improve the diffusion and speed of adoption of this innovation, it is necessary to know the barriers and enablers that improve or hinder the implementation of digital health. METHODS: Based on an international workshop, we conducted guided interviews with 15 experts from 9 countries in the Baltic Sea Region to determine their perceptions of the use of the innovation, barriers to its adoption and enablers. RESULTS: Structural factors such as national income or population density are perceived as less relevant. Instead, cultural values such as future orientation, risk-taking and trust are described as the most important factors in explaining the different rates of adoption between countries in the Baltic Sea Region. Important barriers to rapid adoption of digital health are also federal structures with a high degree of autonomy for regions, as well as a rather strict interpretation of data protection laws. Some interviewees emphasised the role of individuals who make digital health “their child”. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of digital health depends less on economic conditions than on the commitment of policy makers to make it happen. Future developments, in particular artificial intelligence in healthcare, will require an even deeper penetration of digital health, which calls for urgent strategies to overcome the barriers to digital health.
The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into health care has become a crucial element in the digital transformation of health systems worldwide. Despite the potential benefits across diverse medical domains, a significant barrier to the successful adoption of AI systems in health care applications remains the prevailing low user trust in these technologies. Crucially, this challenge is exacerbated by the lack of consensus among experts from different disciplines on the definition of trust in AI within the health care sector. We aimed to provide the first consensus-based analysis of trust in AI in health care based on an interdisciplinary panel of experts from different domains. Our findings can be used to address the problem of defining trust in AI in health care applications, fostering the discussion of concrete real-world health care scenarios in which humans interact with AI systems explicitly. We used a combination of framework analysis and a 3-step consensus process involving 18 international experts from the fields of computer science, medicine, philosophy of technology, ethics, and social sciences. Our process consisted of a synchronous phase during an expert workshop where we discussed the notion of trust in AI in health care applications, defined an initial framework of important elements of trust to guide our analysis, and agreed on 5 case studies. This was followed by a 2-step iterative, asynchronous process in which the authors further developed, discussed, and refined notions of trust with respect to these specific cases. Our consensus process identified key contextual factors of trust, namely, an AI system's environment, the actors involved, and framing factors, and analyzed causes and effects of trust in AI in health care. Our findings revealed that certain factors were applicable across all discussed cases yet also pointed to the need for a fine-grained, multidisciplinary analysis bridging human-centered and technology-centered approaches. While regulatory boundaries and technological design features are critical to successful AI implementation in health care, ultimately, communication and positive lived experiences with AI systems will be at the forefront of user trust. Our expert consensus allowed us to formulate concrete recommendations for future research on trust in AI in health care applications. This paper advocates for a more refined and nuanced conceptual understanding of trust in the context of AI in health care. By synthesizing insights into commonalities and differences among specific case studies, this paper establishes a foundational basis for future debates and discussions on trusting AI in health care.
For more than three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has provided a framework to quantify health loss due to diseases, injuries, and associated risk factors. This paper presents GBD 2023 findings on disease and injury burden and risk-attributable health loss, offering a global audit of the state of world health to inform public health priorities. This work captures the evolving landscape of health metrics across age groups, sexes, and locations, while reflecting on the remaining post-COVID-19 challenges to achieving our collective global health ambitions. The GBD 2023 combined analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 375 diseases and injuries, and risk-attributable burden associated with 88 modifiable risk factors. Of the more than 310 000 total data sources used for all GBD 2023 (about 30% of which were new to this estimation round), more than 120 000 sources were used for estimation of disease and injury burden and 59 000 for risk factor estimation, and included vital registration systems, surveys, disease registries, and published scientific literature. Data were analysed using previously established modelling approaches, such as disease modelling meta-regression version 2.1 (DisMod-MR 2.1) and comparative risk assessment methods. Diseases and injuries were categorised into four levels on the basis of the established GBD cause hierarchy, as were risk factors using the GBD risk hierarchy. Estimates stratified by age, sex, location, and year from 1990 to 2023 were focused on disease-specific time trends over the 2010-23 period and presented as counts (to three significant figures) and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years (to one decimal place). For each measure, 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] were calculated with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile ordered values from a 250-draw distribution. Total numbers of global DALYs grew 6·1% (95% UI 4·0-8·1), from 2·64 billion (2·46-2·86) in 2010 to 2·80 billion (2·57-3·08) in 2023, but age-standardised DALY rates, which account for population growth and ageing, decreased by 12·6% (11·0-14·1), revealing large long-term health improvements. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed 1·45 billion (1·31-1·61) global DALYs in 2010, increasing to 1·80 billion (1·63-2·03) in 2023, alongside a concurrent 4·1% (1·9-6·3) reduction in age-standardised rates. Based on DALY counts, the leading level 3 NCDs in 2023 were ischaemic heart disease (193 million [176-209] DALYs), stroke (157 million [141-172]), and diabetes (90·2 million [75·2-107]), with the largest increases in age-standardised rates since 2010 occurring for anxiety disorders (62·8% [34·0-107·5]), depressive disorders (26·3% [11·6-42·9]), and diabetes (14·9% [7·5-25·6]). Remarkable health gains were made for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, with DALYs falling from 874 million (837-917) in 2010 to 681 million (642-736) in 2023, and a 25·8% (22·6-28·7) reduction in age-standardised DALY rates. During the COVID-19 pandemic, DALYs due to CMNN diseases rose but returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. From 2010 to 2023, decreases in age-standardised rates for CMNN diseases were led by rate decreases of 49·1% (32·7-61·0) for diarrhoeal diseases, 42·9% (38·0-48·0) for HIV/AIDS, and 42·2% (23·6-56·6) for tuberculosis. Neonatal disorders and lower respiratory infections remained the leading level 3 CMNN causes globally in 2023, although both showed notable rate decreases from 2010, declining by 16·5% (10·6-22·0) and 24·8% (7·4-36·7), respectively. Injury-related age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 15·6% (10·7-19·8) over the same period. Differences in burden due to NCDs, CMNN diseases, and injuries persisted across age, sex, time, and location. Based on our risk analysis, nearly 50% (1·27 billion [1·18-1·38]) of the roughly 2·80 billion total global DALYs in 2023 were attributable to the 88 risk