To analyze surveillance data on birth defects among perinatal infants in Guiyang City from 2016 to 2024, predict future trends, and provide a scientific basis for prevention and control strategies. Perinatal birth defect data for Guiyang City during 2016-2024 were collected and statistically analyzed. An ARIMA model was established to predict monthly birth defect incidence for 2025-2026. The average annual incidence rate of birth defects in Guiyang City was 45.1‰, with an overall upward trend (P<0.001). The top five defects overall were congenital heart disease, external ear malformation, polydactyly, clubfoot, and hypospadias, with slight year-to-year variation in ranking; congenital heart disease consistently ranked first. The birth defect detection rate was higher in male infants (48.3‰) than in female infants (41.3‰) (P<0.001), and higher in rural areas (53.2‰) than in urban areas (44.3‰) (P<0.001). Among maternal age groups, the incidence was highest in infants of mothers aged ≥35 years (50.5‰). Most diagnoses were confirmed within 7 days postpartum, accounting for 82.71% of cases (10 489 cases). The ARIMA model predicted monthly mean incidence rates of 84.9‰ in 2025 and 91.2‰ in 2026, indicating a continued upward trend. The incidence of birth defects in Guiyang shows an upward trajectory, with congenital heart disease as the leading defect. Targeted management for key populations such as rural residents and advanced-age pregnant women is recommended; the prenatal screening process should be standardized, and high-risk interventions strengthened via prenatal diagnosis centers to improve the quality of the newborn population. 目的: 分析贵阳市2016—2024年围产儿出生缺陷的监测情况，预测其发展趋势，为贵阳市制定出生缺陷防控策略提供科学依据。方法: 对贵阳市2016—2024年围产儿出生缺陷数据进行收集与统计分析，建立ARIMA模型预测贵阳市2025—2026年的月出生缺陷率。结果: 贵阳市2016—2024年出生缺陷年均发生率为45.1‰，发病率整体呈上升趋势（P<0.001）。总体出生缺陷前5位病种依次为先天性心脏病、外耳畸形、多指/趾、马蹄内翻足和尿道下裂，每年顺位略有变动，其中先天性心脏病持续居首位。男婴出生缺陷检出率（48.3‰）高于女婴（41.3‰）（P<0.001）;乡村（53.2‰）高于城镇（44.3‰）（P<0.001）;≥35岁的产妇在各年龄段中，围产儿出生缺陷发生率最高（50.5‰）。出生缺陷儿确诊以产后7 d为主，占比82.71%（10 489例）。ARIMA模型预测2025年、2026年月均出生缺陷发生率为84.9‰、91.2‰，呈继续上升趋势。结论: 贵阳市出生缺陷发生率呈上升态势，先天性心脏病为主要高发类型。建议聚焦农村、高龄孕妇等重点人群实施专项管理;规范产前筛查流程，依托产前诊断中心强化高风险干预，提升出生人口素质。.
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arXiv · 2025-01-14
arXiv · 2013-12-06