E-commerce campaign ranking models require large-scale training labels indicating which users purchased due to campaign influence. However, generating these labels is challenging because campaigns use creative, thematic language that does not directly map to product purchases. Without clear product-level attribution, supervised learning for campaign optimization remains limited. We present Campaign-2-PT-RAG, a scalable label generation framework that constructs user-campaign purchase labels by inferring which product types (PTs) each campaign promotes. The framework first interprets campaign content using large language models (LLMs) to capture implicit intent, then retrieves candidate PTs through semantic search over the platform taxonomy. A structured LLM-based classifier evaluates each PT's relevance, producing a campaign-specific product coverage set. User purchases matching these PTs generate positive training labels for downstream ranking models. This approach reframes the ambiguous attribution problem into a tractable semantic alignment task, enabling scalable and consistent supervision for downstream tasks such as campaign ranking optimization in production e-commerce envir
Social media users and inauthentic accounts, such as bots, may coordinate in promoting their topics. Such topics may give the impression that they are organically popular among the public, even though they are astroturfing campaigns that are centrally managed. It is challenging to predict if a topic is organic or a coordinated campaign due to the lack of reliable ground truth. In this paper, we create such ground truth by detecting the campaigns promoted by ephemeral astroturfing attacks. These attacks push any topic to Twitter's (X) trends list by employing bots that tweet in a coordinated manner in a short period and then immediately delete their tweets. We manually curate a dataset of organic Twitter trends. We then create engagement networks out of these datasets which can serve as a challenging testbed for graph classification task to distinguish between campaigns and organic trends. Engagement networks consist of users as nodes and engagements as edges (retweets, replies, and quotes) between users. We release the engagement networks for 179 campaigns and 135 non-campaigns, and also provide finer-grain labels to characterize the type of the campaigns and non-campaigns. Our dat
We propose a novel clustering pipeline to detect and characterize influence campaigns from documents. This approach clusters parts of document, detects clusters that likely reflect an influence campaign, and then identifies documents linked to an influence campaign via their association with the high-influence clusters. Our approach outperforms both the direct document-level classification and the direct document-level clustering approach in predicting if a document is part of an influence campaign. We propose various novel techniques to enhance our pipeline, including using an existing event factuality prediction system to obtain document parts, and aggregating multiple clustering experiments to improve the performance of both cluster and document classification. Classifying documents after clustering not only accurately extracts the parts of the documents that are relevant to influence campaigns, but also captures influence campaigns as a coordinated and holistic phenomenon. Our approach makes possible more fine-grained and interpretable characterizations of influence campaigns from documents.
Child sexual abuse is among the most hideous crimes, yet, after the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a huge surge in the distribution of child sexual abuse material (CSAM). Traditionally, the exchange of such material is performed on the dark web, as it provides many privacy guarantees that facilitate illicit trades. However, the introduction of end-to-end encryption platforms has brought it to the deep web. In this work, we report our findings for a campaign of spreading child sexual abuse material on the clear web. The campaign utilized at least 1,026 web pages for at least 738,286 registered users. Our analysis details the operation of such a campaign, showcasing how social networks are abused and the role of bots, but also the bypasses that are used. Going a step further and exploiting operational faults in the campaign, we gain insight into the demand for such content, as well as the dynamics of the user network that supports it.
Advertisers usually enjoy the flexibility to choose criteria like target audience, geographic area and bid price when planning an campaign for online display advertising, while they lack forecast information on campaign performance to optimize delivery strategies in advance, resulting in a waste of labour and budget for feedback adjustments. In this paper, we aim to forecast key performance indicators for new campaigns given any certain criteria. Interpretable and accurate results could enable advertisers to manage and optimize their campaign criteria. There are several challenges for this very task. First, platforms usually offer advertisers various criteria when they plan an advertising campaign, it is difficult to estimate campaign performance unifiedly because of the great difference among bidding types. Furthermore, complex strategies applied in bidding system bring great fluctuation on campaign performance, making estimation accuracy an extremely tough problem. To address above challenges, we propose a novel Campaign Performance Forecasting framework, which firstly reproduces campaign performance on historical logs under various bidding types with a unified replay algorithm,
This paper introduces a novel mathematical framework for analyzing cyber threat campaigns through fractal geometry. By conceptualizing hierarchical taxonomies (MITRE ATT&CK, DISARM) as snowflake-like structures with tactics, techniques, and sub-techniques forming concentric layers, we establish a rigorous method for campaign comparison using Hutchinson's Theorem and Hausdorff distance metrics. Evaluation results confirm that our fractal representation preserves hierarchical integrity while providing a dimensionality-based complexity assessment that correlates with campaign complexity. The proposed methodology bridges taxonomy-driven cyber threat analysis and computational geometry, providing analysts with both mathematical rigor and interpretable visualizations for addressing the growing complexity of adversarial operations across multiple threat domains.
As Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) grow increasingly sophisticated, the demand for effective detection methods has intensified. This study addresses the challenge of identifying APT campaign attacks through system event logs. A cascading approach, name SFM, combines Technique hunting and APT campaign attribution. Our approach assumes that real-world system event logs contain a vast majority of normal events interspersed with few suspiciously malicious ones and that these logs are annotated with Techniques of MITRE ATT&CK framework for attack pattern recognition. Then, we attribute APT campaign attacks by aligning detected Techniques with known attack sequences to determine the most likely APT campaign. Evaluations on five real-world APT campaigns indicate that the proposed approach demonstrates reliable performance.
Issue salience is a major determinant in voters' decisions. Candidates and political parties campaign to shift salience to their advantage - a process termed priming. We study the dynamics, strategies and equilibria of campaign spending for voter priming in multi-issue multi-party settings. We consider both parliamentary elections, where parties aim to maximize their share of votes, and various settings for presidential elections, where the winner takes all. For parliamentary elections, we show that pure equilibrium spending always exists and can be computed in time linear in the number of voters. For two parties and all settings, a spending equilibrium exists such that each party invests only in a single issue, and an equilibrium can be computed in time that is polynomial in the number of issues and linear in the number of voters. We also show that in most presidential settings no equilibrium exists. Additional properties of optimal campaign strategies are also studied.
Elections play a fundamental role in democratic societies, however they are often characterized by unexpected results. Here we discuss an election campaign model inspired by the compartmental epidemiology, and we show that the model captures the main characteristics of an election campaign: persuasion, betrayal and regret. All of these three factors can be used together or independently to influence the campaign, and to determine the winner. We include results for both the deterministic and the stochastic versions of the model, and we show that the decision to not vote significantly increases the fluctuations in the model, amplifying the chance of controversial results, in agreement with the well known "paradox of not voting".
Space exploration plans are becoming increasingly complex as public agencies and private companies target deep-space locations, such as cislunar space and beyond, which require long-duration missions and many supporting systems and payloads. Optimizing multi-mission exploration campaigns is challenging due to the large number of required launches as well as their sequencing and compatibility requirements, making the conventional space logistics formulations not scalable. To tackle this challenge, this paper proposes an alternative approach that leverages a two-level hierarchical optimization algorithm: a genetic algorithm is used to explore the campaign scheduling solution space, and each of the solutions is then evaluated using a time-expanded multi-commodity flow mixed-integer linear program. A number of case studies, focusing on the Artemis lunar exploration program, demonstrate how the method can be used to analyze potential campaign architectures. The method enables a potential mission planner to study the sensitivity of a campaign to program-level parameters such as logistics vehicle availability and performance, payload launch windows, and in-situ resource utilization infras
Marketing campaigns are a set of strategic activities that can promote a business's goal. The effect prediction for marketing campaigns in a real industrial scenario is very complex and challenging due to the fact that prior knowledge is often learned from observation data, without any intervention for the marketing campaign. Furthermore, each subject is always under the interference of several marketing campaigns simultaneously. Therefore, we cannot easily parse and evaluate the effect of a single marketing campaign. To the best of our knowledge, there are currently no effective methodologies to solve such a problem, i.e., modeling an individual-level prediction task based on a hierarchical structure with multiple intertwined events. In this paper, we provide an in-depth analysis of the underlying parse tree-like structure involved in the effect prediction task and we further establish a Hierarchical Capsule Prediction Network (HapNet) for predicting the effects of marketing campaigns. Extensive results based on both the synthetic data and real data demonstrate the superiority of our model over the state-of-the-art methods and show remarkable practicability in real industrial appl
Gender-based violence (GBV) is a human-generated crisis, existing in various forms, including offline, via physical and sexual violence, and now online via harassment and trolling. While studying social media campaigns for different domains such as public health, natural crises, etc. has received attention in the literature, such studies for GBV are still in nascent form. The dynamics of campaigns responding to curb this crisis could benefit from systematic investigation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to examine such public campaigns involving social media by organizations operating at the local, national and global levels, with an eye to answering the following research questions: (1) How do members of one campaign community engage with other campaign communities? (2) How do demographic variables such as gender effect campaign engagement in light of given regional crime statistics? (3) Is there any coordination among organizational users for campaigns with similar underlying social causes?
Amateur astronomers can make useful contributions to the study of comets. They add temporal coverage and multi-scale observations which can aid the study of fast-changing, and large-scale comet features. We document and review the amateur observing campaign set up to complement the Rosetta space mission, including the data submitted to date, and consider the campaign's effectiveness in the light of experience from previous comet amateur campaigns. We report the results of surveys of campaign participants, the amateur astronomy community, and schools who participated in a comet 46P observing campaign. We draw lessons for future campaigns which include the need for: clarity of objectives; recognising the wider impact campaigns can have on increasing science capital; clear, consistent, timely and tailored guidance; easy upload procedures with in-built quality control; and, regular communication, feedback and recognition.