factors analysed in GBD. Globally, the five level 3 risk factors contributing the highest proportion of risk-attributable DALYs were high systolic blood pressure (SBP), particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), smoking, and low birthweight and short gestation-with high SBP accounting for 8·4% (6·9-10·0) of total DALYs. Of the three overarching level 1 GBD risk factor categories-behavioural, metabolic, and environmental and occupational-risk-attributable DALYs rose between 2010 and 2023 only for metabolic risks, increasing by 30·7% (24·8-37·3); however, age-standardised DALY rates attributable to metabolic risks decreased by 6·7% (2·0-11·0) over the same period. For all but three of the 25 leading level 3 risk factors, age-standardised rates dropped between 2010 and 2023-eg, declining by 54·4% (38·7-65·3) for unsafe sanitation, 50·5% (33·3-63·1) for unsafe water source, and 45·2% (25·6-72·0) for no access to handwashing facility, and by 44·9% (37·3-53·5) for child growth failure. The three leading level 3 risk factors for which age-standardised attributable DALY rates rose were high BMI (10·5% [0·1 to 20·9]), drug use (8·4% [2·6 to 15·3]), and high FPG (6·2% [-2·7 to 15·6]; non-significant). Our findings underscore the complex and dynamic nature of global health challenges. Since 2010, there have been large decreases in burden due to CMNN diseases and many environmental and behavioural risk factors, juxtaposed with sizeable increases in DALYs attributable to metabolic risk factors and NCDs in growing and ageing populations. This long-observed consequence of the global epidemiological transition was only temporarily interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The substantially decreasing CMNN disease burden, despite the 2008 global financial crisis and pandemic-related disruptions, is one of the greatest collective public health successes known. However, these achievements are at risk of being reversed due to major cuts to development assistance for health globally, the effects of which will hit low-income countries with high burden the hardest. Without sustained investment in evidence-based interventions and policies, progress could stall or reverse, leading to widespread human costs and geopolitical instability. Moreover, the rising NCD burden necessitates intensified efforts to mitigate exposure to leading risk factors-eg, air pollution, smoking, and metabolic risks, such as high SBP, BMI, and FPG-including policies that promote food security, healthier diets, physical activity, and equitable and expanded access to potential treatments, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists. Decisive, coordinated action is needed to address long-standing yet growing health challenges, including depressive and anxiety disorders. Yet this can be only part of the solution. Our response to the NCD syndemic-the complex interaction of multiple health risks, social determinants, and systemic challenges-will define the future landscape of global health. To ensure human wellbeing, economic stability, and social equity, global action to sustain and advance health gains must prioritise reducing disparities by addressing socioeconomic and demographic determinants, ensuring equitable health-care access, tackling malnutrition, strengthening health systems, and improving vaccination coverage. We live in times of great opportunity. Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.
The 2023 iteration of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) estimated prevalence, incidence, and health burden for 375 diseases and injuries, including 12 mental disorders. We assess past, current, and emerging trends in the prevalence and burden of mental disorders across sexes and age groups, for 21 regions, 204 countries and territories, and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, from 1990 to 2023. Mental disorders included in GBD 2023 were anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorders, conduct disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, idiopathic developmental intellectual disability, and a residual category of other mental disorders. A literature review identified epidemiological data for each disorder. These were analysed via a Bayesian meta-regression to estimate prevalence by disorder, sex, age, location, and year. Disorder-specific prevalence was multiplied by disability weights representing the severity of health loss associated with each disorder to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Deaths due to anorexia nervosa were assessed with a Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to estimate deaths by sex, age, location, and year, and then multiplied by the standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). YLDs equalled disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for all mental disorders except anorexia nervosa (the only mental disorder considered as an underlying cause of death in GBD), for which DALYs represented the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We presented prevalence, deaths, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs as counts, age-specific rates per 100 000 population, and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population. We estimated 1·17 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·06-1·31) prevalent cases of mental disorders globally in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised prevalence rate of 14 210·7 cases (12 849·5-15 940·1) per 100 000 population. These estimates represented a 95·5% (75·0-121·2) increase in prevalent cases and 24·2% (11·4-41·4) increase in age-standardised prevalence rate between 1990 and 2023. All mental disorders showed increases in prevalent cases between 1990 and 2023, while notable increases were seen in age-standardised prevalence rates for anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, schizophrenia, and conduct disorder. There were an estimated 171 million (127-228) DALYs due to mental disorders globally across sex and age in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised DALY rate of 2070·5 DALYs (1519·1-2750·5) per 100 000 population. Mental disorders contributed to 6·1% (4·8-7·6) of all-cause DALYs in 2023, making them the fifth leading cause of global DALYs (up from 12th in 1990). DALYs were almost entirely composed of YLDs. Mental disorders were the leading cause of YLDs in 2023 (up from second in 1990), explaining 17·3% (14·8-20·6) of all-cause global YLDs. Leading causes of mental disorder DALYs were anxiety disorders (ranked 11th among the 304 diseases and injuries at Level 4 of the GBD cause hierarchy), major depressive disorder (15th), and schizophrenia (41st). Globally in 2023, mental disorder age-standardised DALY rates were higher among females (2239·6 [1643·7-3014·1] per 100 000) than among males (1900·2 [1399·8-2510·8] per 100 000), and peaked in the 15-19 years age group (2617·3 [1850·6-3696·8] per 100 000). All locations showed increased mental disorder DALY rates in 2023 compared with 1990, ranging across countries and territories from 1302·4 (952·7-1683·7) per 100 000 in Viet Nam to 3555·8 (2661·9-4715·0) per 100 000 in the Netherlands. Across SDI quintiles, DALY rates ranged from 1853·0 (1352·1-2469·3) per 100 000 for middle SDI to 2184·1 (1606·1-2890·3) per 100 000 for high SDI. A significant health burden was imposed by mental disorders in all countries and territories in 2023, irrespective of the health resources available. In some instances, this burden has increased over time and is unevenly distributed across populations. Stronger surveillance systems, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, are required. Additionally, we need more coordinated and inclusive policies to reduce the burden through early treatment and prevention, tailored to sex and age differences across locations. Responding to the mental health needs of our global population, especially those most vulnerable, is an obligation, not a choice. Gates Foundation, Queensland Health, and University of Queensland.
