[Ecological restoration zoning control for the plain section of the Yongding River based on the coupling of landscape ecological risks and ecosystem service values].

内容摘要

Urban expansion and human disturbances have continuously reshaped land-use patterns in river basins, exacerbating landscape ecological risk (LER) and undermining ecosystem service value (ESV). To support targeted ecological restoration and spatial regulation, we focused on the plain section of the Yongding River Basin and developed an ecological restoration zoning and regulation framework based on the coupling relationship between LER and ESV. Using multi-temporal land-use and environmental datasets from 1980 to 2020, we systematically assessed the spatiotemporal variations of LER and ESV. Ecological restoration zones were delineated through Z-score standardization, while the mechanisms underlying their formation and evolution were identified using the Geodetector model. The results showed that land use in the study area had shifted from an agriculture-dominated pattern toward a mixed urban-ecological landscape, with a total land-use transition area of 404.07 km2. Built-up land expanded rapidly, while cropland declined markedly. The areas of forest, grassland, and water bodies exhibited slight reco-very under the influence of ecological restoration projects. LER showed an increasing trend, with high-risk areas expanding along the Yongding River and southern plain, whereas localized low-risk areas reflected the positive effects of ecological restoration. Total ESV declined initially and then rebounded, with regulating and supporting services showing dominance in the long-term. The ESV of the Yongding River channel was sensitive to fluctuations in regional total ESV but had not yet recovered to pre-dry-up levels. Based on the LER-ESV coupling relationship, the study area was divided into ecological protection zones, ecological control zones, ecological improvement zones, and ecological conservation zones. Ecological improvement and control zones accounted for more than 70% of the total area, constituting the primary spatial focus for current ecological restoration and risk prevention. Land use remained the dominant factor driving the spatial differentiations of LER and ESV. The intensity of interactions between natural factors and human activity factors showed a declining trend in recent years, indicating that regional ecosystem structure and function were stabilizing under ecological governance. These findings would provide scientific basis for determining ecological restoration priorities and implementing differentiated spatial regulation in the plain section of the Yongding River. 城市扩张和人类干扰持续重塑流域土地利用格局,加剧景观生态风险(LER)并削弱生态系统服务价值(ESV)。为支撑精准生态修复和空间管控,本研究以永定河流域平原段为研究区,构建基于LER-ESV 耦合的生态修复分区调控框架。利用1980—2020年多期土地利用和环境数据,系统评估LER和ESV的时空演变特征,通过Z值标准化方法划分生态修复分区,并借助地理探测器揭示分区形成及演变的驱动机制。结果表明:1980—2020年间,研究区土地利用由农业主导向城乡-生态复合格局转型,总转移面积达404.07 km2,建设用地快速扩张,耕地显著减少,林地、草地和水域在生态工程作用下略有恢复;LER整体呈上升趋势,高风险区沿永定河及南部平原扩展,而局部低风险区增长反映了生态修复成效;ESV总量表现为先降后升,调节服务和支持服务长期占主导,永定河河道ESV对区域ESV总量的波动高度敏感,但尚未恢复至断流前水平;基于LER-ESV耦合关系,将研究区划分为生态保护区、生态控制区、生态改善区和生态保育区,其中,生态改善区和生态控制区占比超过70%,构成了当前生态修复和风险防控的重点空间;土地利用始终是影响LER和ESV空间分异的主导因子,自然因子与人类活动因子的交互作用强度在近年呈衰减趋势,表明在生态治理背景下区域生态系统结构和功能趋于稳定。研究结果可为永定河平原段生态修复优先序确定和差异化空间管控提供科学依据。.