Objective: To define the causal time-series link between blood pressure and the body mass index (BMI) using cross-logged pathway analysis. And to determine the moderating role of blood lipids in the relationship between BMI and blood pressure. Methods: In January 2022, a study was conducted involving 19, 959 oil workers in Xinjiang who participated in the study in 2022 and completed their follow-up in 2023. The BMI, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), and blood pressure of the research subjects were measured repeatedly during the follow-up period. The correlations between BMI, TG, HDL and blood pressure at baseline time point and follow-up time point were analyzed by Spearman rank correlation. A cross-lagged pathway analysis model was used to analyze the causal time-series link between BMI, TG, HDL and increased blood pressure in temporal fluctuation. And bootstrap method was adopted to further understand the mediating role of TC and TG in the association between BMI and blood pressure. Results: The results of the correlation analysis showed that the baseline BMI, TG of the Xinjiang oil workers were positively correlated with the follow-up systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (r(s)=0.020, 0.017, 0.015, 0.016, P<0.05), while the baseline HDL was negatively correlated with the follow-up SBP and DBP (r(s)=-0.015, -0.017, P<0.05). The cross-lagged pathway analysis results showed that the baseline BMI of Xinjiang oil workers was positively correlated with the follow-up SBP and DBP levels (ρ=0.085, 0.047, P<0.05), the baseline TG was positively correlated with the follow-up SBP and DBP levels (ρ=0.133, 0.094, P<0.05), and the baseline HDL was negatively correlated with the follow-up SBP and DBP levels (ρ=-0.651, -0.505, P<0.05). The mediating analysis results showed that the levels of TC and TG played a partial mediating role in the relationship between BMI and SBP, DBP among Xinjiang oil workers, and the results were statistically significant (P<0.05) . Conclusion: The BMI rises occur before the changes in blood pressure among oil workers. In addition, the lipid changes that emerged after the increase of BMI play a partial mediating role in the causal link between BMI and blood pressure. 目的： 采用交叉滞后路径分析探索体质指数（BMI）和血压之间的因果时序关系，了解血脂在BMI和血压关系间的中介作用。 方法： 于2022年1月，将2022年参与研究同时在2023年完成随访的19 959名新疆石油工人作为研究对象，随访期间重复测量研究对象的BMI、总胆固醇（TC）、甘油三酯（TG）、高密度脂蛋白（HDL）、血压等数据，通过Spearman秩相关分析基线时间点和随访时间点BMI、TG和HDL与血压之间的相关性，采用交叉滞后路径分析模型分析BMI、TG、HDL在时间变化中和血压升高的因果时序关系，使用bootstrap方法进一步了解TC、TG在BMI和血压之间的中介作用。 结果： 相关性分析结果显示，新疆石油工人基线BMI、TG与随访收缩压（SBP）、舒张压（DBP）之间均呈正相关（r(s)=0.020、0.017、0.015、0.016，P<0.05），基线HDL与随访SBP、DBP之间呈负相关（r(s)=-0.015、-0.017，P<0.05）。交叉滞后路径分析结果显示，新疆石油工人基线BMI与随访SBP和DBP水平呈正相关（ρ=0.085、0.047，P<0.05），基线TG与随访SBP和DBP水平呈正相关（ρ=0.133、0.094，P<0.05），基线HDL和随访SBP和DBP水平呈负相关（ρ=-0.651、-0.505，P<0.05）。中介分析结果发现，TC和TG水平在新疆石油工人BMI与SBP和DBP的关系中起部分中介作用，结果具有统计学意义（P<0.05）。 结论： 石油工人的BMI增加先于血压变化，并且在BMI增加后出现的血脂变化在BMI和血压的因果关系中起部分中介作用。.
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