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of mortality and are among the foremost causes of disability globally. CVD burden has continued to increase in most countries since 1990, with trends driven by changing exposures to harmful risk factors, population growth, and population aging. We report estimates of global, national, and subnational CVD burden, including 18 subdiseases and 12 associated modifiable risk factors. We analyzed change in CVD burden from 1990 to 2023 and identified drivers of change including population growth, population aging, and risk factor exposure. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 study, a multinational collaborative research study, quantified burden due to 375 diseases including CVD burden and identified drivers of change from 1990 to 2023 using all available data and statistical models. GBD 2023 estimated the population-level burden of diseases in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. CVDs were the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths estimated in the GBD. As of 2023, there were 437 million (95% UI: 401 to 465 million) CVD DALYs globally, a 1.4-fold increase from the number in 1990 of 320 million (292 to 344 million). Ischemic heart disease, intracerebral hemorrhage, ischemic stroke, and hypertensive heart disease were the leading cardiovascular causes of DALYs in 2023 globally. As of 2023, age-standardized CVD DALY rates were highest in low and low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) settings and lowest in high SDI settings. The number of CVD deaths increased globally from 13.1 million (95% UI: 12.2 to 14.0 million) in 1990 to 19.2 million (95% UI: 17.4 to 20.4 million) in 2023. The number of prevalent cases of CVD more than doubled since 1990, with 311 million (95% UI: 294 to 333 million) prevalent cases of CVD in 1990 and 626 million (95% UI: 591 to 672 million) prevalent cases in 2023 globally. A total of 79.6% (95% UI: 75.7% to 82.5%) of CVD burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors 347 million [95% UI: 318 to 373 million] DALYs in 2023). Globally, high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and air pollution were the modifiable risks responsible for most attributable CVD burden in 2023. Since 1990, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors have had mixed effects on CVD burden, with increases in high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and low physical activity leading to higher burden, while reductions in tobacco usage have mitigated some of these increases. Population growth and population aging were the main drivers of the increasing burden since 1990, adding 128 million (95% UI: 115 to 139 million) and 139 million (95% UI: 126 to 151 million) CVD DALYs to the increase in CVD burden since 1990. CVD remains the leading cause of disease burden and death worldwide with the greatest burden in low, low-middle, and middle SDI regions. Large variation exists in CVD burden even for countries at similar levels of development, a gap explained substantially by known, modifiable risk factors that are inadequately controlled. The decades-long increase in CVD burden was the result of population growth, population aging, and increased exposure to a subset of risk factors led by metabolic risks. Countries will need to adopt effective health system and public health strategies if they are to progress in achieving global goals to reduce the burden of CVD.
The advent of digital technologies has profoundly transformed cultural and heritage sectors, providing new avenues for broader access and interactions with digital collections. This shift has enabled Online Cultural Heritage (OCH) to evolve into an extensive ecosystem. Given the complexity that emerges from these networks and stakeholders, it is crucial to develop a clearer understanding of the extensive terminology used in the sector and establish pathways to deconstruct this complexity. Therefore, this article's aim is threefold: 1) it examines how OCH ecosystems foster the ongoing reinterpretation and recontextualisation of cultural heritage collections through technologic innovations and the Web. In doing so, it highlights the relevance of policy development and the establishment of ethical frameworks that address both human and technical complexities of Cultural Heritage (CH) knowledge; 2) using the Open Archival Information System (OAIS) as a framework and its terminology, the article maps the workflows and socio-technical actors of the OCH ecosystem; and 3) the article applies Callon's Process of Translation, a methodology for understanding how socio-technical networks evolve and use it to critically deconstruct digital infrastructures in OCH. This methodology enables the contextualisation and reinterpretation of cultural narratives across digital platforms, both online and offline, underscoring the dynamic interplay between technology, human agency, and cultural context. We explore how OCH ecosystems and other infrastructural ecosystems aid in preserving and facilitating engagement with open knowledge and research, and function as complex networks of cultural institutions interconnected through knowledge infrastructures. Whilst the paper places the primary approach within UK infrastructures, it provides alternative perspectives from the Global South, particularly Latin America, to contrast and further illustrate a reflection on the current and future challenges behind a sustainable OCH ecosystem, its implications for further networks, and its potential as a model beyond the CH sector. Furthermore, this framework can become paramount to identifying obstacles and opportunities for digital infrastructures, establishing a nuanced understanding of OCH as a core infrastructural element in the generation of knowledge from digital collections or digital infrastructures around the world. Finally, we provide a glossary of terms to establish a common ground between the wide range of parties involved in OCH. CCS CONCEPTS • Digital libraries and archives • Information Integration • Cultural characteristics.
