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This study evaluated self-reported response certainty across several large language models (GPT, Claude, Llama, Phi, Mistral, Gemini, Gemma, and Qwen) using 300 gastroenterology board-style questions. The highest-performing models (GPT-o1 preview, GPT-4o, and Claude-3.5-Sonnet) achieved Brier scores of 0.15-0.2 and AUROC of 0.6. Although newer models demonstrated improved performance, all exhibited a consistent tendency towards overconfidence. Uncertainty estimation presents a significant challenge to the safe use of LLMs in healthcare. Keywords: Large Language Models; Confidence Elicitation; Artificial Intelligence; Gastroenterology; Uncertainty Quantification
Background: Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a disruptive innovation in medicine, yet its adoption within gastroenterology remains limited and poorly characterized. We aimed to examine knowledge, practical applications, perceived barriers, and expectations regarding AI among gastroenterology specialists in Spain. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional observational study using a structured online survey distributed by the Spanish Society of Digestive Pathology (SEPD) in 2025. The questionnaire collected sociodemographic data, patterns of AI use, perceptions, and educational needs. Descriptive statistics and multivariable models were applied. Results: Among 283 respondents (mean age 44.6 +/- 9.7 years), 87.5% acknowledged AI as a transformative tool, but only 60.2% (95% CI: 54.3-66.1%) reported using it, mostly outside institutional frameworks. Notably, 80.2% of users initiated AI use within the past year. Independent predictors of frequent use included previous training (OR=2.44), employment in university hospitals (OR=2.14), and younger age (OR=1.36 per 5-year decrease). Main barriers were lack of training (61%), absence of institutional strategies (46%), and ethical c
Translation of the paper ``Simplizialzerlegungen von Beschrankter Flachheit'' by Hans Freudenthal (https://doi.org/10.2307/1968813), in which Freudenthal answers ``a question by Brouwer about the construction of an infinite series of subdivisions of a polytope, such that the next element in the sequence is a subdivision of the previous one and such that the subsimplices that arise do not become arbitrarily flat.''
Background and Aims: This study evaluates the medical reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs) and vision language models (VLMs) in gastroenterology. Methods: We used 300 gastroenterology board exam-style multiple-choice questions, 138 of which contain images to systematically assess the impact of model configurations and parameters and prompt engineering strategies utilizing GPT-3.5. Next, we assessed the performance of proprietary and open-source LLMs (versions), including GPT (3.5, 4, 4o, 4omini), Claude (3, 3.5), Gemini (1.0), Mistral, Llama (2, 3, 3.1), Mixtral, and Phi (3), across different interfaces (web and API), computing environments (cloud and local), and model precisions (with and without quantization). Finally, we assessed accuracy using a semiautomated pipeline. Results: Among the proprietary models, GPT-4o (73.7%) and Claude3.5-Sonnet (74.0%) achieved the highest accuracy, outperforming the top open-source models: Llama3.1-405b (64%), Llama3.1-70b (58.3%), and Mixtral-8x7b (54.3%). Among the quantized open-source models, the 6-bit quantized Phi3-14b (48.7%) performed best. The scores of the quantized models were comparable to those of the full-precision
Phosphorus (P) is considered to be one of the key elements for life, making it an important element to look for in the abundance analysis of spectra of stellar systems. Yet, there exists only a handful of spectroscopic studies to estimate the P abundances and investigate its trend across a range of metallicities. We have observed full HK band spectra at a spectral resolving power of R=45,000 with IGRINS instrument. Abundances are determined using SME in combination with 1D MARCS stellar atmosphere models. The investigated sample of stars have reliable stellar parameters estimated using optical FIES spectra (GILD; Jönsson et al. in prep.). In order to determine the P abundances from the 16482.92 Angstrom P line, we take special care of the CO($ν=7-4$) blend. We determine the C, N, O abundances from atomic carbon and a range of non-blended molecular lines (CO, CN, OH) which are aplenty in the H band region of K giant stars, assuring an appropriate modelling of the blending CO($ν=7-4$) line. We present [P/Fe] vs [Fe/H] trend for 38 K giant stars in the metallicity range of -1.2 dex $<$ [Fe/H] $<$ 0.4 dex. We find that our trend matches well with the compiled literature sample of
Retrieval shapes how language models access and ground knowledge in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). In historical research, the target is often not an arbitrary relevant passage, but the exact record for a specific regnal month, where temporal consistency matters as much as topical relevance. This is especially challenging for Classical Chinese annals, where time is expressed through terse, implicit, non-Gregorian reign phrases that must be interpreted from surrounding context, so semantically plausible evidence can still be temporally invalid. We introduce \textbf{ChunQiuTR}, a time-keyed retrieval benchmark built from the \textit{Spring and Autumn Annals} and its exegetical tradition. ChunQiuTR organizes records by month-level reign keys and includes chrono-near confounders that mirror realistic retrieval failures. We further propose \textbf{CTD} (Calendrical Temporal Dual-encoder), a time-aware dual-encoder that combines Fourier-based absolute calendrical context with relative offset biasing. Experiments show consistent gains over strong semantic dual-encoder baselines under time-keyed evaluation, supporting retrieval-time temporal consistency as a key prerequisite for fai
A historical record of a seismic tsunami is identified in the Irish annals for October 720 (all dates herein CE). It is contained in the earliest stratum of the annals, which survives in the form of a handful of iterated scribal copies of the foundational text of the tradition. This was compiled by the contemporary observation of noteworthy events for the years c. 563-740 at the monastery of Iona in the Scottish Hebrides. The 720 event is close outside the 2$σ$ radiocarbon terminus ante quem date ranges for tsunami deposits identified at Dury Voe (530-660) and Basta Voe (430-650) in the Shetland Isles, and is identified as a candidate progenitor. The possibility of the existence of associated tsunami deposits in Scotland or on the north coast of Ireland is highlighted.
