Gobal, regional, and national burden of hepato-pancreato-biliary cancers in older populations, 1992-2021, and prediction to 2040: analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease study, 2021.

内容摘要

Hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) cancers affect human health and impose a significant burden on older adults. However, a comprehensive assessment of the global HPB disease burden in older adults is lacking. This research analyzed the trends in the burden of these cancers in older adults (aged 60-89 years) from 1992 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021. We examined the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of liver cancer (LC), gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC), and pancreatic cancer (PC) in 204 countries and territories. Temporal trends were assessed using joinpoint regression and decomposition analysis with a focus on key global, regional, and national patterns. The incidence and mortality rates of LC and PC showed a consistent increase, particularly in regions with a high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), whereas GBTC rates declined globally. Metabolic risk factors such as high Body Mass Index (BMI) were associated with increased DALYs for LC and PC. Projections indicate that the burden of these cancers will continue to increase. Our findings highlight the significant global disparities in the burden of HPB cancers among older adults, underscoring the need for targeted prevention and treatment strategies, particularly in regions with high SDIs.