Parkinson disease (PD) impairs gait, balance, and quality of life, and wearable devices have been proposed to support rehabilitation, but evidence for their clinical efficacy remains uncertain. This study aimed to evaluate, within the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) framework, the effects of wearable-device interventions on gait performance, balance, and health-related quality of life in people with PD by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Embase, and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to November 18, 2025, for RCTs in people with PD comparing wearable-device interventions with control conditions. We used Hartung-Knapp random-effects models to pool mean differences (MDs) or standardized mean differences (SMDs) and reported 95% prediction intervals when ≥3 studies were pooled. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias (RoB) tool, and certainty of evidence was rated using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE). Nine RCTs involving 260 participants were included. Wearable devices produced a small improvement in stride length (MD 0.10 meter, 95% CI 0.03-0.17), but there was no clear benefit for the 10-Meter Walk Test time (MD 0.04 second, 95% CI -0.06 to 0.15). Double support time showed no reduction (MD -1.59% gait cycle, 95% CI -3.79 to 0.61). Freezing of gait (Freezing of Gait Questionnaire [FOG-Q] and New Freezing of Gait Questionnaire [NFOG-Q]) did not significantly improve (SMD -0.24, 95% CI -0.72 to 0.24). Motor severity (Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale Part III [UPDRS III]) showed a small, nonsignificant trend favoring wearable devices (MD -2.16 points, 95% CI -4.39 to 0.07). For balance, pooled results from the Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Mini Balance Evaluation Systems Test (Mini-BESTest), and Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment Balance Subscale (POMA balance) suggested a borderline effect (SMD 0.48, 95% CI -0.02 to 0.98). Wearable devices did not meaningfully improve Parkinson Disease Questionnaire (PDQ) scores (SMD -0.28, 95% CI -0.74 to 0.17), EQ-5D utility (MD 0.10, 95% CI -0.24 to 0.44), or Falls Efficacy Scale-International (FES-I) scores (MD -0.04, 95% CI -1.10 to 1.02). Prediction intervals frequently crossed the null, suggesting effects may vary by setting and population. Wearable device interventions for Parkinson disease produced a small improvement on average in stride length, with no consistent benefits for other gait outcomes, balance, or patient-centered outcomes. By integrating ICF mapping with Hartung-Knapp meta-analysis, prediction intervals, and GRADE, and avoiding pooling of conceptually distinct gait measures used in prior reviews, this review clarifies where evidence is most consistent, supports using wearables as adjuncts to rehabilitation, and underscores the need for larger, longer RCTs with standardized outcomes to determine who benefits and how to implement them. PROSPERO CRD42024585686; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/view/CRD42024585686.
The rapid rise of myopia worldwide, particularly in East and Southeast Asia, has implied environmental influences beyond genetics. To address this growing public health concern, the World Health Organization and International Telecommunication Union launched the MyopiaEd program. South Korea, with its high rates of myopia and smartphone use, presented a suitable context for implementing and evaluating the MyopiaEd program. This is the first study to date to evaluate the effectiveness and scalability of the MyopiaEd program in promoting eye health behavior change among parents of children in South Korea. Parents of children aged 7 and 8 years were recruited through an open-access website with a recruitment notice distributed to public elementary schools in Gwangju Metropolitan City. Beginning in September 2022, parents received 42 SMS text messages from the MyopiaEd program over 6 months. This digital trial used a mixed methods approach combining both quantitative and qualitative data collection. Pre- and postintervention surveys were used to assess changes in parental knowledge and behavior regarding myopia prevention. Additionally, semistructured interviews were conducted to explore participants' experiences in depth and receive feedback on program design. Prior to the intervention, the MyopiaEd program design and message libraries were adapted for the Korean context following World Health Organization and International Telecommunication Union guidelines. A total of 133 parents participated in this study, including 60 parents whose children had myopia and 73 parents whose children did not. Both groups reported high engagement and satisfaction with the program. Significant increases in knowledge about myopia were observed in both groups (P<.001). While time spent on near-work activities did not change significantly, parents of children with myopia reported increased outdoor time for their children (P=.048). A substantial increase in eye checkups was observed, with 52 (86.7%) out of 60 children with myopia and 50 (68.5%) out of 73 children without myopia receiving eye examinations following the intervention. Qualitative analysis indicated a shift in parents' attitudes toward outdoor activities, as increased recognition of their benefits prompted positive changes in behavior. However, reducing near-work activities posed challenges due to children's preference for smartphone use during leisure periods and the demands of after-school academies. The credibility of the institution delivering the program enhanced parental engagement and children's adoption of healthy behaviors. Messages that corrected common misconceptions about eye health and provided specific behavioral guidance were regarded as impactful elements of the program. This study demonstrates the MyopiaEd program's potential as a scalable and innovative digital intervention to reduce myopia risk in children. The program's effectiveness provides support for broader adoption and offers valuable insights to inform future myopia prevention policies.
Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by -5·6% (-12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and St Baldrick's Foundation.
To investigate the potential association between prenatal opioid exposure and the risk of neuropsychiatric disorders in children. Nationwide birth cohort study. From 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2020, birth cohort data of pregnant women in South Korea linked to their liveborn infants from the National Health Insurance Service of South Korea were collected. All 3 251 594 infants (paired mothers, n=2 369 322; age 32.1 years (standard deviation 4.2)) in South Korea from the start of 2010 to the end of 2017, with follow-up from the date of birth until the date of death or 31 December 2020, were included. Diagnosis of neuropsychiatric disorders in liveborn infants with mental and behaviour disorders (International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes F00-99). Follow-up continued until the first diagnosis of neuropsychiatric disorder, 31 December 2020 (end of the study period), or the date of death, whichever occurred first. Eight cohorts were created: three cohorts (full unmatched, propensity score matched, and child screening cohorts) were formed, all of which were paired with sibling comparison cohorts, in addition to two more propensity score groups. Multiple subgroup analyses were performed. Of the 3 128 571 infants included (from 2 299 664 mothers), we identified 2 912 559 (51.3% male, 48.7% female) infants with no prenatal opioid exposure and 216 012 (51.2% male, 48.8% female) infants with prenatal opioid exposure. The risk of neuropsychiatric disorders in the child with prenatal opioid exposure was 1.07 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.10) for fully adjusted hazard ratio in the matched cohort, but no significant association was noted in the sibling comparison cohort (hazard ratio 1.00 (0.93 to 1.07)). Prenatal opioid exposure during the first trimester (1.11 (1.07 to 1.15)), higher opioid doses (1.15 (1.09 to 1.21)), and long term opioid use of 60 days or more (1.95 (1.24 to 3.06)) were associated with an increased risk of neuropsychiatric disorders in the child. Prenatal opioid exposure modestly increased the risk of severe neuropsychiatric disorders (1.30 (1.15 to 1.46)), mood disorders, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, and intellectual disability in the child. Opioid use during pregnancy was not associated with a substantial increase in the risk of neuropsychiatric disorders in the offspring. A slightly increased risk of neuropsychiatric disorders was observed, but this should not be considered clinically meaningful given the observational nature of the study, and limited to high opioid dose, more than one opioid used, longer duration of exposure, opioid exposure during early pregnancy, and only to some neuropsychiatric disorders.