Eccentric planets may spend a significant portion of their orbits at large distances from their host stars, where low temperatures can cause atmospheric CO2 to condense out onto the surface, similar to the polar ice caps on Mars. The radiative effects on the climates of these planets throughout their orbits would depend on the wavelength-dependent albedo of surface CO2 ice that may accumulate at or near apoastron and vary according to the spectral energy distribution of the host star. To explore these possible effects, we incorporated a CO2 ice-albedo parameterization into a one-dimensional energy balance climate model. With the inclusion of this parameterization, our simulations demonstrated that F-dwarf planets require 29% more orbit-averaged flux to thaw out of global water ice cover compared with simulations that solely use a traditional pure water ice-albedo parameterization. When no eccentricity is assumed, and host stars are varied, F-dwarf planets with higher bond albedos relative to their M-dwarf planet counterparts require 30% more orbit-averaged flux to exit a water snowball state. Additionally, the intense heat experienced at periastron aids eccentric planets in exiting
This paper presents a thorough bibliometric analysis of research published in Annals of Library and Information Studies (ALIS), an India-based journal, for the period 2011_2017. Specifically, it compares this journal's trends with those of other library and information science (LIS) journals from the same geographical area (India, and Asia as a whole) and with the 10 highest-rated LIS journals worldwide. The source of the data used was the multidisciplinary database Scopus. To perform this comparison, ALIS' production was analyzed in order to identify authorship patterns; for example, authors' countries of residence, co-authorship trends, and collaboration networks. Research topics were identified through keyword analysis, while performance was measured by examining the number of citations articles received. This study provides substantial information. The research lines detected through examining the keywords in ALIS articles were determined to be similar to those for the top LIS journals in both Asia and worldwide. Specifically, ALIS authors are focusing on metrics, bibliometrics, and social networking, which follows global trends. Notably, however, collaboration among Asia-based
A recent study [Annals Phys. 455 (2023) 169394, e-Print: 2204.01901 [gr-qc]] examined the thermodynamic behavior of an axially symmetric black hole within a non-commutative framework that mimics the effect of an angular momentum. However, the analysis presents notable computational inconsistencies. In that analysis, the event horizon was miscalculated, and this error propagated through and compromised all subsequent results. In addition, an incorrect definition of surface gravity was used -- the spherically symmetric case was invoked for an axially symmetric spacetime -- rendering the thermodynamic results invalid. In other words, all the results presented in the paper require a thorough reexamination.
We have investigated the toroidal analog of ellipsoidal shells of matter, which are of great significance in Astrophysics. The exact formula for the gravitational potential $Ψ(R,Z)$ of a shell with a circular section at the pole of toroidal coordinates is first established. It depends on the mass of the shell, its main radius and axis-ratio $e$ (i.e. core-to-main radius ratio), and involves the product of the complete elliptic integrals of the first and second kinds. Next, we show that successive partial derivatives $\partial^{n +m} Ψ/\partial_{R^n} \partial_{Z^m}$ are also accessible by analytical means at that singular point, thereby enabling the expansion of the interior potential as a bivariate series. Then, we have generated approximations at orders $0$, $1$, $2$ and $3$, corresponding to increasing accuracy. Numerical experiments confirm the great reliability of the approach, in particular for small-to-moderate axis ratios ($e^2 \lesssim 0.1$ typically). In contrast with the ellipsoidal case (Newton's theorem), the potential is not uniform inside the shell cavity as a consequence of the curvature. We explain how to construct the interior potential of toroidal shells with a th
Compression is essential to storing and transmitting medical videos, but the effect of compression on downstream medical tasks is often ignored. Furthermore, systems in practice rely on standard video codecs, which naively allocate bits between medically relevant frames or parts of frames. In this work, we present an empirical study of some deficiencies of classical codecs on gastroenterology videos, and motivate our ongoing work to train a learned compression model for colonoscopy videos. We show that two of the most common classical codecs, H264 and HEVC, compress medically relevant frames statistically significantly worse than medically nonrelevant ones, and that polyp detector performance degrades rapidly as compression increases. We explain how a learned compressor could allocate bits to important regions and allow detection performance to degrade more gracefully. Many of our proposed techniques generalize to medical video domains beyond gastroenterology
Today's data-heavy research environment requires the integration of different sources of information into structured data sets that can not be analyzed as simple matrices. We introduce an old technique, known in the European data analyses circles as the Duality Diagram Approach, put to new uses through the use of a variety of metrics and ways of combining different diagrams together. This issue of the Annals of Applied Statistics contains contemporary examples of how this approach provides solutions to hard problems in data integration. We present here the genesis of the technique and how it can be seen as a precursor of the modern kernel based approaches.
