Accurate, fair, and generalisable scaling of injury severity score-based AI with demographics in terms of mortality in patients with trauma: multi-centre, multi-national retrospective cohort study.

内容摘要

Accurate and equitable prediction of trauma-related in-hospital mortality is critical for guiding clinical decisions and optimising trauma care resources. Traditional severity scoring systems like the Injury Severity Score (ISS) do not account for demographic factors, potentially limiting their fairness and generalisability across diverse populations. We developed and externally validated an artificial intelligence (AI) model based on ISS and integrated demographic features (age and sex) to predict in-hospital mortality after trauma. Data from the Korean Trauma Data Bank were used for model development and internal validation, comprising 121,418 patients with trauma aged &#x2265;15 years treated at 19 trauma centres in South Korea (2017-2022). External validation was performed on an independent cohort of 7458 patients from five trauma centres (four in South Korea and one in Australia, 2022-2024). The primary outcome was trauma-related in-hospital mortality. Predictive performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and balanced accuracy. Fairness was evaluated by comparing AUROC differences across age (<65 vs &#x2265;65 years) and sex (female vs male) subgroups. The ISS-based AI model incorporating age and sex achieved high predictive performance (internal validation AUROC, 0.934; external validation AUROC range, 0.901-0.920), outperforming conventional ISS-based methods. The model also demonstrated improved fairness, showing reduced AUROC differences across subgroups (age: 0.068 vs 0.091; sex: 0.021 vs 0.046 for AI model vs ISS, respectively). Scaling an ISS-based AI model through demographic integration yielded accurate, fair, and generalisable predictions of trauma-related in-hospital mortality. This approach may enhance trauma care decision-making and enable more equitable resource allocation across diverse clinical settings. This research was supported by the MSIT (Ministry of Science and ICT), Korea, under the ITRC (Information Technology Research Center) support program (IITP-2025-RS-2024-00438239) and the Institute of Information & Communications Technology Planning & Evaluation (IITP) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (RS-2024-00509257, Global AI Frontier Lab). In addition, this research was supported by the Korea Health Technology R&D Project through the Korea Health Industry Development Institute (KHIDI), funded by the Ministry of Health & Welfare, Republic of Korea (RS-2025-02220492).