Comprehensive, comparable, and timely estimates of demographic metrics-including life expectancy and age-specific mortality-are essential for evaluating, understanding, and addressing trends in population health. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of timely and all-cause mortality estimates for being able to respond to changing trends in health outcomes, showing a strong need for demographic analysis tools that can produce all-cause mortality estimates more rapidly with more readily available all-age vital registration (VR) data. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is an ongoing research effort that quantifies human health by estimating a range of epidemiological quantities of interest across time, age, sex, location, cause, and risk. This study-part of the latest GBD release, GBD 2023-aims to provide new and updated estimates of all-cause mortality and life expectancy for 1950 to 2023 using a novel statistical model that accounts for complex correlation structures in demographic data across age and time. We used 24 025 data sources from VR, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources to estimate all-cause mortality for males, females, and all sexes combined across 25 age groups in 204 countries and territories as well as 660 subnational units in 20 countries and territories, for the years 1950-2023. For the first time, we used complete birth history data for ages 5-14 years, age-specific sibling history data for ages 15-49 years, and age-specific mortality data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems. We developed a single statistical model that incorporates both parametric and non-parametric methods, referred to as OneMod, to produce estimates of all-cause mortality for each age-sex-location group. OneMod includes two main steps: a detailed regression analysis with a generalised linear modelling tool that accounts for age-specific covariate effects such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a population attributable fraction (PAF) for all risk factors combined; and a non-parametric analysis of residuals using a multivariate kernel regression model that smooths across age and time to adaptably follow trends in the data without overfitting. We calibrated asymptotic uncertainty estimates using Pearson residuals to produce 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) and corresponding 1000 draws. Life expectancy was calculated from age-specific mortality rates with standard demographic methods. For each measure, 95% UIs were calculated with the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. In 2023, 60·1 million (95% UI 59·0-61·1) deaths occurred globally, of which 4·67 million (4·59-4·75) were in children younger than 5 years. Due to considerable population growth and ageing since 1950, the number of annual deaths globally increased by 35·2% (32·2-38·4) over the 1950-2023 study period, during which the global age-standardised all-cause mortality rate declined by 66·6% (65·8-67·3). Trends in age-specific mortality rates between 2011 and 2023 varied by age group and location, with the largest decline in under-5 mortality occurring in east Asia (67·7% decrease); the largest increases in mortality for those aged 5-14 years, 25-29 years, and 30-39 years occurring in high-income North America (11·5%, 31·7%, and 49·9%, respectively); and the largest increases in mortality for those aged 15-19 years and 20-24 years occurring in Eastern Europe (53·9% and 40·1%, respectively). We also identified higher than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 5-14 years (87·3% higher in GBD 2023 than GBD 2021 on average across countries and territories over the 1950-2021 period) and for females aged 15-29 years (61·2% higher), as well as lower than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 50 years and older (13·2% lower), reflecting advances in our modelling approach. Global life expectancy followed three distinct trends over the study period. First, between 1950 and 2019, there were considerable improvements, from 51·2 (50·6-51·7) years for females and 47·9 (47·4-48·4) years for males in 1950 to 76·3 (76·2-76·4) years for females and 71·4 (71·3-71·5) years for males in 2019. Second, this period was followed by a decrease in life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic, to 74·7 (74·6-74·8) years for females and 69·3 (69·2-69·4) years for males in 2021. Finally, the world experienced a period of post-pandemic recovery in 2022 and 2023, wherein life expectancy generally returned to pre-pandemic (2019) levels in 2023 (76·3 [76·0-76·6] years for females and 71·5 [71·2-71·8] years for males). 194 (95·1%) of 204 countries and territories experienced at least partial post-pandemic recovery in age-standardised mortality rates by 2023, with 61·8% (126 of 204) recovering to or falling below pre-pandemic levels. There were several mortality trajectories during and following the pandemic across countries and territories. Long-term mortality trends also varied considerably between age groups and locations, demonstrating the diverse landscape of health outcomes globally. This analysis identified several key differences in mortality trends from previous estimates, including higher rates of adolescent mortality, higher rates of young adult mortality in females, and lower rates of mortality in older age groups in much of sub-Saharan Africa. The findings also highlight stark differences across countries and territories in the timing and scale of changes in all-cause mortality trends during and following the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-23). Our estimates of evolving trends in mortality and life expectancy across locations, ages, sexes, and SDI levels in recent years as well as over the entire 1950-2023 study period provide crucial information for governments, policy makers, and the public to ensure that health-care systems, economies, and societies are prepared to address the world's health needs, particularly in populations with higher rates of mortality than previously known. The estimates from this study provide a robust framework for GBD and a valuable foundation for policy development, implementation, and evaluation around the world. Gates Foundation.