Researchers have attempted to measure the success of crowdfunding campaigns using a variety of determinants, such as the descriptions of the crowdfunding campaigns, the amount of funding goals, and crowdfunding project characteristics. Although many successful determinants have been reported in the literature, it remains unclear whether the cover photo and the text in the title and description could be combined in a fusion classifier to better predict the crowdfunding campaign's success. In this work, we focus on the performance of the crowdfunding campaigns on GoFundMe across a wide variety of funding categories. We analyze the attributes available at the launch of the campaign and identify attributes that are important for each category of the campaigns. Furthermore, we develop a fusion classifier based on the random forest that significantly improves the prediction result, thus suggesting effective ways to make a campaign successful.
Twitter has been increasingly used for spreading messages about campaigns. Such campaigns try to gain followers through their Twitter accounts, influence the followers and spread messages through them. In this paper, we explore the relationship between followers sentiment towards the campaign topic and their rate of retweeting of messages generated by the campaign. Our analysis with followers of multiple social-media campaigns found statistical significant correlations between such sentiment and retweeting rate. Based on our analysis, we have conducted an online intervention study among the followers of different social-media campaigns. Our study shows that targeting followers based on their sentiment towards the campaign can give higher retweet rate than a number of other baseline approaches.
This report presents the results of the shared tasks organized as part of the VarDial Evaluation Campaign 2023. The campaign is part of the tenth workshop on Natural Language Processing (NLP) for Similar Languages, Varieties and Dialects (VarDial), co-located with EACL 2023. Three separate shared tasks were included this year: Slot and intent detection for low-resource language varieties (SID4LR), Discriminating Between Similar Languages -- True Labels (DSL-TL), and Discriminating Between Similar Languages -- Speech (DSL-S). All three tasks were organized for the first time this year.
Information spreading in a population can be modeled as an epidemic. Campaigners (e.g. election campaign managers, companies marketing products or movies) are interested in spreading a message by a given deadline, using limited resources. In this paper, we formulate the above situation as an optimal control problem and the solution (using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle) prescribes an optimal resource allocation over the time of the campaign. We consider two different scenarios --- in the first, the campaigner can adjust a direct control (over time) which allows her to recruit individuals from the population (at some cost) to act as spreaders for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model. In the second case, we allow the campaigner to adjust the effective spreading rate by incentivizing the infected in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, in addition to the direct recruitment. We consider time varying information spreading rate in our formulation to model the changing interest level of individuals in the campaign, as the deadline is reached. In both the cases, we show the existence of a solution and its uniqueness for sufficiently small campaign deadlines.
Campaigners, advertisers and activists are increasingly turning to social recommendation mechanisms, provided by social media, for promoting their products, services, brands and even ideas. However, many times, such social network based campaigns perform poorly in practice because the intensity of the recommendations drastically reduces beyond a few hops from the source. A natural strategy for maintaining the intensity is to provide incentives. In this paper, we address the problem of minimizing the cost incurred by the campaigner for incentivizing a fraction of individuals in the social network, while ensuring that the campaign message reaches a given expected fraction of individuals. We also address the dual problem of maximizing the campaign penetration for a resource constrained campaigner. To help us understand and solve the above mentioned problems, we use percolation theory to formally state them as optimization problems. These problems are not amenable to traditional approaches because of a fixed point equation that needs to be solved numerically. However, we use results from reliability theory to establish some key properties of the fixed point, which in turn enables us to
Americans are increasingly relying on crowdfunding to pay for the costs of healthcare. In medical crowdfunding, online platforms allow individuals to appeal to social networks to request donations for health and medical needs. Users are often told that success depends on how they organize and share their campaigns to increase social network engagement. However, experts have cautioned that MCF could exacerbate health and social disparities by amplifying the choices and biases of the crowd and leveraging these to determine who has access to financial support for healthcare. To date, research on potential axes of disparity in MCF, and their impacts on fundraising outcomes, has been limited. This paper presents an exploratory cross-sectional study of a randomized sample of 637 MCF campaigns on the popular platform Gofundme, for which the race, gender, age, and relationships of campaigners and campaign recipients were categorized alongside campaign characteristics and outcomes. Our analyses examine race, gender, and age disparities in MCF use, and tests how these are associated with differential campaign outcomes. The results show systemic disparities in MCF use and outcomes: non-white
In March 2021, Turkey withdrew from The Istanbul Convention, a human-rights treaty that addresses violence against women, citing issues with the convention's implicit recognition of sexual and gender minorities. In this work, we trace disinformation campaigns related to the Istanbul Convention and its associated Turkish law that circulate on divorced men's rights Facebook groups. We find that these groups adjusted the narrative and focus of the campaigns to appeal to a larger audience, which we refer to as "tactical reframing." Initially, the men organized in a grass-roots manner to campaign against the Turkish law that was passed to codify the convention, focusing on one-sided custody of children and indefinite alimony. Later, they reframed their campaign and began attacking the Istanbul Convention, highlighting its acknowledgment of homosexuality. This case study highlights how disinformation campaigns can be used to weaponize homophobia in order to limit the rights of women. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first case study that analyzes a narrative reframing in the context of a disinformation campaign on social media.