[Regional unlocking path in the north and south foothills of the Qinling Mountains from land use perspective].

内容摘要

The Qinling Mountains contain the largest forest ecosystem in central China. Examining the spatiotemporal variations of urban carbon lock-in and the pathways for unlocking it on the northern and southern piedmont of the Qinling hinterland is of great significance for achieving carbon balance in central and western China. Based on panel data from seven cities on the northern and southern piedmont of the Qinling Mountains from 2008 to 2022, we mea-sured regional carbon lock-in levels and carbon budgets from a land-use perspective, and investigated the spatio-temporal trends. We applied fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to identify the high-carbon and low-carbon configuration effects of regional carbon lock-in at both macro and micro levels. The results showed that the degree of carbon lock-in in cities on the northern and southern piedmont of the Qinling Mountains increased from 1.79 to 5.61 and exhibited a certain degree of spatial clustering between 2008 and 2022. Net carbon emissions ranged from 31.22 Mt to 113.14 Mt, while carbon sinks remained in the range of 18 Mt to 21 Mt. The ratio of total carbon emission from construction land to that from cropland was 2.96:1. At the macro scale, regional carbon lock-in could be attributed to three configuration types: weak carbon sink function, gap in regulatory function, and misaligned industrial structure. At the micro scale, we identified nine high-carbon and ten low-carbon configurations. The main drivers of carbon emissions from natural ecosystem, construction land, and cropland were environmental regulation, industrial structure, and cropping structure, respectively. The degree of carbon lock-in in cities on the northern and southern piedmont of the Qinling Mountains followed a "slow-fast-slow" growth pattern. Spatially, it was characterized by lower in the south and higher in the north, with clustering that diffused from core cities to surrounding areas. On the basis of implementing overarching environmental policies, each region should select appropriate enhancement pathways in line with resource endowments and carbon lock-in drivers, so as to achieve the goal of carbon unlocking. 秦岭是我国中部最大的森林生态系统,开展秦岭腹地南北麓城市碳锁定的时空演变和碳解锁路径研究,对中国中西部区域碳平衡具有重要意义。本研究基于2008—2022年秦岭南北麓7个城市的面板数据,通过土地利用视角测度各地区碳锁定水平和碳收支情况,并探究其时空变化趋势,最后,运用模糊集定性比较方法从宏观和微观两个维度探究区域碳锁定的高碳(低碳)组态效应。结果表明: 2008—2022年间,秦岭南北麓城市碳锁定程度从1.79上涨至5.61,并存在一定的空间聚集现象,净碳排放量为3122.03万～11314.43万t,碳汇量保持在1800万～2100万t,建设用地与耕地总碳排放之比为2.96∶1。在宏观上,区域碳锁定成因可归纳为碳汇功能乏力、监管功能缺失以及产业结构失调3个组态类型。在微观上,共识别出9条高碳和10条低碳组态构型,其中,自然生态系统、建设用地、耕地的碳排放驱动因素分别为环境规制、产业结构、农作物种植结构。秦岭南北麓城市碳锁定程度在研究期间上呈“慢-快-慢”的增长趋势,在空间上表现为南低北高、中心城市向四周发散的聚集特征,各区域在落实宏观环境政策的基础上,应根据自己的资源禀赋和碳锁定驱动因子,选择适当的提升路径从而达到碳解锁的目标。.