Digital competencies of health professionals: German translation and content validation of DigiHealthCom and DigiComInf Abstract: Background: Digitalisation in the healthcare sector places new demands on the skills of healthcare professionals. In German-speaking countries, comprehensive instruments that consider both, individual competencies and organisational aspects, are lacking. The English-language instruments DigiHealthCom (5 Factors, 42 Items) and DigiComInf (3 Factors, 15 Items) measure these dimensions; however, they are not available in German. Aim: Culturally sensitive translation and content validation of both measurement instruments. Methods: The translation followed international guidelines using forward and backward translation to ensure conceptual and semantic equivalence. Two tests were conducted with twelve and seven specifically selected healthcare professionals, respectively, to determine content equivalence (relevance, comprehensibility) and content validity using the Content Validity Index (CVI) at item level (I-CVI) and scale level (S-CVI/Ave). Results: Conceptual equivalence and relevance were supported for all factors. Semantic adjustments were made to eight items in DigiHealthCom. Due to insufficient S-CVI/Ave values for relevance (DigiHealthCom: 0.86; DigiComInf: 0.69) and clarity (0.93; 0.90) 27 items were revised. The second test reached appropriate S-CVI/Ave values for relevance (0.90; 0.76) and clarity (0.97; 0.97). Conclusions: DigiHealthCom and DigiComInf are culturally adapted and content-valid instruments for assessing digital health literacy in German-speaking countries. A follow-up study on measurement equivalence is currently being conducted. Zusammenfassung: Hintergrund: Die Digitalisierung im Gesundheitswesen erfordert neue Kompetenzen von Gesundheitsfachpersonen. Im deutschsprachigen Raum fehlen umfassende Messinstrumente, die neben individuellen Fähigkeiten auch organisationale Aspekte berücksichtigen. Die englischsprachigen Instrumente DigiHealthCom (5 Faktoren, 42 Items) und DigiComInf (3 Faktoren, 15 Items) erfassen beide Dimensionen, liegen jedoch nicht in deutscher Fassung vor. Ziel: Kultursensitive Übersetzung und Inhaltsvalidierung beider Messinstrumente. Methoden: Die Übersetzung erfolgte gemäß internationalen Leitlinien mittels Vorwärts- und Rückübersetzung zur Erreichung konzeptueller und semantischer Äquivalenz. Zwei Tests mit zwölf, respektive sieben, gezielt ausgewählten Gesundheitsfachpersonen prüften die inhaltliche Äquivalenz (Relevanz, Verständlichkeit) und Inhaltsvalidität über den Content Validity Index (CVI) auf Item- (I-CVI) und Skalenebene (S-CVI/Ave). Ergebnisse: Alle Faktoren zeigten konzeptuelle Äquivalenz und Relevanz. Acht Items des DigiHealthCom wurden semantisch angepasst. Aufgrund unzureichender S-CVI/Ave-Werte für Relevanz (DigiHealthCom: 0.86; DigiComInf: 0.69) und Verständlichkeit (0.93; 0.90) wurden 27 Items überarbeitet. Testung zwei zeigte angemessene S-CVI/Ave-Werte für Relevanz (0.90; 0.76) und Verständlichkeit (0.97; 0.97). Schlussfolgerungen: DigiHealthCom und DigiComInf sind kulturell angepasste und inhaltlich valide Messinstrumente zur Erfassung digitaler Gesundheitskompetenzen im deutschsprachigen Raum. Eine Folgestudie zur Messäquivalenz wird aktuell durchgeführt.
Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) remain the world's leading infectious cause of death. This analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides global, regional, and national estimates of LRI incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with attribution to 26 pathogens, including 11 newly modelled pathogens, across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. With new data and revised modelling techniques, these estimates serve as an update and expansion to GBD 2021. Through these estimates, we also aimed to assess progress towards the 2025 Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) target for pneumonia mortality in children younger than 5 years. Mortality from LRIs, defined as physician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis, was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model with data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, surveillance, and minimally invasive tissue sampling. The Bayesian meta-regression tool DisMod-MR 2.1 was used to model overall morbidity due to LRIs. DALYs were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for all locations, years, age groups, and sexes. We modelled pathogen-specific case-fatality ratios (CFRs) for each age group and location using splined binomial regression to create internally consistent estimates of incidence and mortality proportions attributable to viral, fungal, parasitic, and bacterial pathogens. Progress was assessed towards the GAPPD target of less than three deaths from pneumonia per 1000 livebirths, which is roughly equivalent to a mortality rate of less than 60 deaths per 100 000 children younger than 5 years. In 2023, LRIs were responsible for 2·50 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·24-2·81) deaths and 98·7 million (87·7-112) DALYs, with children younger than 5 years and adults aged 70 years and older carrying the highest burden. LRI mortality in children younger than 5 years fell by 33·4% (10·4-47·4) since 2010, with a global mortality rate of 94·8 (75·6-116·4) per 100 000 person-years in 2023. Among adults aged 70 years and older, the burden remained substantial with only marginal declines since 2010. A mortality rate of less than 60 deaths per 100 000 for children younger than 5 years was met by 129 of the 204 modelled countries in 2023. At a super-regional level, sub-Saharan Africa had an aggregate mortality rate in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5 mortality rate) furthest from the GAPPD target. Streptococcus pneumoniae continued to account for the largest number of LRI deaths globally (634 000 [95% UI 565 000-721 000] deaths or 25·3% [24·5-26·1] of all LRI deaths), followed by Staphylococcus aureus (271 000 [243 000-298 000] deaths or 10·9% [10·3-11·3]), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (228 000 [204 000-261 000] deaths or 9·1% [8·8-9·5]). Among pathogens newly modelled in this study, non-tuberculous mycobacteria (responsible for 177 000 [95% UI 155 000-201 000] deaths) and Aspergillus spp (responsible for 67 800 [59 900-75 900] deaths) emerged as important contributors. Altogether, the 11 newly modelled pathogens accounted for approximately 22% of LRI deaths. This comprehensive analysis underscores both the gains achieved through vaccination and the challenges that remain in controlling the LRI burden globally. Furthermore, it demonstrates persistent disparities in disease burden, with the highest mortality rates concentrated in countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, as well as in these high-burden locations, the under-5 LRI mortality rate remains well above the GAPPD target. Progress towards this target requires equitable access to vaccines and preventive therapies-including newer interventions such as respiratory syncytial virus monoclonal antibodies-and health systems capable of early diagnosis and treatment. Expanding surveillance of emerging pathogens, strengthening adult immunisation programmes, and combating vaccine hesitancy are also crucial. As the global population ages, the dual challenge of sustaining gains in child survival while addressing the rising vulnerability in older adults will shape future pneumonia control strategies. Gates Foundation.