In this paper, we investigate conformal Killing's vectors (CKVs) admitted by some plane symmetric spacetimes. Ten conformal Killing's equations and their general forms of CKVs are derived along with their conformal factor. The existence of conformal Killing's symmetry imposes restrictions on the metric functions. The conditions imposing restrictions on these metric functions are obtained as a set of integrability conditions. Considering the cases of time-like and inheriting CKVs, we obtain spacetimes admitting plane conformal symmetry. Integrability conditions are solved completely for some known non-conformally flat and conformally flat classes of plane symmetric spacetimes. A special vacuum plane symmetric spacetime is obtained, and it is shown that for such a metric CKVs are just the homothetic vectors (HVs). Among all the examples considered, there exists only one case with a six dimensional algebra of special CKVs admitting one proper CKV. In all other examples of non-conformally flat metrics, no proper CKV is found and CKVs are either HVs or Killing's vectors (KVs). In each of the three cases of conformally flat metrics, a fifteen dimensional algebra of CKVs is obtained of wh
A previous study of symmetric collisions of massive nuclei has shown that current models of multi-nucleon transfer (MNT) reactions do not adequately describe the transfer product yields. To gain further insight into this problem, we have measured the yields of MNT products in the interaction of 977 (E/A = 4.79 MeV) and 1143 MeV (E/A = 5.60 MeV) $^{204}$Hg with $^{208}$Pb. We find that the yield of multi-nucleon transfer products are similar in these two reactions and are substantially lower than those observed in the reaction of 1257 MeV (E/A = 6.16 MeV) $^{204}$Hg + $^{198}$Pt. We compare our measurements with the predictions of the GRAZING-F, di-nuclear systems (DNS) and improved quantum molecular dynamics (ImQMD) models. For the observed isotopes of the elements Au, Hg, Tl, Pb and Bi, the measured values of the MNT cross sections are orders of magnitude larger than the predicted values. Furthermore, the various models predict the formation of nuclides near the N=126 shell, which are not observed.
This is "Letter to the Editor" of Annals of Applied Statistics, addressing the paper by Goerg G. M. (2011) "Lambert W random variables-a new family of generalized skewed distributions with applications to risk estimation".
While an integration by parts formula for the bilinear form of the hypersingular boundary integral operator for the transient heat equation in three spatial dimensions is available in the literature, a proof of this formula seems to be missing. Moreover, the available formula contains an integral term including the time derivative of the fundamental solution of the heat equation, whose interpretation is difficult at second glance. To fill these gaps we provide a rigorous proof of a general version of the integration by parts formula and an alternative representation of the mentioned integral term, which is valid for a certain class of functions including the typical tensor-product discretization spaces.
Rejoinder to the discussion by Hino (2025) and Pardo-Fernández (2025) of Chacón and Fernández Serrano (2025), a special paper (with discussion) published in Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics.
It is proved the equivalence of the compatibility condition of [A. Ramos, J. Phys. A 44 (2011) 342001, Phys. Lett. A 376 (2012) 3499] with a condition found in [Yadav et al., Ann. Phys. 359 (2015) 46]. The link of Shape Invariance with the existence of a Potential Algebra is reinforced for the rationally extended Shape Invariant potentials. Some examples on X1 and Xl Jacobi and Laguerre cases are given.
In my 2011 Annals of Applied Statistics article [Goerg (2011)] I wrote that "Whereas the Lambert $W$ function plays an important role in mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology and other fields, it has not yet been used in statistics." This was incorrect. At the time of publication I was unaware of Stehlík (2003), who used the Lambert $W$ function to derive the exact distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic. He has also used it in more recent work such as Stehlík (2006), Stehlík et al. (2010), or Stehlík (2014) amongst others. While Stehlík's use of the Lambert $W$ function was focused on the distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic, my work dealt with the modeling of skewed random variables and symmetrizing data using the Lambert $W$ function as a variable transformation.