Violence against women and against children are human rights violations with lasting harms to survivors and societies at large. Intimate partner violence (IPV) and sexual violence against children (SVAC) are two major forms of such abuse. Despite their wide-reaching effects on individual and community health, these risk factors have not been adequately prioritised as key drivers of global health burden. Comprehensive x§and reliable estimates of the comparative health burden of IPV and SVAC are urgently needed to inform investments in prevention and support for survivors at both national and global levels. We estimated the prevalence and attributable burden of IPV among females and SVAC among males and females for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2023, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023. We searched several global databases for data on self-reported exposure to IPV and SVAC and undertook a systematic review to identify the health outcomes associated with each of these risk factors. We modelled IPV and SVAC prevalence using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, applying data adjustments to account for measurement heterogeneity. We employed burden-of-proof methodology to estimate relative risks for outcomes associated with IPV and SVAC. These estimates informed the calculation of population attributable fractions, which were then used to quantify disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to each risk factor. Globally, in 2023, we estimated that 608 million (95% uncertainty interval 518-724) females aged 15 years and older had ever been exposed to IPV, and 1·01 billion (0·764-1·48) individuals aged 15 years and older had experienced sexual violence during childhood. 18·5 million (8·74-30·0) DALYs were attributed to IPV among females and 32·2 million (16·4-52·5) DALYs were attributed to SVAC among males and females in 2023. IPV and SVAC were among the top contributors to the global disease burden in 2023, particularly among females aged 15-49 years, ranking as the fourth and fifth leading risk factors, respectively, for DALYs in this group. Among the eight health outcomes found to be associated with IPV, anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder were the leading causes of IPV-attributed DALYs, accounting for 5·43 million (-1·25 to 14·6) and 3·96 million (1·71 to 6·92) DALYs in 2023, respectively. SVAC was associated with 14 health outcomes, including mental health disorder, substance use disorder, and chronic and infectious disease outcomes. Self-harm and schizophrenia were the leading causes of SVAC-attributed burden, with SVAC accounting for 6·71 million (2·00 to 12·7) DALYs due to self-harm and 4·15 million (-1·92 to 13·1) DALYs due to schizophrenia in 2023. IPV and SVAC are substantial contributors to global health burden, and their health consequences span a variety of individual health outcomes. Importantly, mental health disorders account for the greatest share of disease burden among survivors. Investing in prevention of these avoidable risk factors has the potential to avert millions of DALYs and considerable premature mortality each year. Our findings represent strong evidence for global and national leaders to elevate IPV and SVAC among public health priorities. Sustained investments are needed to prevent IPV and SVAC and to implement interventions focused on supporting the complex social and health needs of survivors. Gates Foundation.
Breast cancer is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity among females worldwide. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, we provided an updated comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological trends, disease burden, and risk factors associated with breast cancer globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2023. Breast cancer incidence, mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. Mortality estimates were generated using GBD Cause of Death Ensemble models, leveraging data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Mortality-to-incidence ratios were calculated to derive both mortality and incidence estimates. Prevalence was calculated by combining incidence and modelled survival estimates. YLLs were established by multiplying age-specific deaths with the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. YLDs were estimated by applying disability weights to prevalence estimates. The sum of YLLs and YLDs equalled the number of DALYs. Breast cancer burden attributable to seven risk factors was examined through the comparative risk assessment framework. The GBD forecasting framework was used to forecast breast cancer incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2050. Age-standardised rates were calculated for each metric using the GBD 2023 world standard population. In 2023, there were an estimated 2·30 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·01 to 2·61) breast cancer incident cases, 764 000 deaths (672 000 to 854 000), and 24·1 million (21·3 to 27·5) DALYs among females globally. In the World Bank low-income group, where a low age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) was estimated (44·2 per 100 000 person-years [31·2 to 58·4]), the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) was the highest (24·1 per 100 000 [16·8 to 31·9]). The highest ASIR was in the high-income group (75·7 per 100 000 [67·1 to 84·0]), and the lowest ASMR was in the upper-middle-income group (11·2 per 100 000 [10·2 to 12·3]). Between 1990 and 2023, the ASIR in the low-income group increased by 147·2% (38·1 to 271·7), compared with a 1·2% (-11·5 to 17·2) change in the high-income group. The ASMR decreased in the high-income group, changing by -29·9% (-33·6 to -25·9), but increased by 99·3% (12·5 to 202·9) in the low-income group. The increase in age-standardised DALY rates followed that of ASMRs. Risk factors such as dietary risks, tobacco use, and high fasting plasma glucose contributed to 28·3% (16·6 to 38·9) of breast cancer DALYs in 2023. The risk factors with a decrease in attributable DALYs between 1990 and 2023 were high alcohol use and tobacco. By 2050, the global incident cases of breast cancer among females were forecast to reach 3·56 million (2·29 to 4·83), with 1·37 million (0·841 to 2·02) deaths. The stable incidence and declining mortality rates of female breast cancer in high-income nations reflect success in screening, diagnosis, and treatment. In contrast, the concurrent rise in incidence and mortality in other regions signals health system deficits. Without effective interventions, many countries will fall short of the WHO Global Breast Cancer Initiative's ambitious target of achieving an annual reduction of 2·5% in age-standardised mortality rates by 2040. The mounting breast cancer burden, disproportionately affecting some of the world's most vulnerable populations, will further exacerbate health inequalities across the globe without decisive immediate action. Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital.
Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, is one of the most prevalent liver diseases globally, contributing to both economic and health-related challenges. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national burden of MASLD from 1990 to 2023, quantify the contribution of identified modifiable risk factors, and project future prevalence up to the year 2050. Estimates of MASLD prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were produced by age, sex, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI), and Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) index across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023. The MASLD burden attributable to three risk factors (smoking, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose) was assessed as part of the GBD comparative risk assessment. As a secondary analysis, we used these estimates to forecast MASLD prevalence up to 2050 using fasting plasma glucose and mean BMI as predictors. Furthermore, to examine the relative contributions of population ageing, population growth, and changes in MASLD prevalence rate to the forecasted changes in case counts from 2023 to 2050, we conducted a decomposition analysis. In 2023, approximately 1·3 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·4) individuals were estimated to be living with MASLD (ie, 16·1% of the global population), with an age-standardised prevalence rate of 14 429·3 (95% UI 13 268·3 to 15 990·6) per 100 000 population, representing a percentage increase of 142·7% (95% UI 139·2 to 146·7) in crude numbers from 1990 (0·5 billion [0·5 to 0·6]) and of 28·6% (27·8 to 29·5) in the rate (11 217·2 [10 276·8 to 12 467·0] per 100 000 in 1990). An estimated 3·6 million (2·8 to 4·5) total DALYs were attributable to MASLD worldwide in 2023, corresponding to an age-standardised DALY rate of 39·6 (31·2 to 49·9) per 100 000 population. Despite a 116·3% (93·3 to 139·4) increase in crude DALYs (from 1·7 million [1·3 to 2·1] in 1990), its age-standardised estimate remained consistent (1·8% [-8·6 to 12·8]) from 1990 (38·9 [30·1 to 49·8] per 100 000) to 2023. There was substantial variation in age-standardised estimates across regions. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest prevalence rate (29 246·1 [26 848·3 to 32 048·7] per 100 000) and Andean Latin America showed the highest DALY rate (152·3 [114·1 to 194·7] per 100 000). By contrast, the high-income Asia Pacific region had the lowest prevalence rate (8653·5 [7923·7 to 9592·8] per 100 000) and east Asia had the lowest DALY rate (16·3 [13·5 to 19·9] per 100 000) among all GBD regions. North Africa and the Middle East showed disproportionately higher prevalence rates relative to other regions with similar SDIs. Lower SDIs and HAQs were associated with higher age-standardised DALY rates. The age-standardised prevalence rate was consistently higher in males (15 616·4 [14 349·2 to 17 263·3] per 100 000 people in 2023) than in females (13 245·2 [12 132·0 to 14 692·6] per 100 000 people), and peaked at age 80-84 years in both sexes. The number of MASLD prevalent cases was the highest in younger adults, peaking at age 35-39 years for males and age 55-59 years for females. Among the risk factors for MASLD, high fasting plasma glucose presented the largest contribution to the age-standardised DALY rate of total MASLD in 2023 (2·2 [95% UI 1·6 to 3·1] per 100 000 people), followed by high BMI (1·4 [0·6 to 2·4] per 100 000 people) and smoking (1·0 [0·3 to 1·8] per 100 000 people). Our forecasting model estimates that 1·8 billion (95% UI 1·6 to 2·0) individuals are likely to have MASLD by 2050, representing a 42·0% increase from 2023. The age-standardised prevalence rate is expected to increase to 15 774·9 (95% UI 14 613·9 to 17 336·2) per 100 000 people in 2050, representing an average annual percentage change of 0·3% (95% UI 0·3-0·3). According to our decomposition analysis, this change will be primarily due to population growth, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa and Middle East, and less by population ageing or epidemiological change. With a global prevalence of 16·1% and approximately 1·3 billion people already living with MASLD in 2023, the condition has and will continue to have substantial health and economic impacts worldwide. An inverse association between the HAQ Index and age-standardised DALY rates suggests that countries with lower health-care access and quality might be less well positioned to manage the growing MASLD burden, underscoring the need for strengthened health-system capacity in these settings. Gates Foundation.
Chagas disease is a neglected tropical disease caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, primarily transmitted by infected bugs, but also through contaminated food, transfusions, congenital transmission, and organ transplantation. Chagas disease has acute and chronic phases; the chronic phase can occur decades after infection, leading to complications such as heart failure, arrhythmias, and megaviscera. Accurate mortality and morbidity estimates are hindered by under-reporting and misclassification. Comprehensive and updated estimates are needed to improve global assessments of Chagas disease burden. We aim to provide a comprehensive description of global and regional burden of Chagas disease and its trends from 1990 to 2023. In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, we produced estimates of Chagas disease deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), prevalence, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023 by age and sex. The GBD 2023 estimates supersede previous estimates for all years. For mortality estimates, we fit a cause of death ensemble model to vital registration data. For non-fatal estimates in endemic locations, we did a systematic review of seroprevalence data, defining a confirmed case as a confirmed diagnosis of T cruzi infection by two different positive tests (or a single ELISA or immunochromatographic test). After adjustment for the population at risk, we used a Bayesian compartmental model (DisMod-MR) to produce estimates. For non-endemic locations, we estimated prevalence on the basis of migration patterns and estimated prevalence from endemic countries. Prevalence of acute and chronic sequelae and corresponding disability weights were used to calculate YLDs. We estimated 10·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·4-11·7) Chagas disease prevalent cases in 2023 globally, a 16·1% (12·6-19·2) decrease compared with 1990. The global age-standardised Chagas disease prevalence rate declined by 55·0% (53·8-56·1) from 1990 to 2023, with rates decreasing across all endemic regions. The highest age-standardised Chagas disease prevalence rates in 2023 were in southern Latin America (2485·9 [2249·6-2707·7] per 100 000) and Andean Latin America (2313·8 [2093·7-2570·1] per 100 000). Non-endemic regions experienced notable increases in prevalence due to migration from endemic countries. The age distribution of cases shifted over time, peaking at older ages in 2023 (between age 45 years and 65 years) compared with 1990 (30-45 years). In 2023, there were 352 000 (308 000-398 000) new cases of Chagas disease globally, with the age-standardised rate decreasing by 55·1% (53·4-56·6) since 1990. There were 8420 (7480-9360) deaths globally in 2023. Age-standardised mortality decreased by 72·5% (68·9-75·4) globally from 1990 to 2023. In 2023, the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in tropical Latin America (2·2 [1·9-2·4] per 100 000) and Andean Latin America (0·92 [0·70-1·2] per 100 000). The GBD 2023 Chagas disease estimates are notably higher than previous GBD estimates, reflecting additional data and methodological improvements, and those published by the Pan American Health Organization. Nevertheless, these updated estimates show decreasing prevalence and incidence in endemic countries, highlighting the importance of socioeconomic development, housing conditions, and vector-control policies. Conversely, the increase in prevalence in non-endemic countries, mainly due to migration, requires new strategies for screening, early recognition, and access to care. Although the marked decrease in mortality and YLLs might be due to better access to care at different levels, the shift in age distribution highlights the importance of preparing and funding health systems for caring for older populations with advanced sequelae. Finally, the continuous refinement of data-source quality, including adequate coding and classification, is crucial for the accuracy of global estimates, which can ultimately drive health and social policies. The Gates Foundation, the World Heart Federation, and Novartis Pharma.